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3.72 AVERAGE
3.72 AVERAGE
It has taken me quite some time to sit down to write this review. I wanted to make sure my initial impression of The Black Swan was the impression I am willing to commit to writing.
First (and most importantly), I enjoyed the book's premise. I work in disaster preparedness and I enjoy reading about various ways to view improbable events. I spend a fair amount of time in my professional life comparing probability and severity and further thinking about how to communicate those thoughts to clients who may or may not regularly think about potential emergencies in such a way. Taleb's assertion that we are at least as threatened by what we don't know as we are by those threats of which we are aware is one of those points that should be repeated in disaster planning meetings again and again. Second, I believe the author to have done an admirable job of balancing highly technical mathematical ideas and accessibility for the reader.
Several reviewers from a variety of other websites criticized Taleb for including anecdotes about such characters as Yevgenia Krasnova (given the character's status as fictional). I will admit I initially found these inclusions jarring, but once I acknowledged it as a stylistic way for the author to present his material, I took no issue with their inclusion. Fictional examples do not dilute the believability of the data-based material Taleb presents. Several points made by the text highlight the often subtle nature of recognizing black swans. The black swan could be a product of incremental changes over long periods of time. The use of extreme fictional examples, then, are pithy ways to convey complex ideas over the course of a few pages.
The primary objection I have with this book is the almost snarky tone with which it is written. I can appreciate injections of humor, but to read quibs on seemingly every other page toward most academic fields was a bit much. I can appreciate disdain for certain subjects and I see no reason why an author should steer clear of acknowledging them. Any comedian, though, will tell you that over-using the same joke spoils its humor.
I am not in a position to recommend this book to anyone. I am glad I read it and I certainly wouldn't discourage anyone else from reading it. However, one should be aware of what she/he is getting into before starting it.
First (and most importantly), I enjoyed the book's premise. I work in disaster preparedness and I enjoy reading about various ways to view improbable events. I spend a fair amount of time in my professional life comparing probability and severity and further thinking about how to communicate those thoughts to clients who may or may not regularly think about potential emergencies in such a way. Taleb's assertion that we are at least as threatened by what we don't know as we are by those threats of which we are aware is one of those points that should be repeated in disaster planning meetings again and again. Second, I believe the author to have done an admirable job of balancing highly technical mathematical ideas and accessibility for the reader.
Several reviewers from a variety of other websites criticized Taleb for including anecdotes about such characters as Yevgenia Krasnova (given the character's status as fictional). I will admit I initially found these inclusions jarring, but once I acknowledged it as a stylistic way for the author to present his material, I took no issue with their inclusion. Fictional examples do not dilute the believability of the data-based material Taleb presents. Several points made by the text highlight the often subtle nature of recognizing black swans. The black swan could be a product of incremental changes over long periods of time. The use of extreme fictional examples, then, are pithy ways to convey complex ideas over the course of a few pages.
The primary objection I have with this book is the almost snarky tone with which it is written. I can appreciate injections of humor, but to read quibs on seemingly every other page toward most academic fields was a bit much. I can appreciate disdain for certain subjects and I see no reason why an author should steer clear of acknowledging them. Any comedian, though, will tell you that over-using the same joke spoils its humor.
I am not in a position to recommend this book to anyone. I am glad I read it and I certainly wouldn't discourage anyone else from reading it. However, one should be aware of what she/he is getting into before starting it.
3.5/5 rounded up to 4
First off, I think this book has a lot of really important and extremely well thought-out ideas. My main difficulty with this book is the level of complexity of those ideas and how I was unable to absorb them properly, probably because I chose an audiobook format. I can definitely recommend the book to people with some experience reading fairly complex non-fiction, but at least for me I thought an audiobook wasn't the right format. I hope I come back to this book in the future because some of the ideas put forward are definitely worth exploring again.
First off, I think this book has a lot of really important and extremely well thought-out ideas. My main difficulty with this book is the level of complexity of those ideas and how I was unable to absorb them properly, probably because I chose an audiobook format. I can definitely recommend the book to people with some experience reading fairly complex non-fiction, but at least for me I thought an audiobook wasn't the right format. I hope I come back to this book in the future because some of the ideas put forward are definitely worth exploring again.
emotional
informative
inspiring
reflective
fast-paced
I approached this book very enthusiastically but found it a difficult read!
This was a tough decision between a 2.5 and a 3, but I felt that I had to give it a 3 despite my serious dislike of the attitude of the author. If you're going to read this book, be prepared for a talking down to.
Taleb has many good points about the nature of uncertainty and predictions at a high level. Some of these things are obvious, some not so much. It's true that it's impossible to predict what you don't know, and that the biggest unknowns cause the biggest shifts in society (he calls these Black Swans). It's true that many professions that have a foundation in trying to predict future trends (Stock Traders, Businessmen, Scientists) are often blind to their own inability to do so. It's true that we live in a society where most significant discoveries have been by accident as opposed to being purposeful.
That being said, it was so damn frustratingly hard to read through his tone of pretentiousness and disdain. It comes across very much like "I'm right, and if you disagree with me, it's only because you're too daft to understand my intellect". He refers to anyone who he deems as insufficiently wary of (or too accepting of) the uncertainty of risk as "saps" or "suckers". He refers to people who base their views strictly on the known as opposed to the unknown derisively as "nerds". He spends a lot of time talking about little known philosophers and scientists (one of whom he's almost kinda probably sure discovered Relativity before Einstein but was just too cool to care about who got credit for an idea). He talks about how he goes to think tanks and watches all the "empty suits".
To put it simply, he has a lot of interesting ideas that deserve some thought and might have some merit, but it's overshadowed by the fact that I had to struggle to finish this book.
Taleb has many good points about the nature of uncertainty and predictions at a high level. Some of these things are obvious, some not so much. It's true that it's impossible to predict what you don't know, and that the biggest unknowns cause the biggest shifts in society (he calls these Black Swans). It's true that many professions that have a foundation in trying to predict future trends (Stock Traders, Businessmen, Scientists) are often blind to their own inability to do so. It's true that we live in a society where most significant discoveries have been by accident as opposed to being purposeful.
That being said, it was so damn frustratingly hard to read through his tone of pretentiousness and disdain. It comes across very much like "I'm right, and if you disagree with me, it's only because you're too daft to understand my intellect". He refers to anyone who he deems as insufficiently wary of (or too accepting of) the uncertainty of risk as "saps" or "suckers". He refers to people who base their views strictly on the known as opposed to the unknown derisively as "nerds". He spends a lot of time talking about little known philosophers and scientists (one of whom he's almost kinda probably sure discovered Relativity before Einstein but was just too cool to care about who got credit for an idea). He talks about how he goes to think tanks and watches all the "empty suits".
To put it simply, he has a lot of interesting ideas that deserve some thought and might have some merit, but it's overshadowed by the fact that I had to struggle to finish this book.
I enjoy Taleb's books and approach to life. I hate his politics. I suppose he would say that I have no skin in the finance game so my contempt for Wall Street and Capitalism is idyl venting. I suppose however as much as I see his points many of which are taken from Hayek and Popper as far as politics go I think his love of free markets and of Catalaxy in commerce has gone horribly wrong since the early 2000s when he wrote this book. I understand that fragilizing trends in modernity due to experts and technocrats who really don't understand the systems they are working with have lead to mayhem. The last twenty years have driven that point home. I am more empirical in recognizing that socialism or at least social democracy is a better deal for a person like me than I will ever get out of a Laissez-faire economy. Enough with my political rant.
Taleb is great at showing the perils of expertise and mathematical models that lead practitioners astray and the dangers of unknown unknowns and how prediction is a fools game and the difference know what and know-how. A good antidote to the neat tidy model building of experts which often is woefully mistaken.
Taleb is great at showing the perils of expertise and mathematical models that lead practitioners astray and the dangers of unknown unknowns and how prediction is a fools game and the difference know what and know-how. A good antidote to the neat tidy model building of experts which often is woefully mistaken.
I read the first two sections of this book, and stopped reading when the author claimed that it was going to get technical and difficult. I believe that I picked up the gist of the author's point of view, and didn't feel the need to go on in the book. I do agree with the author's point of view that most "soft" knowledge is not predictable, and like his emphasis on betting a little on long-shots as a good approach to investing. However, since I don't trade in general based on knowledge, and am just an invest in a mutual-fund and forget it personality, I don't believe that his approach is necessary for me. But I do agree with not reading newspapers everyday, and not fretting the small stuff.
Yes Mr Taleb can be very loose with his arguments, yes he spends a third of the book rehashing the points in "Fooled by Randomness" and yes he spends another 30 or so pages bashing many philosophers, economists and general thinkers. With all that, this book is still quite enjoyable and, at times, a very real eye opener.
Once again we are warned of the dangers of examining the world as if it was gaussian - as if it was a simple model (or that idealized models actually give useful real world advice). This warning seems prescient given what happened to the world economies starting in late 2007 (the book came out before the collapse). He also gets bonus points for dissing game theory, especially when applied to economics. Well done Mr Taleb!
If this wasn't a rehash, or maybe if it was better presented (less an obvious rehash) I would have enjoyed this book much more. As it is, if you haven't read "Fooled by Randomness" you'd get the gist here (though I think that is a better book). If you have read "Fooled...", "Black Swans" is more of the same. Still enjoyable but with a strong deja vu.
Once again we are warned of the dangers of examining the world as if it was gaussian - as if it was a simple model (or that idealized models actually give useful real world advice). This warning seems prescient given what happened to the world economies starting in late 2007 (the book came out before the collapse). He also gets bonus points for dissing game theory, especially when applied to economics. Well done Mr Taleb!
If this wasn't a rehash, or maybe if it was better presented (less an obvious rehash) I would have enjoyed this book much more. As it is, if you haven't read "Fooled by Randomness" you'd get the gist here (though I think that is a better book). If you have read "Fooled...", "Black Swans" is more of the same. Still enjoyable but with a strong deja vu.
Great book of ideas, I've been reading the incerto series in reverse order but probably won't go back to the first in series, Fooled By randomness. Only moving forward now
I've been fascinated by the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky since a professor introduced me to them during my Undergraduate years. The reality that we act so irrationally was such an eye opener to me. Mr. Taleb's book was a further jumping off point that echoed many of the sentiments I saw in Thinking: Fast and Slow, and also reminded me quite vividly of Freakonomics and Superfreakonomics by Stephen Levitt.
There was a brutal, no-nonsense honesty to this book that I wish most of my college professors had utilized, because so much of the statisical theory I learned back then applies so flimsily to the real problems at hand that it was almost not worth learning in the first place. Still, this book was quite inspiring to me, and although I completely agree with the reality he paints, I am reminded that we must know the rules in order to break them. Similarly, we understand the problem we face. Perhaps now is the time to begin considering how to fix it.
There was a brutal, no-nonsense honesty to this book that I wish most of my college professors had utilized, because so much of the statisical theory I learned back then applies so flimsily to the real problems at hand that it was almost not worth learning in the first place. Still, this book was quite inspiring to me, and although I completely agree with the reality he paints, I am reminded that we must know the rules in order to break them. Similarly, we understand the problem we face. Perhaps now is the time to begin considering how to fix it.