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3.72 AVERAGE
3.72 AVERAGE
I really liked the idea, that's why I gave it 4 stars, but it, like many business books, could have done the job in under 100 pages.
The arrogance of the author was quite intriguing, if a bit over-the-top most of the time; maybe developing a thick shield of ego is necessary to be an against-the-grain academic, but we probably didn't need to hear about it so much. Also, the flaunting of the French academics got quite tiring.
If you need help creating second opinions about business decisions, this is a good read.
The arrogance of the author was quite intriguing, if a bit over-the-top most of the time; maybe developing a thick shield of ego is necessary to be an against-the-grain academic, but we probably didn't need to hear about it so much. Also, the flaunting of the French academics got quite tiring.
If you need help creating second opinions about business decisions, this is a good read.
I first read this over 10 years ago and remembered really liking it.
For months, I’d been thinking about rereading and finally started. I wanted to see why I liked it so much and see if I still felt the same.
I don’t know, and I didn’t.
For months, I’d been thinking about rereading and finally started. I wanted to see why I liked it so much and see if I still felt the same.
I don’t know, and I didn’t.
informative
reflective
slow-paced
challenging
informative
reflective
slow-paced
This book contains interesting ideas presented in a sometimes ranty, sometime repetitive, and sometimes rambly manner. Overall, I enjoyed it, but I would not necessarily recommend it.
Taleb's topic of discussion was the black swan: those events that are not amenable to statistical modeling, at least not the common sort of statistical modeling that assumes that the domain being modeled has gaussian properties. They are highly unpredictable, high impact events, especially those that everyone, after the fact, thinks were perfectly predictable, Taleb spends much the book defining the black swan (and a good portion of it going on about why he likes or dislikes particular intellectuals). Beyond the definition, he comes back time and again to two points.
First, black swans are often just a matter of perception. A particular prediction may seem "safe" because the risks are assumed to be so unlikely that they can be ignored. When that "so unlikely" scenario occurs, it's occurrence is a black swan to those who assumed it would never happen. But to those who did not discount the risk so readily, it's what Taleb calls a grey swan -- still unpredictable, but not completely out of the blue.
Second, in a world riddled with black swans, a world that is not nearly as tidy and predictable as people would like to see it, what is the best strategy for dealing with risk? To answer this question, it helps to observe that black swans are often asymmetric: either the the maximum positive or maximum negative impact swamps the other. People who are trying to play it safe often try to avoid things with a large positive upside -- those are the things we traditionally call risky -- and instead inadvertently end up relying on those things with a large but invisible negative downside.
Taleb recommends switching this mentality: Be on the lookout for negative risks that are being waved away as too unlikely and avoid those things. Instead, put more resources into the higher risk, higher reward scenarios. In other words, don't look for moderate risk bets -- in practice they may be hidden high risk bets. Instead, split yourself between super safe bets (which, in reality are still riskier than you would expect) and bets with high risk and big potential payoff. You'll actually end up more moderate on average than taking the bets that seem moderate but really are not.
I don't know if that's a good strategy, but it's certainly an intriguing one to think about. And that really sums up my feelings about this book: I'm not sure if it's good, but it was intriguing.
Taleb's topic of discussion was the black swan: those events that are not amenable to statistical modeling, at least not the common sort of statistical modeling that assumes that the domain being modeled has gaussian properties. They are highly unpredictable, high impact events, especially those that everyone, after the fact, thinks were perfectly predictable, Taleb spends much the book defining the black swan (and a good portion of it going on about why he likes or dislikes particular intellectuals). Beyond the definition, he comes back time and again to two points.
First, black swans are often just a matter of perception. A particular prediction may seem "safe" because the risks are assumed to be so unlikely that they can be ignored. When that "so unlikely" scenario occurs, it's occurrence is a black swan to those who assumed it would never happen. But to those who did not discount the risk so readily, it's what Taleb calls a grey swan -- still unpredictable, but not completely out of the blue.
Second, in a world riddled with black swans, a world that is not nearly as tidy and predictable as people would like to see it, what is the best strategy for dealing with risk? To answer this question, it helps to observe that black swans are often asymmetric: either the the maximum positive or maximum negative impact swamps the other. People who are trying to play it safe often try to avoid things with a large positive upside -- those are the things we traditionally call risky -- and instead inadvertently end up relying on those things with a large but invisible negative downside.
Taleb recommends switching this mentality: Be on the lookout for negative risks that are being waved away as too unlikely and avoid those things. Instead, put more resources into the higher risk, higher reward scenarios. In other words, don't look for moderate risk bets -- in practice they may be hidden high risk bets. Instead, split yourself between super safe bets (which, in reality are still riskier than you would expect) and bets with high risk and big potential payoff. You'll actually end up more moderate on average than taking the bets that seem moderate but really are not.
I don't know if that's a good strategy, but it's certainly an intriguing one to think about. And that really sums up my feelings about this book: I'm not sure if it's good, but it was intriguing.
Ich musste das Buch abbrechen. Der Schreibstil ist nahezu unerträglich. Der Autor strotzt vor Selbstverliebtheit und Arroganz. Es werden Fachwort an Fachwort gereiht, sodass der Sinn des Textes völlig verzerrt wird (leicht zu lesen ist es somit nicht wirklich). Ich wurde den Eindruck nicht los, der Autor tut dies um besonders intellektuell zu wirken, wobei er mit Kritik an "Intellektuellen" und "Akademikern" nicht sparsam oder zimperlich, sprich: diplomatisch umgeht. Oft generiert der Autor eigene "Fachbegriffe" mit den Worten "ich habe dafür den Fachbegriff xyz erfunden". Die Erzählweise ist höchst unstrukturiert und alles wird so unglaublich detailliert aufbereitet (wobei ich auch hier wieder das Gefühl nicht los wurde, dass der Autor bloß seine eigene Belesenheit und sein Wissen - das er definitiv hat - in den Vordergrund drängen will...). Schon die Einleitung war derart diffus (ich wusste zu Beginn nicht, dass er mit Incerto ein von ihm erdachtes Art Mindmap meinte, welches ich erst googeln musste, um zu wissen, wovon er spricht), dass ich schon da ein schlechtes Gefühl hatte. Das Einbauen seiner zahlreichen Sprachkenntnisse (ohne Übersetzung) tat ihr Übriges.
Ich bin derart enttäuscht von dem Buch, da die Idee an sich sehr wohl höchst interessant klingt (wobei sie mir nicht gerade neu erscheint und das trotzdem sich der Autor häufig selbst zu seinem gelungenen Theorienkomplex zu beglückwünschen scheint...). Wirklich äußerst schade. Ich werde mich wohl mit Zusammenfassungen seiner Theorie aus dem Internet begnügen müssen.
Ich bin derart enttäuscht von dem Buch, da die Idee an sich sehr wohl höchst interessant klingt (wobei sie mir nicht gerade neu erscheint und das trotzdem sich der Autor häufig selbst zu seinem gelungenen Theorienkomplex zu beglückwünschen scheint...). Wirklich äußerst schade. Ich werde mich wohl mit Zusammenfassungen seiner Theorie aus dem Internet begnügen müssen.
We can't predict the biggest developments in science, culture, and news that will profoundly impact us as a whole nation, or people, or world. That thought is both exciting and very scary.
A black swan event occurred at the same time I decided to go back to school - the development of web browsers - and now I make a living at a career that didn't exist when I started grad school. It was a happy coincidence that I was studying information management at the same time that the Information Superhighway was being constructed right under our noses.
Interesting idea for exploration: Are the predictions we make about our personal lives more, or less, accurate than social scientists can make about the probable paths of whole nations?
A black swan event occurred at the same time I decided to go back to school - the development of web browsers - and now I make a living at a career that didn't exist when I started grad school. It was a happy coincidence that I was studying information management at the same time that the Information Superhighway was being constructed right under our noses.
Interesting idea for exploration: Are the predictions we make about our personal lives more, or less, accurate than social scientists can make about the probable paths of whole nations?
The more mathy the part of the book the better - worth skipping the first section and heading into the later parts. Does have some great ideas towards the end.
Read with Sean.
Read with Sean.
I think I should read a paper copy, as the audio book got a bit too complicated to follow at times.
informative
medium-paced