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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
markmyeung's review against another edition
4.0
Thoroughly enjoyed the book. Well written, and interesting
desertjarhead505's review against another edition
5.0
I love this book. It's like a course in critical thinking and the use of the scientific method to make important decisions instead of falling into a number of errors of logic that seem to be the defaults for the human mind throughout history. It's also frequently hilarious. I wish this book had existed, and I'd read it, when I was in high school, and if I had the power to do so, I'd make it a required course there now. Of course, that would never fly, given that it would equip people to see through the nonsense foisted on us by politicians, pundits, and advertisers.
dknippling's review against another edition
4.0
A look at how probability fries our brains, from a former Wall Street options trader.
This was a fun read, albeit with a couple of spots where the author switches into math-speak and assumes that you followed him from conversational/philosophical English. Humanity isn't all that smart on a practical level, and in denial about how not-smart we are: nothing new there. But the logic behind exposing that not-smartness is fun and telling. I was often fooled by the points he was making, until he threw back the veil. (The diagnosis example was the ouchiest one; I had to read that on several times to follow along. D'oh!)
Recommended if you like business books, but find that a lot of business books leave you inspired but spinning your wheels--recommended if you like Malcolm Gladwell and the 4-Hour Workweek, that sort of thing.
This was a fun read, albeit with a couple of spots where the author switches into math-speak and assumes that you followed him from conversational/philosophical English. Humanity isn't all that smart on a practical level, and in denial about how not-smart we are: nothing new there. But the logic behind exposing that not-smartness is fun and telling. I was often fooled by the points he was making, until he threw back the veil. (The diagnosis example was the ouchiest one; I had to read that on several times to follow along. D'oh!)
Recommended if you like business books, but find that a lot of business books leave you inspired but spinning your wheels--recommended if you like Malcolm Gladwell and the 4-Hour Workweek, that sort of thing.
ayahefnawy5's review against another edition
4.0
I loved this book, the style of writing is brilliant. I definitely learned alot too. I would recommend it
bertheymans's review against another edition
5.0
Brilliant book, it made me think in completely new ways.
momoxshi's review against another edition
Entertaining, yes. Insightful, somewhat yes. I'm torn as it is a mix (or at least sounds like) a mix of professional opinion and pettiness. I can't say anything about the markets themselves as I'm not in that business but for some these, I can see some arguments that there are ways and strategies that can counter randomness.
elanna76's review against another edition
informative
medium-paced
2.75
How many times can you repeat the concept that past success is not predictive of future outcomes, explain the survivor's bias, and tell an example about a wealthy professional who feels broke because he lives in a more affluent environment?
Also, why does anybody who moves to America suddenly loses every sense for complexity and stops understanding continental philosophy?
This guy went over the top, declaring that Derrida and Hegel are nonsense because, well, they are obscure to him. Him, as in: the paragon of all shrewdness and preparedness and mathematicalness and many other excellentnesses, under a thin veneer of false modesty. He went on quoting a passage from Hegel, a very difficult one, and pointing at it as in: "you see, point proven, it's not immediately understandable to me, therefore it means NOTHING (Triumphant clash of cymbals)! You see, this guy I know made a Derrida generator that mixes sentences from his books and lo and behold: it didn't make sense to me before and it doesn't after shuffling it! THEREFORE DERRIDA'S WRITING IS MEANINGLESS!" I swear to God. I would like to create a Talib generator and see what he thinks of books that re-shuffle the same chapters six times in a row...
He also has a chip on his shoulder circa the size of a carriage with horses about having to work for a living - ah, the aristocratic mediterranean past of his family! - and makes a point of being NOT AT ALL average, not at all, very refined instead thank you very much, and of enjoying the confidence of the Exceptionally Smart and/or Powerful. I can picture him wearing a cravat, sitting in a leather armchair and sipping calvados while checking the effect in the mirror, stuff like that. Still, he can't understand Derrida.
I even agreed with him on many points about randomness and Popper (that, he can understand), and there is a lot to learn from this book, but a third into it he started repeating the same three concepts all over, and his smugness stopped being fun. The narrator's voice didn't help, with that American cadence from somewhere very macho and capitalist.
I'll go back to George Eliot for a while. Or I'll re-read Derrida, sitting on my Ikea sofa with my fluffy Homer Simpson slippers, after my 9-to-5 clerical workday, sipping Barry's tea.
Also, why does anybody who moves to America suddenly loses every sense for complexity and stops understanding continental philosophy?
This guy went over the top, declaring that Derrida and Hegel are nonsense because, well, they are obscure to him. Him, as in: the paragon of all shrewdness and preparedness and mathematicalness and many other excellentnesses, under a thin veneer of false modesty. He went on quoting a passage from Hegel, a very difficult one, and pointing at it as in: "you see, point proven, it's not immediately understandable to me, therefore it means NOTHING (Triumphant clash of cymbals)! You see, this guy I know made a Derrida generator that mixes sentences from his books and lo and behold: it didn't make sense to me before and it doesn't after shuffling it! THEREFORE DERRIDA'S WRITING IS MEANINGLESS!" I swear to God. I would like to create a Talib generator and see what he thinks of books that re-shuffle the same chapters six times in a row...
He also has a chip on his shoulder circa the size of a carriage with horses about having to work for a living - ah, the aristocratic mediterranean past of his family! - and makes a point of being NOT AT ALL average, not at all, very refined instead thank you very much, and of enjoying the confidence of the Exceptionally Smart and/or Powerful. I can picture him wearing a cravat, sitting in a leather armchair and sipping calvados while checking the effect in the mirror, stuff like that. Still, he can't understand Derrida.
I even agreed with him on many points about randomness and Popper (that, he can understand), and there is a lot to learn from this book, but a third into it he started repeating the same three concepts all over, and his smugness stopped being fun. The narrator's voice didn't help, with that American cadence from somewhere very macho and capitalist.
I'll go back to George Eliot for a while. Or I'll re-read Derrida, sitting on my Ikea sofa with my fluffy Homer Simpson slippers, after my 9-to-5 clerical workday, sipping Barry's tea.
elizbulla's review against another edition
3.0
For math nerds, if you want to understand stochastic analysis as a philosophy in real life, he does a really good job of putting it on paper. Something I had wanted to do for years so I’m a bit sad I procrastinated but happy I’m not the only one thinking about this shit. I do think the author talks about tangents and pontificates a bit more than in black swan so I skimmed quite a bit through this one, but many good takeaways.
quartzmaya's review against another edition
4.0
“Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.”
I was surprised to enjoy this book. The author takes a somewhat complicated-to-understand concept and breaks it down with real-world examples to make it more digestible.
It is interesting how he uses these examples of randomness to push forward the benefits of the philosophy of stoicism.
I was surprised to enjoy this book. The author takes a somewhat complicated-to-understand concept and breaks it down with real-world examples to make it more digestible.
It is interesting how he uses these examples of randomness to push forward the benefits of the philosophy of stoicism.