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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
brewschmuck's review against another edition
2.0
Well I inflicted this on myself for two reasons
1. I’ve enjoyed browsing Taleb’s Twitter tantrums and laughing at him every time he goes out of his depth (which lately is basically always).
2. Trained in Behavioural economics I was curious to read something on the topic that comes from a self proclaimed expert rather than one with credibility. It was a good exercise to remind myself to stay in line in my own affairs.
About the book - obviously it could’ve used editing. I read the second edition (skipped the post script, because I doubt I’d find anything of particular value). Too much time is spent of referring to future chapters in the beginning and to past chapters in the middle and end. So essentially the actual content is rather slim and could be fitted in 20 pages. Clearly Taleb found what sports betters knew for a while - bet small on high odds and you will always come out on top when you draw the line. Even more clearly Taleb holds contempt to traders who actually trade. He masturbates circles around their loses and prides himself on his “revolutionary” tactic, which honestly just screams inferiority complex. He really tries to position himself as a philosopher, but at the same time he’s so out of his depth that it shows him in a rather comical light.
In essence Taleb is what you’d expect from a high schooler who watched a few PragerU videos to be. There’s a certain type of person that Taleb followers are and reading this book answers the question why he gets followed exactly by such people. He speaks as vague as possible and occasionally makes an edgy claim that’s easily refutable. However his message is “fuck the haters, I put wax in my ears” and this solves the whole problem of actually defending an opinion. Naturally this appeals to hordes of people who want to be smart, but are too lazy to put in the work so instead, they just pick superficial knowledge, parrot it, and end the communication before they can be debated so that they don’t have to bear the mental cost of being humiliated. Ultimately Taleb and his followers are the same insecure person trying go block the mean world out and convince themselves that they are not mediocre, others are just favoured by randomness.
1. I’ve enjoyed browsing Taleb’s Twitter tantrums and laughing at him every time he goes out of his depth (which lately is basically always).
2. Trained in Behavioural economics I was curious to read something on the topic that comes from a self proclaimed expert rather than one with credibility. It was a good exercise to remind myself to stay in line in my own affairs.
About the book - obviously it could’ve used editing. I read the second edition (skipped the post script, because I doubt I’d find anything of particular value). Too much time is spent of referring to future chapters in the beginning and to past chapters in the middle and end. So essentially the actual content is rather slim and could be fitted in 20 pages. Clearly Taleb found what sports betters knew for a while - bet small on high odds and you will always come out on top when you draw the line. Even more clearly Taleb holds contempt to traders who actually trade. He masturbates circles around their loses and prides himself on his “revolutionary” tactic, which honestly just screams inferiority complex. He really tries to position himself as a philosopher, but at the same time he’s so out of his depth that it shows him in a rather comical light.
In essence Taleb is what you’d expect from a high schooler who watched a few PragerU videos to be. There’s a certain type of person that Taleb followers are and reading this book answers the question why he gets followed exactly by such people. He speaks as vague as possible and occasionally makes an edgy claim that’s easily refutable. However his message is “fuck the haters, I put wax in my ears” and this solves the whole problem of actually defending an opinion. Naturally this appeals to hordes of people who want to be smart, but are too lazy to put in the work so instead, they just pick superficial knowledge, parrot it, and end the communication before they can be debated so that they don’t have to bear the mental cost of being humiliated. Ultimately Taleb and his followers are the same insecure person trying go block the mean world out and convince themselves that they are not mediocre, others are just favoured by randomness.
josevillalta's review against another edition
3.0
Who should read this book? No one should really read this book. I think the target audience will be what the author calls "empty suits" MBA types that know how to sound smart, how to give good powerpoint presentations that can use a few smart-sounding bullet points. If you are looking for a popular science take, this is light on the science, but it's in there. There are few interesting ideas here narrated by a person who thinks very highly of himself. However I do like how the author states plainly and honestly that he too can be fooled. He admits that he is also all too human and we are fooled all the time.
The ideas in this book are interesting, but you can read do better and read "Thinking fast and slow" by Daniel Kahneman. "Intuition Pumps" By Daniel Dennet, "Freakonomics" by Dubner and Levit and "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver.
The ideas in this book are interesting, but you can read do better and read "Thinking fast and slow" by Daniel Kahneman. "Intuition Pumps" By Daniel Dennet, "Freakonomics" by Dubner and Levit and "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver.
domnica's review against another edition
5.0
This book was suggested in book club and as everyone else, I looked on Goodreads at reviews to see the public opinion and was intrigued by so many remarks on the author’s ‘inappropriate’ tone… that made me think his opinion is perhaps contradictory with what the mass population thinks. The author even states in the book that he will never read the reviews of this book and that “books need not be written to satisfy a pre-defined labelled audience, but that a book will find its own unique set of readers”.
Throughout the book, the author describes different life examples, all having in common the table of confusion explained at the beginning. He aims at clarifying that “if there is one cause for this confusion […] it is our inability to think critically - we may enjoy presenting conjectures as truth.” and how we as individuals “are not wired in a way to understand probability […]” because “most results in probability are entirely counterintuitive” to us. Therefore, he’s advice in regards of learning statistics, because too many read explanations without understanding.
I enjoyed every chapter of this book and highly recommend it to everyone. It might not seem like your ideal book, but if you receive the knowledge with an open mindset, you’ll learn a few interesting things.
“Remember that nobody accepts randomness in his own success, only his failure.”
Throughout the book, the author describes different life examples, all having in common the table of confusion explained at the beginning. He aims at clarifying that “if there is one cause for this confusion […] it is our inability to think critically - we may enjoy presenting conjectures as truth.” and how we as individuals “are not wired in a way to understand probability […]” because “most results in probability are entirely counterintuitive” to us. Therefore, he’s advice in regards of learning statistics, because too many read explanations without understanding.
I enjoyed every chapter of this book and highly recommend it to everyone. It might not seem like your ideal book, but if you receive the knowledge with an open mindset, you’ll learn a few interesting things.
“Remember that nobody accepts randomness in his own success, only his failure.”
in_between_pages's review against another edition
3.0
Some good arguements here and there but presented in a total mess of utterly bad writing. If this book was written in a better, more organized fashion, then it probably would be a must-buy.
calestini's review against another edition
4.0
Taleb has great views of the world, and a fantastic sense of empiricism. His love for real-life and distrust in too much academia is paradoxically proven and well-documented in this book. His writing style is sometimes peculiar but he does not fail to deliver the content on the importance of understanding (and embracing) uncertainty.
nickgoe's review against another edition
4.0
An interesting book that highlights that really just highlights that humans' inability to comprehend statistics is bad for society.
dtd's review against another edition
2.0
Listened to this in the car- did not enjoy it. Lots of circular speak.
jwh891's review against another edition
4.0
I am no expert on anything financial or statistical. In fact, I am just about illiterate when it comes to higher math (anything about Trig); but, I did find Taleb's book "Fooled By Randomness" to be an interesting read into the hidden power of statistics and randomness in our lives. And how that randomness can be often erroneously seen as something other than random luck (skill, intelligence, charisma, etc.)
I found myself looking at the world through new eyes as I worked my way through this book and realized I was quite often fooled by randomness and a random fool!
Taleb does a fantastic job of taking very complex ideas and theories and relating them, through anecdotes, in a way that a layman like myself can understand.
A lot of people have complained about the author's somewhat arrogant tone, it put me off a bit a first, but once you get past that "noise", you find that what the author is saying is truth, and he does poke quite a bit of fun at himself as well, so he is not quite as arrogant as I first thought, simply opinionated. And for good reason.
I plan on reading the second in this "trilogy": "Black Swans", before moving on to the third, "Antifragile"
I found myself looking at the world through new eyes as I worked my way through this book and realized I was quite often fooled by randomness and a random fool!
Taleb does a fantastic job of taking very complex ideas and theories and relating them, through anecdotes, in a way that a layman like myself can understand.
A lot of people have complained about the author's somewhat arrogant tone, it put me off a bit a first, but once you get past that "noise", you find that what the author is saying is truth, and he does poke quite a bit of fun at himself as well, so he is not quite as arrogant as I first thought, simply opinionated. And for good reason.
I plan on reading the second in this "trilogy": "Black Swans", before moving on to the third, "Antifragile"