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rifledoc1's review against another edition
3.0
In “The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology” Ray Kurzweil presents the ambitions and optimistic thesis that in the near future human intelligence will be surpassed by that of machine intelligence. Kurzweil’s predictions differ form others who have hypothesized that one day the machines will “take over” by convincingly arguing that instead, machine and artificial intelligence of the future represents the next, and most significant, step in human evolution. This evolutionary leap will in turn quickly let human based intelligence spread throughout the universe bringing with it almost unimaginable benefits to a human kind vastly different from that of today. The singularity, the point when biological humans are surpassed by superior machine and artificial intelligence based humans, is facilitated by the continued exponential growth of technology. Specifically the technologies of genetics, nano-technology, and robotics. Kurzweil gives detailed scientifically grounded explanations of how these technologies result in the singularity in only around fifty years from now, and explains the many benefits to human kind that result of the singularity. Kurzweil also does a commendable job also explaining the possible negative side effects of the singularity, as well as presenting the prevailing counter augments to his ideas. This was an audio book read for me, but I think I would have enjoyed the book more if I had read it in a paper or e-book format. This is because Kurzweil used a good deal of charts, graphs, and formulas to explain his main points. While these were available online, for me accessing them was not practical since I usually listened as I drove to and from work. All in all, Kurzweil provides a compelling argument that if anything will make you think differently about what the future may hold.
Whey read this book. This book was recently added to the Commandant of the Marine Corps’ Professional Reading List in the intermediate officer category. While Kurzweil touches on how warfare could be effected by the singularity, the book is not about war or war fighting. However, in my opinion, I think it is on the Commandant’s reading list, and worth reading by military professionals, because it makes you think seriously about how technology is, and could change, not only the character of war, but perhaps it nature. The exponential growth in technology presented by Kurzweil is if anything another wake up call that warfighters need to realize the pace at which technology is evolving and be able to evolve with it in order to maintain a warfighting edge. If the singularity happens in the manner Kurzweil predicts, staying ahead of technology not enough though. Warfare would fundamentally change. The nature of war would shift from the use of violence to impose your will to the use of information to impose your will. That would be a difficult paradigm shift to make, but if it were to come to pass, those that could not make the shift would not succeed. While it might seem far fetched, we can see at least the start of a move in importance of information as a weapon. Cyber warfare and information operations writ large are rapidly becoming more and more critical capiblities for all military services around the globe, and after reading this book I think the warfighter who dismisses the importance of technology and information in future war does so at their own peril. (Audio book read).
Whey read this book. This book was recently added to the Commandant of the Marine Corps’ Professional Reading List in the intermediate officer category. While Kurzweil touches on how warfare could be effected by the singularity, the book is not about war or war fighting. However, in my opinion, I think it is on the Commandant’s reading list, and worth reading by military professionals, because it makes you think seriously about how technology is, and could change, not only the character of war, but perhaps it nature. The exponential growth in technology presented by Kurzweil is if anything another wake up call that warfighters need to realize the pace at which technology is evolving and be able to evolve with it in order to maintain a warfighting edge. If the singularity happens in the manner Kurzweil predicts, staying ahead of technology not enough though. Warfare would fundamentally change. The nature of war would shift from the use of violence to impose your will to the use of information to impose your will. That would be a difficult paradigm shift to make, but if it were to come to pass, those that could not make the shift would not succeed. While it might seem far fetched, we can see at least the start of a move in importance of information as a weapon. Cyber warfare and information operations writ large are rapidly becoming more and more critical capiblities for all military services around the globe, and after reading this book I think the warfighter who dismisses the importance of technology and information in future war does so at their own peril. (Audio book read).
tomasz99's review
4.0
Książka napisana dość technicznym żargonem, autor zna się na tym, co pisze.
Minęło już tyle czasu, że można sprawdzić pewne przewidywania Kurzweila - sprawdziły się w 50%.
Minęło już tyle czasu, że można sprawdzić pewne przewidywania Kurzweila - sprawdziły się w 50%.
nicofic's review
adventurous
hopeful
informative
inspiring
lighthearted
reflective
relaxing
medium-paced
5.0
gray_ghost's review against another edition
5.0
An incredibly well-reasoned examination of the nearly unlimited potential of this century and what lies beyond.
sbenzell's review
3.0
If you've been paying any attention to the internet or science fiction, you have probably run into the concept of the singularity in one way or another. There are several versions of this idea, from the most limited (once we have developed a human level machine intelligence, it will likely be a short time until we have super-human machine intelligences) to the most expansive (all technological changes are accelerating, and this acceleration is itself accelerating). Mr Kurzweil, perhaps the leading prophet of the singularity (the choice of title is not arbitrary) takes this view to the extreme. Technology is exploding and it will be WONDERFUL. He posits that if you live to 2029 you will get to live forever, that around that time a human level AI will emerge, and that within a few centuries Man (and its benign, respectful, ultra-wise descendants) will stretch to occupy all of the universe within reach (Kurzweil suggests that even the speed of light will yield to our powerful virtue!)
When I began this book, I thought I would be rating it a 2. Most of the ideas are tired for me. While I don't understand enough science to say so definitively his take on the progress of nano-science seems particularly far-fetched and unmoored to the realities of research. Where he does seem to be on track is with his predictions about AI though. While other branches of science he was optimistic about - nano tech and bio tech in particular - have sputtered along, AI tech has continued to grow by leaps an bounds. Is it ridiculous to think that we might have GAI by the time I am 40? What would the consequences be if everything went OK? This book is most successful when it sticks to arguing that AI tech has been growing more rapidly than generally acknowledged, and pointing out possible upside consequences of this trend.
Kurzweil is here to spread the good news. In the most effective sections of the book, he imagines a dialogue between a contemporary human, humans at different points of his Utopian future, and various historical characters (Freud, Darwin, and Ned Ludd most notably). In these sections I feel he successfully makes the case that a singularity COULD be a very good thing for almost everyone. While Ludd levels valid objections, each of these is at least potentially addressed. Would the machines wipe us out? Not if they love and respect us. Would life lose meaning without death? Not if approached with the correct attitude. Would we still be human after these radical changes? We would be human if we wanted to be. Would people live valuable lives in a virtual reality? Yes, and especially if we were allowed to interact with each other.
This book has 3 major failings however. First, as noted above, the book seems much more accurate in its science when talking about AI tech than when talking about nano or bio tech. This is a serious drawback, because Kurzweil believes these innovations to be important, if not critical, complements to GAI in his vision. Second, while he makes a long, anecdotal case that technological change is accelerating, he leaves out important counterarguments. I am thinking in particular here about a branch of economic research indicating that technological innovations may be getting increasingly hard to find (the 'fishing out' hypothesis). The idea that future ideas might be harder to discover -- intuitively very plausible! -- is not represented beyond a strawman. Finally, and most importantly, Kurzweil in his zeal rejects almost out of hand the possibility of a catastrophe from the singularity. While he does note that some techs are dangerous (and he discusses - novel to me - the idea of an immune system of nano-bots to fight anyone trying to maliciously start a grey-goo scenario) he does not see this possibility for AI. However it is clear to me that the creation of a super-intelligence will be one of the most dangerous moments in human history. If a super powerful being decides it wants to rule us it will. Therefore it is incredibly important that we think through the consequences of bringing such a being into existence.
Such is the thesis of the next book I review - a great complement to this one - Superintelligence by Bostrom.
When I began this book, I thought I would be rating it a 2. Most of the ideas are tired for me. While I don't understand enough science to say so definitively his take on the progress of nano-science seems particularly far-fetched and unmoored to the realities of research. Where he does seem to be on track is with his predictions about AI though. While other branches of science he was optimistic about - nano tech and bio tech in particular - have sputtered along, AI tech has continued to grow by leaps an bounds. Is it ridiculous to think that we might have GAI by the time I am 40? What would the consequences be if everything went OK? This book is most successful when it sticks to arguing that AI tech has been growing more rapidly than generally acknowledged, and pointing out possible upside consequences of this trend.
Kurzweil is here to spread the good news. In the most effective sections of the book, he imagines a dialogue between a contemporary human, humans at different points of his Utopian future, and various historical characters (Freud, Darwin, and Ned Ludd most notably). In these sections I feel he successfully makes the case that a singularity COULD be a very good thing for almost everyone. While Ludd levels valid objections, each of these is at least potentially addressed. Would the machines wipe us out? Not if they love and respect us. Would life lose meaning without death? Not if approached with the correct attitude. Would we still be human after these radical changes? We would be human if we wanted to be. Would people live valuable lives in a virtual reality? Yes, and especially if we were allowed to interact with each other.
This book has 3 major failings however. First, as noted above, the book seems much more accurate in its science when talking about AI tech than when talking about nano or bio tech. This is a serious drawback, because Kurzweil believes these innovations to be important, if not critical, complements to GAI in his vision. Second, while he makes a long, anecdotal case that technological change is accelerating, he leaves out important counterarguments. I am thinking in particular here about a branch of economic research indicating that technological innovations may be getting increasingly hard to find (the 'fishing out' hypothesis). The idea that future ideas might be harder to discover -- intuitively very plausible! -- is not represented beyond a strawman. Finally, and most importantly, Kurzweil in his zeal rejects almost out of hand the possibility of a catastrophe from the singularity. While he does note that some techs are dangerous (and he discusses - novel to me - the idea of an immune system of nano-bots to fight anyone trying to maliciously start a grey-goo scenario) he does not see this possibility for AI. However it is clear to me that the creation of a super-intelligence will be one of the most dangerous moments in human history. If a super powerful being decides it wants to rule us it will. Therefore it is incredibly important that we think through the consequences of bringing such a being into existence.
Such is the thesis of the next book I review - a great complement to this one - Superintelligence by Bostrom.
pct196's review
5.0
Excellent. Ray has one of the most optimistic outlooks on the future of anybody I know. I hope he's write.
mahdi_eth's review
adventurous
challenging
hopeful
informative
inspiring
reflective
slow-paced
5.0
The best book I've ever read.
maxpatiiuk's review
5.0
I like how optimistic (perhaps overly optimistic) the author is.
It is a great contract to many other optimists, who are not optimistic enough about the future.
It is a great contract to many other optimists, who are not optimistic enough about the future.
kristinaray717's review
3.0
Very interesting stuff. When it comes to the future, just as present day life, it is all matter of perception. Will things be the way Ray describes? He definitely has a piece to the puzzle. His perception of things to come is both thought provoking, and worthwhile.