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4.36 AVERAGE
4.36 AVERAGE
informative
reflective
fast-paced
This was one of the best (and most timely) books I’ve read this year. When I picked it up, I thought that it would be about strategic choke points in general, primarily physical chokepoints. I was pleasantly surprised to find out that the sole focus of this book is economic warfare and US exploitation of dominance over the global financial system as a new kind of chokepoint. The book explores the development of economies as a new kind of warfare, and tells the story of this practice through four conflicts.
1. US sanctions on Iran leading up to and after the nuclear deal.
2. Sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Crimea.
3. Economic warfare against China under both Trump and Biden, mostly to curb the impending development of a China controlled chokepoint through companies like Huawei.
4. The Russian invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine.
In discussing each of these eras, the author explains where sanctions were effective, where opportunities were missed, and where and why sanctions failed.
After discussing these events, the author explores the future of sanctions, tariffs, and export controls. Specifically, he explains how they can be used more effectively in the future with keener political maneuvering, and how their overuse or misuse may lead to their blunting or a turn of the tides against US supremacy in this type of warfare. Already, countries most targeted by US economic aggression are taking steps to create a bulwark against future sanctions. Simultaneously, the more calculated, scalpel-like use of sanctions has been replaced by a shotgunning hammer.
This book ties together economics, politics, technology, history and strategy, resulting in a fascinating recounting of the largest conflicts of the last few decades. I highly recommend it if any of the above topics are of interest.
1. US sanctions on Iran leading up to and after the nuclear deal.
2. Sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Crimea.
3. Economic warfare against China under both Trump and Biden, mostly to curb the impending development of a China controlled chokepoint through companies like Huawei.
4. The Russian invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine.
In discussing each of these eras, the author explains where sanctions were effective, where opportunities were missed, and where and why sanctions failed.
After discussing these events, the author explores the future of sanctions, tariffs, and export controls. Specifically, he explains how they can be used more effectively in the future with keener political maneuvering, and how their overuse or misuse may lead to their blunting or a turn of the tides against US supremacy in this type of warfare. Already, countries most targeted by US economic aggression are taking steps to create a bulwark against future sanctions. Simultaneously, the more calculated, scalpel-like use of sanctions has been replaced by a shotgunning hammer.
This book ties together economics, politics, technology, history and strategy, resulting in a fascinating recounting of the largest conflicts of the last few decades. I highly recommend it if any of the above topics are of interest.
informative
slow-paced
dark
informative
reflective
medium-paced
A comprehensive overview of the use of different economic sanctions by G7 countries over the last 20 ish years. The book covers in detail sanctions on Iran, Russia (2014), significant Chinese companies, and Russia (2022).
The book covers in detail the dynamics of the decisions to implement sanctions. The major players are described and the political considerations in the US and globally surrounding these decisions. The book also chronicles the successes and failures of the sanctions. The book ends with some possible outcomes that could result from the sanctions.
The book is extremely detailed and well written. It is mostly broken up into 5-8 page chapters which is nice for breaking up the content. The author breaks down sanctions as best he can into something the reader can understand, but this book ultimately feels like it is written for policy wonks.
The author is clearly pro sanctions as a weapon and thinks they can have a significant impact. In the last chapter he proposes that the US should have a standing economic council that could propose and study sanctions more proactively. The author also believes that sanctions may need to be proactively announced and/or imposed prior to major events (like the invasion of Ukraine). While I find these to be good ideas, I find it hard for the US to actually implement these policies and I find it difficult to see the EU agreeing to such proactive measures. The book is also a bit dry at times.
Overall, I found the book to be very interesting. The parts about the sanctions imposed as result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were fascinating. I would recommend for anyone with an interest in how the US leverages the financial advantages it currently has.
The book covers in detail the dynamics of the decisions to implement sanctions. The major players are described and the political considerations in the US and globally surrounding these decisions. The book also chronicles the successes and failures of the sanctions. The book ends with some possible outcomes that could result from the sanctions.
The book is extremely detailed and well written. It is mostly broken up into 5-8 page chapters which is nice for breaking up the content. The author breaks down sanctions as best he can into something the reader can understand, but this book ultimately feels like it is written for policy wonks.
The author is clearly pro sanctions as a weapon and thinks they can have a significant impact. In the last chapter he proposes that the US should have a standing economic council that could propose and study sanctions more proactively. The author also believes that sanctions may need to be proactively announced and/or imposed prior to major events (like the invasion of Ukraine). While I find these to be good ideas, I find it hard for the US to actually implement these policies and I find it difficult to see the EU agreeing to such proactive measures. The book is also a bit dry at times.
Overall, I found the book to be very interesting. The parts about the sanctions imposed as result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were fascinating. I would recommend for anyone with an interest in how the US leverages the financial advantages it currently has.
challenging
dark
informative
medium-paced
informative
medium-paced
Timely read, and really captures the competition unfolding right now. Lots of questions about just how long this era may last, but I did not appreciate how new so much of these policy tools are. A fascinating history.
informative
reflective
medium-paced
- Treasury employees did not want to cause Iran to be unable to sell its oil, which would spike up the price of oil. They came up with ways to sanction Iran and eventually cause inflation (and unrest) without harming US and EU markets. They forced Iran to keep its oil money in foreign escrow accounts. They went to individual Banks and convince them not to do business with Iran.
- A freeze in Iran's behavior was beneficial for the US because it delayed Iran's ability to get nuclear weapons.
- After the US government made progress in their diplomatic conversations with Iran, the Treasury wanted to convince foreign banks to now do business with Iran, but the banks were too gun shy.
- Russia invaded Crimea and Ukraine. The US came up with scalpel ideas of forcing Russia to stop its invasion. They refuse to let banks loan new money, so that Russian companies would have problems rolling over its debt which they normally roll over every 3 months. This caused massive inflation. The Russian Central Bank raised interest rates to 17% which then caused a bank run.
- Russia interfered with the 2016 election because they knew that Trump would be more amenable to friendly relations with Russia.
- Trump's administration wanted to sanction ZTE for violating the Iran sanction. Trump backtracked. Then they wanted to sanction Huawei for the same thing, plus they had worries about security with 5G. Trump initially backtracked, but in 2020, his administration went full-force after Huawei and forced global companies to choose between Huawei or American technologies. Taiwan Semiconductor chose the US technologies.
- Obama had used the sanctions as a scalpel, always to stop a certain behavior (nuclear program, invading Ukraine). Trump used them broadly with no end in sight.
- When Russia invaded Ukraine, the EU stopped purchasing oil. The US did a price cap in order to prevent oil prices from spiking up, which would help Russia and hurt the US midterm elections.
- Now the US government takes steps to prevent China's technologies and supply chain from having too much power. Yellen referred to "friendshoring" which means building supply chains on allies and not just having universal free trade.
- During the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 covid pandemic, the Fed used swap lines to other major central banks to be the "global lender of last resort" for the dollar. This shored up faith in the dollar, keeping its prominence as the reserve currency.
- Trump has been gleeful towards the prospect of sanctioning every country besides Russia
This has made BRIC unite to defend themselves, and countries move away from SWIFT and the dollar.
- Each set of sanctions is decided ad hoc and based on a bunch of last minute negotiations between G7, EU, US. It is not planned with a permanent department. This is partly because countries are afraid of blowback onto their own economies, so they're only willing to do it when they see something drastic such as the ravages of war.
- Because the forecasts are done suddenly, they tend to be cautious. Both Obama and Biden ratcheted up sanctions against Russia gradually, which gave Russia a time to adapt and build up resistance.
- Gradually countries may become less economically interdependent on each other. At the end of the Cold war, there was less geopolitical strife, especially during the years when the US had an advantage in terms of military, economy, technology. It was secure to increase globalization, because the US maintained peace. Now there are dueling superpowers, and each chokehold can be used, so economies may become less dependent on each other over time.
- Gradually countries may become less economically interdependent on each other. At the end of the Cold war, there was less geopolitical strife, especially during the years when the US had an advantage in terms of military, economy, technology. It was secure to increase globalization, because the US maintained peace. Now there are dueling superpowers, and each chokehold can be used, so economies may become less dependent on each other over time.
Informative book on a very important topic -- the rise of economic warfare and what it means to the age of globalization and the dollar.
informative
reflective
medium-paced
hopeful
informative
slow-paced