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phsn's review
4.0
“Noise is rarely recognised, bias is the star of the show.”
A book attempt to redress the balance.
Bias: systematic deviation
Noise: random scatter
Judgement: a form of measurement with human mind as instrument
Theme:
• Wherever there is judgment, there is noise —and more of it than you think.
• Whenever there is prediction, there is ignorance, and probably more of it than we think.
Component of noise:
✔️error into bias & system noise
✔️system noise into level noise & pattern noise
✔️pattern noise into stable pattern noise & occasion noise
Key Points:
1- Judgement is difficult because the world is complicated, uncertain place —disagreement is unavoidable wherever
2- The extent of these disagreements is much greater than expected
3- Noise can be reduced —some methods adopted to reduce noise can simultaneously reduce bias as well.
4- Noise reduction efforts often raise objections and run into serious difficulties.
5- Poor group dynamics add/amplify noise
Fav parts:
• A good question to ask that caught my attention is, “How would a value of such an improvement compare with the value of reducing bias?” —Suggested few methods
• Variability is expected, not just between us but within ourselves which influenced by countless factors.
• “How good is human judgement in relative to formula? How noise impairs clinical judgement?” —mechanical aggregation outperforms clinical judgement
• “We think we understand what is going on here, but could we have predicted it?”
Not up to my expectations :( BUT, they did made this book easier to understand & in short chapters thus suitable for #beginners. Good that each chapters ended with brief generalised propositions but some inputs are not constant throughout the book. Recommended to those who would like to start reading on psychology & anyone interested in learning/reducing effects of noise in decision making.
“Noise is often a larger component of error than bias —bias is a compelling figure, while noise is the background to which we pay no attention”
mkesten's review
3.0
I found the first 200 pages of this book to be almost impenetrable and frequently forgot a sentence shortly after reading it.
That said, the book and its import improve.
If you’ve read Kahneman’s earlier work, Thinking Fast and Slow, you’ll be familiar with the use of a core metaphor to the argument. While the book says it’s about “Noise” it’s really about the statistical sources of bad judgments.
Noise is the shorthand systems engineers use to explain flaws in the system.
Kahneman et al want us to take a systems view of bad judgments, and bad judges. There is hope for them yet.
Forestalling judgment until the evidence is collected, breaking down complex judgments to their constituent parts, employing baseline comparisons, and employing objective referees will all yield better judgments in business, in law and medicine, and in life.
I certainly hope so. I have trouble just dealing with the volume of judgments I am called upon to make everyday in business.
There is a lot here to think about, especially about the people who are the experts we rely upon, and how they frequently get important things wrong.
That said, the book and its import improve.
If you’ve read Kahneman’s earlier work, Thinking Fast and Slow, you’ll be familiar with the use of a core metaphor to the argument. While the book says it’s about “Noise” it’s really about the statistical sources of bad judgments.
Noise is the shorthand systems engineers use to explain flaws in the system.
Kahneman et al want us to take a systems view of bad judgments, and bad judges. There is hope for them yet.
Forestalling judgment until the evidence is collected, breaking down complex judgments to their constituent parts, employing baseline comparisons, and employing objective referees will all yield better judgments in business, in law and medicine, and in life.
I certainly hope so. I have trouble just dealing with the volume of judgments I am called upon to make everyday in business.
There is a lot here to think about, especially about the people who are the experts we rely upon, and how they frequently get important things wrong.
kaydenj's review
informative
reflective
medium-paced
3.75
Somewhat oversimplified and repetitive with some work cited being outdated and incorrect but generally a good overview of the topic
vireogirl's review
4.0
Fairly academic, but well explained for the lay person. The decision hygiene concept makes a lot of sense and is helpful for making business predictions.