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3.72 AVERAGE
3.72 AVERAGE
This book is essential for the modern-day empiricist interested in the nature of the high-impact random event. The writing style is very conversational and its arguments are eloquently and entertainingly stated. Furthermore Taleb does a great job of supporting his philosophy and theories with some math and domain-specific examples, keeping them firmly grounded in the real world. About the only negative thing I can say about the book is that it's a bit long-winded and there might be just a bit too many asides. Most of them are alright, but maybe a few could easily be cut and improve the overall focus of the book. That being said, it's exuberance is also part of its charm and I can't say that all readers would find this to be an issue at all.
Okay, let's see if I got it straight...
An anti-academic academic weaves a non-narrative narrative about predicting the unpredictable into the theory that rigid theories are bad.
Oh, and count on things you can't conceive of happening happening.
Something like that.
Taleb's observations on the expectations and biases we hold, especially when estimating risk or uncertainty, are pretty dead on.
His key practical point is about the need for a NON-parametric look at any situation in which low-probability events can carry a high-impact. He's almost certainly right that we over-apply the "bell curve" and other normalized frequency distributions, with the consequence of underestimating the probability of very rare events.
But he's kind of a jerk about it.
If you don't mind that kind of thing (I don't, really), then this is a pretty good read. If you've thought along these lines before, though, don't expect to be startled. There are no magic recipes for success in Taleb's "Extremistan" here, just some common sense principles that you can pretty much derive from the first 50 pages of the book.
My only other complaint--and it's not one I can really spell out with any confidence--is this: I came away with this diffuse sense of overconfidence from Taleb...that he believes his metaphors and conjectures, etc. apply in more instances than they actually do.
All told, it's a good book, and if I could force it on MBA graduates, I would. I'd just package it with a single grain of salt.
An anti-academic academic weaves a non-narrative narrative about predicting the unpredictable into the theory that rigid theories are bad.
Oh, and count on things you can't conceive of happening happening.
Something like that.
Taleb's observations on the expectations and biases we hold, especially when estimating risk or uncertainty, are pretty dead on.
His key practical point is about the need for a NON-parametric look at any situation in which low-probability events can carry a high-impact. He's almost certainly right that we over-apply the "bell curve" and other normalized frequency distributions, with the consequence of underestimating the probability of very rare events.
But he's kind of a jerk about it.
If you don't mind that kind of thing (I don't, really), then this is a pretty good read. If you've thought along these lines before, though, don't expect to be startled. There are no magic recipes for success in Taleb's "Extremistan" here, just some common sense principles that you can pretty much derive from the first 50 pages of the book.
My only other complaint--and it's not one I can really spell out with any confidence--is this: I came away with this diffuse sense of overconfidence from Taleb...that he believes his metaphors and conjectures, etc. apply in more instances than they actually do.
All told, it's a good book, and if I could force it on MBA graduates, I would. I'd just package it with a single grain of salt.
Another that I'll revisit in the next year or so. I think I visited this slightly too early on my economics journey, but I think I understood the base of it. I think the text MAY be difficult to parse in the same vein as Nietzche. A genius stream of conciousness that doesn't make for light reading.
That being said, this is one of those books that is WIDELY referenced. (No fewer than six other books in my recent reading have mentioned it, and it's less than twenty years old). So it's one of those significant non-fiction titles that all non-fiction readers have read. I just can't help but feel that so much of the book's strength is in teaching you the difference between Platonic ideals and reality, and yet fails to do so because of the way the author writes. Which is odd, because it's metaphor, that of the Black Swan, has become the DE FACTO explanation for ruinous circumstances since its publication.
I need to read it again. Honestly. Sort of really snarky and intolerable in a way that made me want to rate it lower.
That being said, this is one of those books that is WIDELY referenced. (No fewer than six other books in my recent reading have mentioned it, and it's less than twenty years old). So it's one of those significant non-fiction titles that all non-fiction readers have read. I just can't help but feel that so much of the book's strength is in teaching you the difference between Platonic ideals and reality, and yet fails to do so because of the way the author writes. Which is odd, because it's metaphor, that of the Black Swan, has become the DE FACTO explanation for ruinous circumstances since its publication.
I need to read it again. Honestly. Sort of really snarky and intolerable in a way that made me want to rate it lower.
Astounded by the depth of work done by NNT to write about the philosophy and this can be understood just by looking at the bibliography section. I took my own time to process what I have just read. Repititive, Sort of confusing, Serious, Mind-bending book.
While the book covers some important topics and provides some solid insight, it takes far too long to make its points. Plus, the author is an arrogant blowhard who goes out of his way to disparage and insult broad classes of people. The book covers these points (among others):
* Some risk domains are hugely affected by outlier events
* Many self-proclaimed experts use models that diminish the importance of these events.
* These outliers cannot be predicted; the only reasonable approaches are to avoid them or to protect against them (insurance, options, etc.).
That's about all you need to know.
* Some risk domains are hugely affected by outlier events
* Many self-proclaimed experts use models that diminish the importance of these events.
* These outliers cannot be predicted; the only reasonable approaches are to avoid them or to protect against them (insurance, options, etc.).
That's about all you need to know.
As I began reading The Black Swan, my wife wondered if the black swan was a dancer in swan lake. I’ll assure you, my reading hasn’t taken a turn into classical dancing. Instead, I’ve become intrigued by interesting events. Most of the time black swans are what the subtitle says: highly improbable. So The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is about the random events that aren’t probable, but have a major impact on the world – or your world. Those impacts can be positive or negative.
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Click here to read the full review
fascinating and entertaining book, despite Taleb's unbridled arrogance
The point he is making is a good one, yet the book feels bloated and repetitive, and I had a hard time not putting it down before reaching the conclusion...also, for somebody who is putting down a lot of people for being arrogant with regard to their self-perceived intellect, wisdom, or insights, he comes across as very, very pompous, I found it hard to bear at times...
Repeats thoughts from prior book. Did you wish for more anecdotes about how impressive Taleb is, then here is the book for you. For somebody so concerned about the limits of our knowledge, he proclaims “facts” about life without any proof or analysis. He will criticize a Nobel prize winning who conducted research in economics by analogy to someone thinking the Atkins diet is successful when Taleb knows the healthiest diet is Mediterranean. His ideas against bell curve and the probability of improbable events is useful and fascinating if only a humbler and self aware writer was discussing it.