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3.72 AVERAGE
3.72 AVERAGE
I liked the book. Nassim points out some very real problems in the field of finance, but he also ignores a lot of literature done exactly on the problem he is trying to pinpoint, i.e. tail events. Still, I think that his mental model that differentiates randomness between mediocristan and extremistan is super useful, and something that should be talked about more in statistics and econometrics classes.
Challenged my thoughts with a pinch of humour + realism.
Black Swan event;
• an outlier/rarity
• extreme impact
• retrospective
Black Swan logic: what you do not know is far more relevant than what you do know.
Key points from Black Swan:
• The normal bell-curve distribution predict approximation of results that does not necesserily accounts for Black Swan outliers —shift the distribution significantly. Contributed by pure chance and the tendency for obvious outliers which leads to significant impact due to specific circumstances.
* Gaussian bell curve —few data sets can be effectively analysed using the normal bell distribution in reality.
• Platonifying: The human mind tends to create an illusion of understanding things that are too complex for it to grasp, making chaotic events seem orderly and predictable in retrospect, and overvaluing neat classifications.
• Complex systems are viewed as random due to the lack of available or comprehensible information —predictability is relative to knowledge.
• Predictive models are distorted as a result of generating simplified narratives of the causes of Black Swans and demonstrating their probability after the fact prevents people from taking into account the many complex factors that actually caused the event caused the event, which then distorts predictive models.
• Bad predictions are mostly rooted in extrapolating from the past, which does not always take into account actual, current threats faced.
• Almost evryone of us, especially experts in rapidly changing fields, have tendency to be overconfident in their knowledge —additional information of a topic leads to blind confidence in uninformed determination and unwillingness to revise conclusions and predictions.
Strategy for withstanding Black Swan:
• Be true to ourselves especially on our ignorance/things we do not know
• consider decisions based on available information instead of long-term assumptions
• contemplate on possible risk and adopt methods to minimise risk
I have a lot of comments on it as well but honestly a good read
Probably the best book I've ever read. Taleb is the consummate erudite.
This book wins the award for "worst book I've read in recent memory". The author is incredibly negative, arrogant, and insulting to anyone who doesn't think exactly like him, and those who think he's on to something, but want more verification before they buy onto it completely. I can give you a brief summary of the book: Black Swans are events that are rare but change everything. No current models include these crazy unpredictable events. All scientists, statisticians, and economists are morons and this author is so much smarter than every Nobel Laureate ever. The end. Go ahead and just read Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (whom the author has a MAJOR crush on) and you'll get the same info and enjoy it a lot more.
Interesting ideas but I had a hard time digesting it. A lot was over my head and the author is not at all relatable. Many things rubbed me very wrong.
Stellenweise interessant, aber leider wurden diese Stellen bald von der arroganten Art des Autors überlagert. Dieses ständige "alle außer mir sind dumm" ging mir ziemlich schnell auf den Keks.
challenging
informative
reflective
medium-paced
informative
lighthearted
reflective
medium-paced
Little nuggets of humor help make this, sometimes "over my head" read, easier to continue to the ending..
One thing I now know: "I don't want to be a turkey"!
One thing I now know: "I don't want to be a turkey"!
adventurous
challenging
informative
slow-paced