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3.72 AVERAGE
3.72 AVERAGE
Since I've read some of Taleb's other books reading this too was almost overkill. Still, I like the ideas that he champions and I couldn't resist thinking about them again now that I'm living in France, where things may be less efficient but otherwise seem more time-proven and resilient to unforseen shocks than in the US.
Found meat of the book around page 200, will soon go back with a pencil to underline. After getting through the meat you can safely ignore the rest - I didn't and it was a loss of time. Somehow I haven't googled Mandelbrot yet...
Found meat of the book around page 200, will soon go back with a pencil to underline. After getting through the meat you can safely ignore the rest - I didn't and it was a loss of time. Somehow I haven't googled Mandelbrot yet...
Let me save you 400 pages of reading:
DON’T WEAR TIES.
ECON NOBEL BAD.
FAT TAILS GOOD.*
* for analysis of social matters
DON’T WEAR TIES.
ECON NOBEL BAD.
FAT TAILS GOOD.*
* for analysis of social matters
The original version of this book was published in 2007, so I have "discovered" the black swan thesis very late and am unlikely to add anything new in this review. However, I would not discourage others from picking up this book at this late stage, particularly if they have some superficial idea about black swans and the impact of highly improbable events, as Taleb convincingly substantiates his thesis.
I am one of Taleb's betes noires - an economist - although I would prefer to consider myself an "intelligent, curious, open-minded amateur" as i am certainly no econometrician. Indeed, having studied economics when Samuelson, and his British counterpart Lipsey, provided the standard textbooks and having suffered introductory courses on statistics emphasizing regression, standard deviations and probability distributions, I found Taleb's destruction of the Gaussian bell curve eminently satisfying. While Taleb's style is polemical and aggressive, he does back up his arguments with mathematics as well as philosophy.
The main clarifying factor underlying the black swan thesis is the division of the world into Mediocristan and Extremistan. As Taleb explains, the majority of economists, planners and financiers act as if the world were consistently the former, their tools are developed for and appropriate to Mediocristan and therefore incapable of dealing with the black swans characteristic of Extremistan. The reiterated point of no evidence of an extreme event being distinct from evidence of no extreme event is very relevant here.
This second edition contains a postscript wherein Taleb, after dealing with some of the issues arising from the initial reception of his book, pursues further the notion of fragility in the "fourth quadrant" and the scope for enhancing robustness to negative black swans. As he rather wistfully notes, people much prefer an action programme to recommendations for preventive action against essentially unforeseeable events. Yet the financial crisis of 2008, which vindicated the black swan thesis, surely provides the grounds for continuing to listen to this unpopular prophet.
I am one of Taleb's betes noires - an economist - although I would prefer to consider myself an "intelligent, curious, open-minded amateur" as i am certainly no econometrician. Indeed, having studied economics when Samuelson, and his British counterpart Lipsey, provided the standard textbooks and having suffered introductory courses on statistics emphasizing regression, standard deviations and probability distributions, I found Taleb's destruction of the Gaussian bell curve eminently satisfying. While Taleb's style is polemical and aggressive, he does back up his arguments with mathematics as well as philosophy.
The main clarifying factor underlying the black swan thesis is the division of the world into Mediocristan and Extremistan. As Taleb explains, the majority of economists, planners and financiers act as if the world were consistently the former, their tools are developed for and appropriate to Mediocristan and therefore incapable of dealing with the black swans characteristic of Extremistan. The reiterated point of no evidence of an extreme event being distinct from evidence of no extreme event is very relevant here.
This second edition contains a postscript wherein Taleb, after dealing with some of the issues arising from the initial reception of his book, pursues further the notion of fragility in the "fourth quadrant" and the scope for enhancing robustness to negative black swans. As he rather wistfully notes, people much prefer an action programme to recommendations for preventive action against essentially unforeseeable events. Yet the financial crisis of 2008, which vindicated the black swan thesis, surely provides the grounds for continuing to listen to this unpopular prophet.
challenging
funny
informative
reflective
medium-paced
Interesting ideas, a bit repetitive, and Nassim Taleb, while indubitably a smart and insightful guy, is amazingly full of himself. The whole book could have been a lot more succinct. Individual chapters made some coherently distinct points, which could have been laid out better. Came across as rambling. Marked 3 stars instead of 2 for good fundamentals, even if the presentation was weak.
This was tough book to read. Not the concept is tricky, complex or anything, but because of the way it was written. I leave my comments about the Black Swan idea to the end (which is worth it), but first let me tell why this book bothered me so much.
Is good make it clear that I got my hands on a Portuguese translated paper edition (what can I say, it was a gift). So at first I though my difficulty on keeping a pace with the book could be a bad conversion issue. I say this, because the language used is very formal and full of redundancies (OH the redundancies!). You read the same thing over and over again, sometimes you have the feeling that you're missing something. But it's not the case, as it seems, the author extends the concept like "too little butter on a large piece of bread".
This feeling is only reinforced by the endless citation of other authors and philosophers, with the clear aim of supporting the argument by either complimenting (when the citation is in favor) or criticize those against it.
Which leads me to the last part of my complaints: the criticism. The author is not polite on it, expressing hard feelings against everyone who not only disagrees but also are not aware of his ideas. He poses himself as the "all knowing philosopher" who seems to have brought the truth and salvation upon us all. This really made me want to stop reading even more. I think ideas should be discussed and not battled like this.
But in the end, the concept of the black swan is pretty solid. It's clear how such unexpected leaps affects many dimensions of our world and society. The confirmatory bias (and historical bias) is also a concept that truly hides it from our view and keep us from embracing the idea that somethings have no generative rule.
As you can see, a very well built point. I bought it. But not only it's spread too long over what was needed. After so many attacks on the tools used by statistics the author give us no tools on how to handle with the Black Swan (only the gray ones, and its not even his tool). Which makes the end quick and unsavory.
Is good make it clear that I got my hands on a Portuguese translated paper edition (what can I say, it was a gift). So at first I though my difficulty on keeping a pace with the book could be a bad conversion issue. I say this, because the language used is very formal and full of redundancies (OH the redundancies!). You read the same thing over and over again, sometimes you have the feeling that you're missing something. But it's not the case, as it seems, the author extends the concept like "too little butter on a large piece of bread".
This feeling is only reinforced by the endless citation of other authors and philosophers, with the clear aim of supporting the argument by either complimenting (when the citation is in favor) or criticize those against it.
Which leads me to the last part of my complaints: the criticism. The author is not polite on it, expressing hard feelings against everyone who not only disagrees but also are not aware of his ideas. He poses himself as the "all knowing philosopher" who seems to have brought the truth and salvation upon us all. This really made me want to stop reading even more. I think ideas should be discussed and not battled like this.
But in the end, the concept of the black swan is pretty solid. It's clear how such unexpected leaps affects many dimensions of our world and society. The confirmatory bias (and historical bias) is also a concept that truly hides it from our view and keep us from embracing the idea that somethings have no generative rule.
As you can see, a very well built point. I bought it. But not only it's spread too long over what was needed. After so many attacks on the tools used by statistics the author give us no tools on how to handle with the Black Swan (only the gray ones, and its not even his tool). Which makes the end quick and unsavory.
slow-paced
A niche and potentially interesting topic explained by a quirky, wealthy, and hard-to-like author. I can appreciate difficult people with enlightened views but in this case the value of the trivia can’t overcome the arrogant tone to be worth my leisure time.
Abandoned on page 25 of 300. The subject might be interesting but the author is obnoxious. The last chapter I read was about an author who unexpectedly wrote a bestseller proving to be a black swan. Unfortunately the tale was invented for no real reason as there are plenty of people like this. That was the last straw and I abandoned the book.