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116 reviews for:
The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us about America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny
William Strauss, Neil Howe
3.57 AVERAGE
116 reviews for:
The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us about America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny
William Strauss, Neil Howe
3.57 AVERAGE
challenging
reflective
slow-paced
challenging
informative
reflective
slow-paced
It amazes me that this book was written in 1996. There's a 27 year gap between the knowledge of history this book is aware of and where we are as a society today...and it's friggin <i>eerie</i> how utterly accurate some of this book's predictions are.
It's a fascinating take on just how cyclical our history is. You know that phrase "if we don't learn from the past, we're doomed to repeat it?" Yeah. This book basically makes the claim that even if we DO learn from the past, history is going to end up repeating itself in one way or another anyway, no matter what. And it comes with recipts.
I think the only real drawback to this book is it's age. A LOT has happened in the last 27 or so years. Hell, a LOT has happened in the last 3 years alone. It makes me wonder what the authors would say--and if they'd change their minds about what they wrote here now seeing what's actually come to pass.
I'm leaving my chapter notes here because, honestly? it's too much to go into everything.
CHAPTER 1: <b>"Wherever we look, from L.A. to D.C, from Oklahoma City to Sun City, we see paths to a foreboding future. We yearn for civic character but satisfy ourselves with symbolic gestures and celebrity circuses. We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in ourselves. Small wonder that each new election brings a new jolt, its aftermath a new disappointment."</b>
Okay. This was written in 1996. But fuck if this isn't <i>exactly</i> what is going on in 2023. What HAS been going on for ages. Alright, sirs, you've got my attention.
<b>"The risk of catastrophe will be very high (in the upcoming 4th turning). The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be on of maximum risk and effort--in other words, <i>total war</i>."</b>
Holy bejeezus.
Look at the last 3 years alone.
Insurrection? Hello J6.
Civil Violence? 2020's "summer of love" that saw rioting, burning and looting of multiple US cities.
Cracking up Geographically? How many people have stated that this state or that one needs to or wants to secede? (Lookin' at you Texas).
Authoritarian rule? Uh. Depending on what side you're on... both have been blamed for trying to make the country more authoritarian.
<b>Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse--or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter into a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition.</b>
It's really not looking so triumphant right now, is it, folks?
CHAPTER 2:<b>"Over a period of time (roughly 100 years) a world power emerges from a global war only to experience a gradual decay in its position of preponderance, . . . [g]lobal order decays at a parallel rate until a new global war occurs and facilitates the emergence of a new world power." - William Thompson</b>
After WWII, it was America that emerged on top. It's been 78 years since WWII ended. We're at the cusp of a new emerging. And we're seeing American society decay and die all around us every day.
Seems like we're right on schedule.
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/wx3Gx5U.jpg"/>
<b>Given time, any postwar era is destined to become prewar.</b>
Despite the old adage, it seems history always repeats itself, regardless of whether or not we learn from it.
<b>The saecular rhythm foretells another American Crisis in the first quarter of the twenty-first century, . . . The next Crisis era will mostly likely extend roughly from the middle Oh-Ohs to the middle 2020s. Its climax is not likely to occur before 2005 or later than 2025...</b>
This is eerie, given what's going on now in 2023. Especially because for a lot of people, it seems like the world is just sort of waiting for the other shoe to drop.
CHAPTER 3: This chapter talks about a "crystalizing moment" that can effect each generation at the same time, but in different ways.
<b>The stress of the Great Event leaves a different emotional imprint according to the social role each is called on to play--differences reinforced by the social interaction within each group. Children mirror each other's dread, youths each other's valor, midlifers each other's competence, and seniors each other's wisdom. . . . When this hero generation (the youths) reaches midlife, its leaders show greater hubris than their predecessors. As elders they issue more demands for public reward. Meanwhile, the generation following them--the trembling children of the Great Event--bring a more deferential persona into later life-cycle phases, altering their social roles accordingly.</b>
Is this why people consider Millenials entitled and arrogant and irritating as fuck? (I do, and I AM one... lol).
I also can't help but think about 9/11 as a crystalizing moment... the aftermath isn't something I'd even remotely call "successful", but the event itself renders every single American that was alive and old enough to remember it nostalgic and mournful.
<b>* a <i>Prophet</i> generation grows up as increasingly indulged post-Crisis children, comes of age as the narcissistic young crusaders of an Awakening, cultivates principle as moralistic midlifers, and emerges as wise elders guiding the next Crisis. (Boomers)
* A <i>Nomad</i> generation grows up as underprotected children during an Awakening, comes of age as the alienated young adults of a post-Awakening world, mellows into pragmatic midlifer leaders during a Crisis, and ages into tough post-Crisis elders. (Gen X)
* A <i>Hero</i> generation grows up as increasingly protected post-Awakening children, comes of age as the heroic young teamworkers of a Crisis, demonstrates hubris as energetic midlifers, and emerges as powerful elders attacked by the next Awakening. (Millenials)
* An <i>Artist</i> generation grows up as overprotected children during a Crisis, comes of age as the sensitive young adults of a post-Crisis world, breaks free as indecisive midlife leaders during an Awakening, and ages into empathic post-Awakening elders. (Gen Z)</b>
CHAPTER 4:
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/eB5za1t.jpg"/>
Honestly just read this whole chapter. It's a FACINATING look at American culture as we've sailed through the past 3 turnings.
<b>. . . America was ready for a major new dose of big-government liberalism in 1988. . . . Schlesinger is right about the fundamental rhythm of American politics. Authoritarian government isn't dead; it's just hibernating, poised to return in the Fourth Turning, rested and refreshed.</b>
And look where we're at today. I've always said that there's a pendulum that swings back and forth between liberal and conservative. Inevitably, one side pushes things too far, goes too radical, and there's pushback that drags that to the opposite end... We as a people are reactionary. The more one side or the other goes to an extreme, the more extreme the response against it will be.
<b>Rates of crime and worries about social disorder rise during Awakenings, reach a cyclical peak during Unravelings, and then fall sharply during Crises.</b>
If we're going into the Fourth Turning, and we're at a Crisis point here in 2023... I would say this is the first part of this theory that I don't agree with. Civil unrest is at an ALL TIME HIGH. We've got riots and protests going on everywhere all the time. Our relationships with one another are suffering more than they have in decades. We are divided by race, gender, sexuality, age, and politics (among other things, probably, too). Either we have not yet entered this Crisis period and we are overdue... or these authors have some explaining to do about all the BS that's gone down in the last 3 years or so.
<b>Does the rhythm of the saeculum make a major war unavoidable? No one knows. An Awakening does not require a war. Nor, perhaps, does a Crisis--even though every Fourth Turning since the fifteenth century has culminated in total war. History teaches only that whatever wars do happen always reflect the mood of the current turning. Wars in a Fourth Turning find the broadest possible definition and are fought to unambiguous outcomes.</b>
This seems like a make-it-or-break-it sort of mentality. So will it be WWIII against Russia and China or will it be an internal civil war between the left and the right? I'm DYING to know what these guys think about what's going on in our current time.
CHAPTER 5: <b>We may prefer to see ourselves as masters of nature, controllers of all change and progress, exempt from the seasons of history. Yet the more we balk at seasonality and the more we try to eradicate it, the more menacing we render our view of the time--and of the future. Most of today's adult Americans grew up in a society whose citizens dreamed of perpetually improving outcomes: better jobs, fatter wallets, stronger government, fine culture, nicer families, smarter kids, all the usual fruits of progress. Today, deep into a Third Turning, these goals often feel like they are slipping away. Many of us wish we could rewind time, but we know we can't--and we fear for our children and grandchildren.</b>
CHAPTER 6:
<b>* As exhausted <i>Nomads</i> replace Prophets in <i>elderhood</i>, they slow the pace of social change, shunning the old crusades in favor of simplicity and survivalism.</b> If this isn't the most Gen X thing I've ever heard...
<b>* As powerful <i>Heroes</i> replace Nomads in <i>midlife</i>, they establish an upbeat, constructive ethic of social discipline.</b> Millenials seem to be the driving force behind a lot of the social change going on today. So this rings true in many ways.
<b>* As conformist <i>Artists</i> replace Heroes in <i>young adulthood</i>, they become sensitive helpmates, lending their expertise and cooperation to an era of growing social calm.</b> This is meant to be GenZ...But I don't think we've seent he "social calm" bit yet to know whether or not this is really accurate. I would say that many older people tend to think GenZ is sensitive though--maybe TOO sensitive.
<b>* As <i>Prophets</i> replace Artists in <i>childhood</i>, they are nurtured with increasing indulgence by optimistic adults in a secure environment.</b> I'll straight up believe this shit when I see it. Cause right now, all I can see is the whole world going to hell in a fiery handbasket. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
CHAPTER 8: <b>By the early 1990s, America's niche group conflict came to be known as the Culture Wars: . . . "profound division over what kind of country we are, what kind of people we are, and what we mean by 'The American Way of Life.'</b>
<b>As this "politics of meaning" spread, Americans in every niche came to one common conclusion: The institutional order was not working and was not worth defending.</b>
In other words, we no longer have any trust or faith in our government. Accurate.
CHAPTER 9: These past few chapters this book is showing it's age. It's hard to believe that 1996 was nearly 30 years ago.
There's a lot of focus on Boomers and Gen X here (which is fine), because at the time they were the active adults in society. But 30 years later, Millennials play a much larger role. And GenZ is priming for it's own outing into society.
I think this section also sort of loses me a bit on the predictions too. Where there's a lot I think they got right--or at least hinted at being right, I think there's a lot here that seems... way to freakin' hopeful.
Obviously these guys didn't know what was coming. They had no idea about 9/11, or the race wars that are still raging today, the riots, the political upheaval and unrest, the pandemic...
I just can't help but wonder if their tunes will have changed about how people in the Fourth Turning will behave. Because if it's true and we're IN it now... I don't really see where the hopeful outcome is. Maybe because we're not <i>there</i> yet. Maybe because we haven't 'rounded the bend' so to speak and can't yet see the light at the end of the tunnel...
I sound so fucking fatalistic, but honestly? I don't see things getting better before they get worse.
<b>* A Crisis era beings with a <i>catalyst</i>--a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood.
* Once catalyzed, a society achieves a <i>regeneracy</i>--a new counterentropy that reunifies and re-energizes civic life.</b> See I would have said this was 9/11 and the immediate after effects, the surge of patriotism and communal love... but now in 2023... yeah no.
<b>* The regenerated society propels toward a <i>climax</i>--a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and a birth of the new.
* the climax culminates in a <i>resolution</i>--a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates the winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order.</b> See this is what I haven't seen yet by a long shot. And what leads me to believe we're going to end up in a civil war. We just don't know what it's going to look like yet.
CHAPTER 10: This book is predicting that around 2005 we entered the Fourth Turning. Which leads me to wonder if they're going to pin the "climax" on the pandemic. Because if so... I think they've got it all wrong. I don't think we've SEEN the climax yet.
Now I WILL admit they predicted possible scenarios that were EERIE. Especially the one about the terrorists blowing up an aircraft. Holy fuck.
<b>A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and announces it possesses portable nuclear weapons. The United States and its allies launch a preemptive strike. The Terrorists threaten to retaliate against an American city.</b> Dude really?
Also, look at this:
<b>An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. the president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. . . . Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.</b> THAT HAS ACTUALLY HAPPENED IN THE LAST FEW YEARS.
AND THIS:
<B>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announce the spread of a new communicable virus. The disease reaches densely populated areas, killing some. Congress enacts mandatory quarantine measures. The president orders the National Guard to throw prophylactic cordons around unsafe neighborhoods. Mayors resist. Urban gangs battle suburban militias. Calls mount for the president to declare martial law.</b>
Most of that HAS happened since 2020. In some capacity or other!
They also suppose that gas and oil prices will soar and that discussions about the draft will arise. All things that have come up in recent months/years.
The authors supposed that any one of these things may happen... and yet we've seen them ALL in some way shape and form. Hilariously, they write this immediately after making that list:
<b>It's highly unlikely that any one of these scenarios will actually happen.</b>
Y'ALL.
CHAPTER 11: Yeah I don't really think Americans prepared AT ALL or even could conceive that anything like 2020-2023 could ever happen.
CHAPER 12: <b>The next Fourth Turning could mark the end of man. It could be an omnicidal Armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing. If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when it's dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly.</b>
Well, that's a bit dire.
<b>The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the world <i>America</i> has come to signify.</b>
Unfortunately, I think this is probably the more likely of all the options we're presented. And the entire world is seeing it happen, that's the saddest bit.
It's a fascinating take on just how cyclical our history is. You know that phrase "if we don't learn from the past, we're doomed to repeat it?" Yeah. This book basically makes the claim that even if we DO learn from the past, history is going to end up repeating itself in one way or another anyway, no matter what. And it comes with recipts.
I think the only real drawback to this book is it's age. A LOT has happened in the last 27 or so years. Hell, a LOT has happened in the last 3 years alone. It makes me wonder what the authors would say--and if they'd change their minds about what they wrote here now seeing what's actually come to pass.
I'm leaving my chapter notes here because, honestly? it's too much to go into everything.
Okay. This was written in 1996. But fuck if this isn't <i>exactly</i> what is going on in 2023. What HAS been going on for ages. Alright, sirs, you've got my attention.
<b>"The risk of catastrophe will be very high (in the upcoming 4th turning). The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be on of maximum risk and effort--in other words, <i>total war</i>."</b>
Holy bejeezus.
Look at the last 3 years alone.
Insurrection? Hello J6.
Civil Violence? 2020's "summer of love" that saw rioting, burning and looting of multiple US cities.
Cracking up Geographically? How many people have stated that this state or that one needs to or wants to secede? (Lookin' at you Texas).
Authoritarian rule? Uh. Depending on what side you're on... both have been blamed for trying to make the country more authoritarian.
<b>Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse--or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter into a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition.</b>
It's really not looking so triumphant right now, is it, folks?
CHAPTER 2:<b>"Over a period of time (roughly 100 years) a world power emerges from a global war only to experience a gradual decay in its position of preponderance, . . . [g]lobal order decays at a parallel rate until a new global war occurs and facilitates the emergence of a new world power." - William Thompson</b>
After WWII, it was America that emerged on top. It's been 78 years since WWII ended. We're at the cusp of a new emerging. And we're seeing American society decay and die all around us every day.
Seems like we're right on schedule.
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/wx3Gx5U.jpg"/>
<b>Given time, any postwar era is destined to become prewar.</b>
Despite the old adage, it seems history always repeats itself, regardless of whether or not we learn from it.
<b>The saecular rhythm foretells another American Crisis in the first quarter of the twenty-first century, . . . The next Crisis era will mostly likely extend roughly from the middle Oh-Ohs to the middle 2020s. Its climax is not likely to occur before 2005 or later than 2025...</b>
This is eerie, given what's going on now in 2023. Especially because for a lot of people, it seems like the world is just sort of waiting for the other shoe to drop.
CHAPTER 3: This chapter talks about a "crystalizing moment" that can effect each generation at the same time, but in different ways.
<b>The stress of the Great Event leaves a different emotional imprint according to the social role each is called on to play--differences reinforced by the social interaction within each group. Children mirror each other's dread, youths each other's valor, midlifers each other's competence, and seniors each other's wisdom. . . . When this hero generation (the youths) reaches midlife, its leaders show greater hubris than their predecessors. As elders they issue more demands for public reward. Meanwhile, the generation following them--the trembling children of the Great Event--bring a more deferential persona into later life-cycle phases, altering their social roles accordingly.</b>
Is this why people consider Millenials entitled and arrogant and irritating as fuck? (I do, and I AM one... lol).
I also can't help but think about 9/11 as a crystalizing moment... the aftermath isn't something I'd even remotely call "successful", but the event itself renders every single American that was alive and old enough to remember it nostalgic and mournful.
<b>* a <i>Prophet</i> generation grows up as increasingly indulged post-Crisis children, comes of age as the narcissistic young crusaders of an Awakening, cultivates principle as moralistic midlifers, and emerges as wise elders guiding the next Crisis. (Boomers)
* A <i>Nomad</i> generation grows up as underprotected children during an Awakening, comes of age as the alienated young adults of a post-Awakening world, mellows into pragmatic midlifer leaders during a Crisis, and ages into tough post-Crisis elders. (Gen X)
* A <i>Hero</i> generation grows up as increasingly protected post-Awakening children, comes of age as the heroic young teamworkers of a Crisis, demonstrates hubris as energetic midlifers, and emerges as powerful elders attacked by the next Awakening. (Millenials)
* An <i>Artist</i> generation grows up as overprotected children during a Crisis, comes of age as the sensitive young adults of a post-Crisis world, breaks free as indecisive midlife leaders during an Awakening, and ages into empathic post-Awakening elders. (Gen Z)</b>
CHAPTER 4:
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/eB5za1t.jpg"/>
Honestly just read this whole chapter. It's a FACINATING look at American culture as we've sailed through the past 3 turnings.
<b>. . . America was ready for a major new dose of big-government liberalism in 1988. . . . Schlesinger is right about the fundamental rhythm of American politics. Authoritarian government isn't dead; it's just hibernating, poised to return in the Fourth Turning, rested and refreshed.</b>
And look where we're at today. I've always said that there's a pendulum that swings back and forth between liberal and conservative. Inevitably, one side pushes things too far, goes too radical, and there's pushback that drags that to the opposite end... We as a people are reactionary. The more one side or the other goes to an extreme, the more extreme the response against it will be.
<b>Rates of crime and worries about social disorder rise during Awakenings, reach a cyclical peak during Unravelings, and then fall sharply during Crises.</b>
If we're going into the Fourth Turning, and we're at a Crisis point here in 2023... I would say this is the first part of this theory that I don't agree with. Civil unrest is at an ALL TIME HIGH. We've got riots and protests going on everywhere all the time. Our relationships with one another are suffering more than they have in decades. We are divided by race, gender, sexuality, age, and politics (among other things, probably, too). Either we have not yet entered this Crisis period and we are overdue... or these authors have some explaining to do about all the BS that's gone down in the last 3 years or so.
<b>Does the rhythm of the saeculum make a major war unavoidable? No one knows. An Awakening does not require a war. Nor, perhaps, does a Crisis--even though every Fourth Turning since the fifteenth century has culminated in total war. History teaches only that whatever wars do happen always reflect the mood of the current turning. Wars in a Fourth Turning find the broadest possible definition and are fought to unambiguous outcomes.</b>
This seems like a make-it-or-break-it sort of mentality. So will it be WWIII against Russia and China or will it be an internal civil war between the left and the right? I'm DYING to know what these guys think about what's going on in our current time.
CHAPTER 5: <b>We may prefer to see ourselves as masters of nature, controllers of all change and progress, exempt from the seasons of history. Yet the more we balk at seasonality and the more we try to eradicate it, the more menacing we render our view of the time--and of the future. Most of today's adult Americans grew up in a society whose citizens dreamed of perpetually improving outcomes: better jobs, fatter wallets, stronger government, fine culture, nicer families, smarter kids, all the usual fruits of progress. Today, deep into a Third Turning, these goals often feel like they are slipping away. Many of us wish we could rewind time, but we know we can't--and we fear for our children and grandchildren.</b>
CHAPTER 6:
<b>* As exhausted <i>Nomads</i> replace Prophets in <i>elderhood</i>, they slow the pace of social change, shunning the old crusades in favor of simplicity and survivalism.</b> If this isn't the most Gen X thing I've ever heard...
<b>* As powerful <i>Heroes</i> replace Nomads in <i>midlife</i>, they establish an upbeat, constructive ethic of social discipline.</b> Millenials seem to be the driving force behind a lot of the social change going on today. So this rings true in many ways.
<b>* As conformist <i>Artists</i> replace Heroes in <i>young adulthood</i>, they become sensitive helpmates, lending their expertise and cooperation to an era of growing social calm.</b> This is meant to be GenZ...But I don't think we've seent he "social calm" bit yet to know whether or not this is really accurate. I would say that many older people tend to think GenZ is sensitive though--maybe TOO sensitive.
<b>* As <i>Prophets</i> replace Artists in <i>childhood</i>, they are nurtured with increasing indulgence by optimistic adults in a secure environment.</b> I'll straight up believe this shit when I see it. Cause right now, all I can see is the whole world going to hell in a fiery handbasket. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
CHAPTER 8: <b>By the early 1990s, America's niche group conflict came to be known as the Culture Wars: . . . "profound division over what kind of country we are, what kind of people we are, and what we mean by 'The American Way of Life.'</b>
<b>As this "politics of meaning" spread, Americans in every niche came to one common conclusion: The institutional order was not working and was not worth defending.</b>
In other words, we no longer have any trust or faith in our government. Accurate.
CHAPTER 9: These past few chapters this book is showing it's age. It's hard to believe that 1996 was nearly 30 years ago.
There's a lot of focus on Boomers and Gen X here (which is fine), because at the time they were the active adults in society. But 30 years later, Millennials play a much larger role. And GenZ is priming for it's own outing into society.
I think this section also sort of loses me a bit on the predictions too. Where there's a lot I think they got right--or at least hinted at being right, I think there's a lot here that seems... way to freakin' hopeful.
Obviously these guys didn't know what was coming. They had no idea about 9/11, or the race wars that are still raging today, the riots, the political upheaval and unrest, the pandemic...
I just can't help but wonder if their tunes will have changed about how people in the Fourth Turning will behave. Because if it's true and we're IN it now... I don't really see where the hopeful outcome is. Maybe because we're not <i>there</i> yet. Maybe because we haven't 'rounded the bend' so to speak and can't yet see the light at the end of the tunnel...
I sound so fucking fatalistic, but honestly? I don't see things getting better before they get worse.
<b>* A Crisis era beings with a <i>catalyst</i>--a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood.
* Once catalyzed, a society achieves a <i>regeneracy</i>--a new counterentropy that reunifies and re-energizes civic life.</b> See I would have said this was 9/11 and the immediate after effects, the surge of patriotism and communal love... but now in 2023... yeah no.
<b>* The regenerated society propels toward a <i>climax</i>--a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and a birth of the new.
* the climax culminates in a <i>resolution</i>--a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates the winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order.</b> See this is what I haven't seen yet by a long shot. And what leads me to believe we're going to end up in a civil war. We just don't know what it's going to look like yet.
CHAPTER 10: This book is predicting that around 2005 we entered the Fourth Turning. Which leads me to wonder if they're going to pin the "climax" on the pandemic. Because if so... I think they've got it all wrong. I don't think we've SEEN the climax yet.
Now I WILL admit they predicted possible scenarios that were EERIE. Especially the one about the terrorists blowing up an aircraft. Holy fuck.
<b>A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and announces it possesses portable nuclear weapons. The United States and its allies launch a preemptive strike. The Terrorists threaten to retaliate against an American city.</b> Dude really?
Also, look at this:
<b>An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. the president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. . . . Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.</b> THAT HAS ACTUALLY HAPPENED IN THE LAST FEW YEARS.
AND THIS:
<B>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announce the spread of a new communicable virus. The disease reaches densely populated areas, killing some. Congress enacts mandatory quarantine measures. The president orders the National Guard to throw prophylactic cordons around unsafe neighborhoods. Mayors resist. Urban gangs battle suburban militias. Calls mount for the president to declare martial law.</b>
Most of that HAS happened since 2020. In some capacity or other!
They also suppose that gas and oil prices will soar and that discussions about the draft will arise. All things that have come up in recent months/years.
The authors supposed that any one of these things may happen... and yet we've seen them ALL in some way shape and form. Hilariously, they write this immediately after making that list:
<b>It's highly unlikely that any one of these scenarios will actually happen.</b>
Y'ALL.
CHAPTER 11: Yeah I don't really think Americans prepared AT ALL or even could conceive that anything like 2020-2023 could ever happen.
CHAPER 12: <b>The next Fourth Turning could mark the end of man. It could be an omnicidal Armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing. If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when it's dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly.</b>
Well, that's a bit dire.
<b>The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the world <i>America</i> has come to signify.</b>
Unfortunately, I think this is probably the more likely of all the options we're presented. And the entire world is seeing it happen, that's the saddest bit.
challenging
dark
hopeful
informative
reflective
slow-paced
I recommend this book if you’re looking for a historical perspective on what’s currently happening in our society.
challenging
dark
informative
reflective
slow-paced
challenging
hopeful
informative
slow-paced
Interesting...A really good friend who I respect a lot recommended this book to me, so I wanted to find it more compelling than I actually did. The concept of historical patterns was enlightening and the authors were incredibly prescient when they published the book two decades ago. The discussion of generational archetypes was useful. I sort of lost momentum with this book, though. The tone started to bother me about halfway through, and the forecasts and characterizations felt too dated.
informative
reflective
medium-paced
Largely Audiobookable, would not read again although may listen. Apart from a few concepts and flowery descriptions there's no need to read it in the first place. Mildly interesting to the average Jungian enthusiast. Cyclical history 😬 Ibn Khaldun dupe 🤥 yet no credit? What else will white people steal next? It's humour Karen, move along.
A rather chilling book that has some grave insights despite being a little too much like astrology or tarot or other New Age woo hoo. Still, it sent me off looking for their other books, which have also proved at least to be entertaining and informative (the history is accurate, even if the predictions may not be).
The author describes the cyclic nature of history, particularly as it relates to american history. He posits (and demonstrates) that every 80 years, there is a crisis, and the American government has a sudden shift and departure from what it has been before.
I didn't finish it, in part because I felt it was very repetitive. It was interesting, seems based on a sound understanding of time cycles in history being based on an 80 year lifespan (roughly) rather than arbitrary century markings. I'll have to give it another shot when I'm feeling more self-disciplined.
I didn't finish it, in part because I felt it was very repetitive. It was interesting, seems based on a sound understanding of time cycles in history being based on an 80 year lifespan (roughly) rather than arbitrary century markings. I'll have to give it another shot when I'm feeling more self-disciplined.
Interesting way to look at history. I'm not sure of its predictive power -- we're about ten years overdue for a major crisis -- but the generational view of time is certainly compelling in the authors' telling.