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3.68 AVERAGE
3.68 AVERAGE
Książka napisana dość technicznym żargonem, autor zna się na tym, co pisze.
Minęło już tyle czasu, że można sprawdzić pewne przewidywania Kurzweila - sprawdziły się w 50%.
Minęło już tyle czasu, że można sprawdzić pewne przewidywania Kurzweila - sprawdziły się w 50%.
adventurous
hopeful
informative
inspiring
lighthearted
reflective
relaxing
medium-paced
An incredibly well-reasoned examination of the nearly unlimited potential of this century and what lies beyond.
If you've been paying any attention to the internet or science fiction, you have probably run into the concept of the singularity in one way or another. There are several versions of this idea, from the most limited (once we have developed a human level machine intelligence, it will likely be a short time until we have super-human machine intelligences) to the most expansive (all technological changes are accelerating, and this acceleration is itself accelerating). Mr Kurzweil, perhaps the leading prophet of the singularity (the choice of title is not arbitrary) takes this view to the extreme. Technology is exploding and it will be WONDERFUL. He posits that if you live to 2029 you will get to live forever, that around that time a human level AI will emerge, and that within a few centuries Man (and its benign, respectful, ultra-wise descendants) will stretch to occupy all of the universe within reach (Kurzweil suggests that even the speed of light will yield to our powerful virtue!)
When I began this book, I thought I would be rating it a 2. Most of the ideas are tired for me. While I don't understand enough science to say so definitively his take on the progress of nano-science seems particularly far-fetched and unmoored to the realities of research. Where he does seem to be on track is with his predictions about AI though. While other branches of science he was optimistic about - nano tech and bio tech in particular - have sputtered along, AI tech has continued to grow by leaps an bounds. Is it ridiculous to think that we might have GAI by the time I am 40? What would the consequences be if everything went OK? This book is most successful when it sticks to arguing that AI tech has been growing more rapidly than generally acknowledged, and pointing out possible upside consequences of this trend.
Kurzweil is here to spread the good news. In the most effective sections of the book, he imagines a dialogue between a contemporary human, humans at different points of his Utopian future, and various historical characters (Freud, Darwin, and Ned Ludd most notably). In these sections I feel he successfully makes the case that a singularity COULD be a very good thing for almost everyone. While Ludd levels valid objections, each of these is at least potentially addressed. Would the machines wipe us out? Not if they love and respect us. Would life lose meaning without death? Not if approached with the correct attitude. Would we still be human after these radical changes? We would be human if we wanted to be. Would people live valuable lives in a virtual reality? Yes, and especially if we were allowed to interact with each other.
This book has 3 major failings however. First, as noted above, the book seems much more accurate in its science when talking about AI tech than when talking about nano or bio tech. This is a serious drawback, because Kurzweil believes these innovations to be important, if not critical, complements to GAI in his vision. Second, while he makes a long, anecdotal case that technological change is accelerating, he leaves out important counterarguments. I am thinking in particular here about a branch of economic research indicating that technological innovations may be getting increasingly hard to find (the 'fishing out' hypothesis). The idea that future ideas might be harder to discover -- intuitively very plausible! -- is not represented beyond a strawman. Finally, and most importantly, Kurzweil in his zeal rejects almost out of hand the possibility of a catastrophe from the singularity. While he does note that some techs are dangerous (and he discusses - novel to me - the idea of an immune system of nano-bots to fight anyone trying to maliciously start a grey-goo scenario) he does not see this possibility for AI. However it is clear to me that the creation of a super-intelligence will be one of the most dangerous moments in human history. If a super powerful being decides it wants to rule us it will. Therefore it is incredibly important that we think through the consequences of bringing such a being into existence.
Such is the thesis of the next book I review - a great complement to this one - Superintelligence by Bostrom.
When I began this book, I thought I would be rating it a 2. Most of the ideas are tired for me. While I don't understand enough science to say so definitively his take on the progress of nano-science seems particularly far-fetched and unmoored to the realities of research. Where he does seem to be on track is with his predictions about AI though. While other branches of science he was optimistic about - nano tech and bio tech in particular - have sputtered along, AI tech has continued to grow by leaps an bounds. Is it ridiculous to think that we might have GAI by the time I am 40? What would the consequences be if everything went OK? This book is most successful when it sticks to arguing that AI tech has been growing more rapidly than generally acknowledged, and pointing out possible upside consequences of this trend.
Kurzweil is here to spread the good news. In the most effective sections of the book, he imagines a dialogue between a contemporary human, humans at different points of his Utopian future, and various historical characters (Freud, Darwin, and Ned Ludd most notably). In these sections I feel he successfully makes the case that a singularity COULD be a very good thing for almost everyone. While Ludd levels valid objections, each of these is at least potentially addressed. Would the machines wipe us out? Not if they love and respect us. Would life lose meaning without death? Not if approached with the correct attitude. Would we still be human after these radical changes? We would be human if we wanted to be. Would people live valuable lives in a virtual reality? Yes, and especially if we were allowed to interact with each other.
This book has 3 major failings however. First, as noted above, the book seems much more accurate in its science when talking about AI tech than when talking about nano or bio tech. This is a serious drawback, because Kurzweil believes these innovations to be important, if not critical, complements to GAI in his vision. Second, while he makes a long, anecdotal case that technological change is accelerating, he leaves out important counterarguments. I am thinking in particular here about a branch of economic research indicating that technological innovations may be getting increasingly hard to find (the 'fishing out' hypothesis). The idea that future ideas might be harder to discover -- intuitively very plausible! -- is not represented beyond a strawman. Finally, and most importantly, Kurzweil in his zeal rejects almost out of hand the possibility of a catastrophe from the singularity. While he does note that some techs are dangerous (and he discusses - novel to me - the idea of an immune system of nano-bots to fight anyone trying to maliciously start a grey-goo scenario) he does not see this possibility for AI. However it is clear to me that the creation of a super-intelligence will be one of the most dangerous moments in human history. If a super powerful being decides it wants to rule us it will. Therefore it is incredibly important that we think through the consequences of bringing such a being into existence.
Such is the thesis of the next book I review - a great complement to this one - Superintelligence by Bostrom.
Excellent. Ray has one of the most optimistic outlooks on the future of anybody I know. I hope he's write.
I AM FREE OF THIS BOOK FINALLY
FREE TO THROW IT IN THE DUMPSTER
FREE TO THROW IT IN THE DUMPSTER
adventurous
challenging
hopeful
informative
inspiring
reflective
slow-paced
The best book I've ever read.
I like how optimistic (perhaps overly optimistic) the author is.
It is a great contract to many other optimists, who are not optimistic enough about the future.
It is a great contract to many other optimists, who are not optimistic enough about the future.
Very interesting stuff. When it comes to the future, just as present day life, it is all matter of perception. Will things be the way Ray describes? He definitely has a piece to the puzzle. His perception of things to come is both thought provoking, and worthwhile.
First of all, this book is old. 2005. That’s a problem for a book discussing the future into which we’re speeding. But I have always been fascinated by ideas about the future and Joe Scott, of one of my new favorite YouTube channels this year, recommended it.
It’s a big, complex book. I didn’t understand some of it. But I was determined. And it was very interesting and gave me hope. I have been a little skeptical about some predictions but this book made me understand how they are possible, even probable.
I’m consuming related, more recent content too. The timeline presented in this book is not perfectly accurate but that doesn’t mean the ideas are impossible.
If you’re interested but don’t have time to read a heavy book, he has a website and there are plenty of newer resources available online. But if you want to get a deep discussion about the Singularity I recommend this book.
It’s a big, complex book. I didn’t understand some of it. But I was determined. And it was very interesting and gave me hope. I have been a little skeptical about some predictions but this book made me understand how they are possible, even probable.
I’m consuming related, more recent content too. The timeline presented in this book is not perfectly accurate but that doesn’t mean the ideas are impossible.
If you’re interested but don’t have time to read a heavy book, he has a website and there are plenty of newer resources available online. But if you want to get a deep discussion about the Singularity I recommend this book.