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3.84 AVERAGE
3.84 AVERAGE
ma püüdsin juba ammu seda raamatut lugeda, sest mu matemaatikaharidusega ema väga soovitas. kahjuks jäin toona toppama esimeses peatükis, kus lubati "õppetundi meile kõigile, ka neile, kes pesapallil ja pingpongil vahet ei tee" (ma väga ei tee), aga millest ma ei saanud mitte midagi aru, kuna mulle räägiti lehekülgede kaupa sellest, mitu kodujooksu mingi spordimees lõi. on täiesti võimalik, et selle veidra spordiala terminoloogia ongi eesti keeles nii imelik, aga kogu juhuslikkuse-alane õppetund läks mul igatahes kaarega üle pea kogu selles segaduses.
võtsin õnnetu poolelijäänu nüüd väljakutse raames uuesti ette (no sattus nii, et endiselt eesti keeles) ja selgub, et kuni spordist eemale hoitakse, on täitsa loetav raamat. eelkõige illustreerib selle lugemise kogemus muidugi teose enda põhilist sõnumit, mis on see, et inimese aju ei tule tõenäosusülesannete lahendamisega eriti hästi toime. kõigi näidetega kaasamõtlemine pani vähemalt minu oma (aju siis) küll päris korralikult huugama.
aga siin seletati kenasti lahti see kuulus kahe kitse ja luksusautoga ülesanne (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem), juba selle nimel tasub lugeda, et selle vastust mõistma hakata.
mõned eestikeelses versioonis kasutatud terminid tekitasid minus küll kõhklust, aga on minugi kooliskäimisest nii palju aega möödas, et... äkki siis tõesti öeldaksegi nii. et võtan urnist kuule (oo, neid urne ja kuule küll mäletan tõenäosusteooria ja matemaatilise statistika loengutest) ja siis "asendan" neid? mitte ei pane lihtsalt tagasi? mul on tunne, et nii kulub eestlasel palju rohkem kuule kui Bernoullil endal kulus. see on küll pisiasi, sest ega need kuulid midagi ei maksa ju, eriti kuna nad on üleni puhas mõtteeksperiment. ainult et mulle tundub, et mõttelaisalt tõlgitud :(
ja mida paganat tähendab "rea auku ostmine" (raamatus samamoodi jutumärkides ja konteksti järgi otsustades peaks kuidagi pokkeriga seotud olema)?
võtsin õnnetu poolelijäänu nüüd väljakutse raames uuesti ette (no sattus nii, et endiselt eesti keeles) ja selgub, et kuni spordist eemale hoitakse, on täitsa loetav raamat. eelkõige illustreerib selle lugemise kogemus muidugi teose enda põhilist sõnumit, mis on see, et inimese aju ei tule tõenäosusülesannete lahendamisega eriti hästi toime. kõigi näidetega kaasamõtlemine pani vähemalt minu oma (aju siis) küll päris korralikult huugama.
aga siin seletati kenasti lahti see kuulus kahe kitse ja luksusautoga ülesanne (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem), juba selle nimel tasub lugeda, et selle vastust mõistma hakata.
mõned eestikeelses versioonis kasutatud terminid tekitasid minus küll kõhklust, aga on minugi kooliskäimisest nii palju aega möödas, et... äkki siis tõesti öeldaksegi nii. et võtan urnist kuule (oo, neid urne ja kuule küll mäletan tõenäosusteooria ja matemaatilise statistika loengutest) ja siis "asendan" neid? mitte ei pane lihtsalt tagasi? mul on tunne, et nii kulub eestlasel palju rohkem kuule kui Bernoullil endal kulus. see on küll pisiasi, sest ega need kuulid midagi ei maksa ju, eriti kuna nad on üleni puhas mõtteeksperiment. ainult et mulle tundub, et mõttelaisalt tõlgitud :(
ja mida paganat tähendab "rea auku ostmine" (raamatus samamoodi jutumärkides ja konteksti järgi otsustades peaks kuidagi pokkeriga seotud olema)?
funny
informative
medium-paced
Frankly, I went into this expecting something like a Gladwell or Taleb, and was disappointed. It's a hard task to tackle probability and randomness without a single formula, and the anecdotes were pretty good, but overall I didn't gain much from the book. It was concise, though, which is nice
emotional
funny
hopeful
informative
inspiring
reflective
medium-paced
Short summary: a must read if you are not familiar with the basic ideas of probability and statistics, and still a good read if you are familiar with the math but enjoy "history of mathematics" books (and I do!).
If I had to summarize this book in one sentence, I would quote page 11, "We habitually underestimate the effects of randomness." We assume, for example, that the hugely successful must have some secret or superior knowledge or talent. However, Mlodinow shows how, for example, given two people with the same skill, one may have a string of successes that makes them look like a superstar while another just does okay. This is most clearly demonstrated in sports where it is easier to assess someone's skill level (e.g., batting average), but the concept generalizes.
Each chapter focuses on a different mathematical concept. We get some history of the concept, amusing stories about the people involved, a high level explanation, and examples. The concepts the book introduces are
- "A and B" is always less likely than "A" or "B" alone.
- Sample spaces. If all outcomes are equally likely, you can figure out the probability of "winning" by comparing the number of outcomes considered wins with the total number of outcomes.
- If the outcomes are not all equally likely, you can still apply the idea of a sample space, but you have to weight the different outcomes.
- A large number of samples is required before what you observe can be expected to match the predicted probability.
- What you know changes what you know about the probability of an event (the gist of Bayesian reasoning without the math).
- Measurements have errors. Difference within the bounds of these errors are meaningless.
- Random variations over large populations tends to have discernible patterns (e.g., life expectancy), and there will always be some members at the extremes.
- People are really bad at telling whether or not data is random. They will perceive random data as non-random and non-random data as random.
The level of mathematical detail decreases as the book progresses, but the chapters build upon each other. Although explained in the least mathematical detail, the last two concepts are the most important. I think that understanding these concepts is required for a basic level of mathematical literacy. I think pseudoscience would do less well if we made sure that our education system achieved this level of mathematical literacy.
Actually, on that note, I think that given the importance of probabilistic and statistical literacy, we should be teaching that in high school, maybe instead of calculus. (And, of course, I am influenced by one of my professors from Harvey Mudd. (Watch the talk. It's only 3 minutes!))
If I had to summarize this book in one sentence, I would quote page 11, "We habitually underestimate the effects of randomness." We assume, for example, that the hugely successful must have some secret or superior knowledge or talent. However, Mlodinow shows how, for example, given two people with the same skill, one may have a string of successes that makes them look like a superstar while another just does okay. This is most clearly demonstrated in sports where it is easier to assess someone's skill level (e.g., batting average), but the concept generalizes.
Each chapter focuses on a different mathematical concept. We get some history of the concept, amusing stories about the people involved, a high level explanation, and examples. The concepts the book introduces are
- "A and B" is always less likely than "A" or "B" alone.
- Sample spaces. If all outcomes are equally likely, you can figure out the probability of "winning" by comparing the number of outcomes considered wins with the total number of outcomes.
- If the outcomes are not all equally likely, you can still apply the idea of a sample space, but you have to weight the different outcomes.
- A large number of samples is required before what you observe can be expected to match the predicted probability.
- What you know changes what you know about the probability of an event (the gist of Bayesian reasoning without the math).
- Measurements have errors. Difference within the bounds of these errors are meaningless.
- Random variations over large populations tends to have discernible patterns (e.g., life expectancy), and there will always be some members at the extremes.
- People are really bad at telling whether or not data is random. They will perceive random data as non-random and non-random data as random.
The level of mathematical detail decreases as the book progresses, but the chapters build upon each other. Although explained in the least mathematical detail, the last two concepts are the most important. I think that understanding these concepts is required for a basic level of mathematical literacy. I think pseudoscience would do less well if we made sure that our education system achieved this level of mathematical literacy.
Actually, on that note, I think that given the importance of probabilistic and statistical literacy, we should be teaching that in high school, maybe instead of calculus. (And, of course, I am influenced by one of my professors from Harvey Mudd. (Watch the talk. It's only 3 minutes!))
Starts off strong and ends strong with the applications and consequences of understanding versus misunderstanding chance and statistics (from over-assuming merit in success, to putting the wrong people in prison)
The middle 2/3rds of the book is an overview of important historical figures and the discoveries they made about probability and statistics.
I give this 5 stars not because it's that amazing but because it clearly communicates principles everyone should be at least passingly familiar with.
The middle 2/3rds of the book is an overview of important historical figures and the discoveries they made about probability and statistics.
I give this 5 stars not because it's that amazing but because it clearly communicates principles everyone should be at least passingly familiar with.
I read the first half of the book in one sitting, and yelled at myself, "What? It is about statistics". I first thought it was psychology or sociology. After reading a couple of books in between, by the time I picked up this book again, I was intrigued immediately AGAIN. At the beginning of each chapter, the author always feeds us a story, very unique, the kind that you never read before. Then he introduces a couple of concepts of statistics or a small history of the concept. It is very interesting and reading is very enjoyable.
2nd read:
Once again, I’ve had success and luck on the mind, which makes me think about the randomness of outcomes. So, I decided to give this book another read since it’s been a couple years, and it’s just as fantastic as the first time I read it. Leonard Mlodinow does such an excellent job explaining how randomness is involved with everything from personal success to the the success of companies, movies, books, and so many other things we don’t give a second thought. He highlights how people are rewarded or punished based on these outcomes, but randomness is rarely ever considered.
If you haven’t read this book yet, you’ll walk away absolutely baffled at how often we’re sold on this deterministic idea that things happened the way they should have. The reality is that randomness is doing it’s thing. To end the book Mlodinow dives into some social psychology research about how we judge a person’s worth by their status or wealth, and that is a major issue because most people were either dealt a bad hand or an extremely lucky hand.
There are some points in the book where the math off probabilities goes way over my head, but anyone can easily follow along with this book. Get this book if you haven’t yet, and if you have it, give it another read. I’ve actually been teaching my son about some of the topics from this book.
1st read:
Human's are control freaks by design, and I'm no different. We love to think that we have far more control than we do, which is why I love reading books about how randomness impacts our lives. I've been meaning to read this book for months, and I finally had the time to check it out. At certain points, it gets a little too math-heavy for my liking, but overall, it's a great book. The author does a fantastic job discussing different cognitive traps we fall into that make us miss the randomness in everyday life. It also teaches us that by being aware of these random events, we can make better long-term decisions while also practicing some humility.
Once again, I’ve had success and luck on the mind, which makes me think about the randomness of outcomes. So, I decided to give this book another read since it’s been a couple years, and it’s just as fantastic as the first time I read it. Leonard Mlodinow does such an excellent job explaining how randomness is involved with everything from personal success to the the success of companies, movies, books, and so many other things we don’t give a second thought. He highlights how people are rewarded or punished based on these outcomes, but randomness is rarely ever considered.
If you haven’t read this book yet, you’ll walk away absolutely baffled at how often we’re sold on this deterministic idea that things happened the way they should have. The reality is that randomness is doing it’s thing. To end the book Mlodinow dives into some social psychology research about how we judge a person’s worth by their status or wealth, and that is a major issue because most people were either dealt a bad hand or an extremely lucky hand.
There are some points in the book where the math off probabilities goes way over my head, but anyone can easily follow along with this book. Get this book if you haven’t yet, and if you have it, give it another read. I’ve actually been teaching my son about some of the topics from this book.
1st read:
Human's are control freaks by design, and I'm no different. We love to think that we have far more control than we do, which is why I love reading books about how randomness impacts our lives. I've been meaning to read this book for months, and I finally had the time to check it out. At certain points, it gets a little too math-heavy for my liking, but overall, it's a great book. The author does a fantastic job discussing different cognitive traps we fall into that make us miss the randomness in everyday life. It also teaches us that by being aware of these random events, we can make better long-term decisions while also practicing some humility.
Nice book going over scenarios where randomness is the primary driver of outcomes & also of situations where humans perceive randomness when there is actually none. A fun, light read.
Very interesting read. I thought it got better in the second half, but I did enjoy how it pointed out how randomness affects our lives and how lots of people often misinterpret it.