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35 reviews for:
Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World
Tom Chivers
3.93 AVERAGE
35 reviews for:
Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World
Tom Chivers
3.93 AVERAGE
A good book about Bayesian statistics with a couple of flaws. Overall, the explanation of the theorem, with arguments for and against and reqular discussion of frequentism, is very well written. However, the flaws. He gets a syllogism and a few other things one.
One issue that pops up a couple of times in the discussion between the two theories is a seeming lack of understanding of another key comparison in statistics: permutations and combinations. That's best displayed in a let discussion of two children, one being a boy. The author claims the options are girl-girl, girl-boy, boy-girl, and boy-boy. That is only the case with permutations, if order matters. In the problem presented, it doesn't. There are only three options, with the middle two only being one, with the concept of combinations. His math is then wrong.
Still, a good book worth reading.
One issue that pops up a couple of times in the discussion between the two theories is a seeming lack of understanding of another key comparison in statistics: permutations and combinations. That's best displayed in a let discussion of two children, one being a boy. The author claims the options are girl-girl, girl-boy, boy-girl, and boy-boy. That is only the case with permutations, if order matters. In the problem presented, it doesn't. There are only three options, with the middle two only being one, with the concept of combinations. His math is then wrong.
Still, a good book worth reading.
hopeful
informative
reflective
medium-paced
medium-paced
informative
medium-paced
challenging
informative
lighthearted
fast-paced
This was a nice read on the Bayes Theorem and its applications across domains.
The first two sections of the book were my least favourite. One was a historical deep dive with short vignettes and the second was a dive into scientific methodologies. Neither of those interested me very much. It felt hard to understand in parts. My limited background with rigorous scientific analytical methodologies was not greatly improved by the complicated explanations.
From chapter 3 onwards, the book gets interesting. That's more of the space I inhabit and enjoy, one closer to Godel Escher Bach in spirit.
The book had many interesting situations and explanations and the writing style was lucid and enjoyable. It was a good read.
The first two sections of the book were my least favourite. One was a historical deep dive with short vignettes and the second was a dive into scientific methodologies. Neither of those interested me very much. It felt hard to understand in parts. My limited background with rigorous scientific analytical methodologies was not greatly improved by the complicated explanations.
From chapter 3 onwards, the book gets interesting. That's more of the space I inhabit and enjoy, one closer to Godel Escher Bach in spirit.
The book had many interesting situations and explanations and the writing style was lucid and enjoyable. It was a good read.
informative
I honestly don't know what to think about this book. First of all, I am not really engrossed in the statistics world, so I mostly read this book as a newbie without any prior knowledge about the Frequentists and Bayesians sides.
It even seems a little off for me to be reviewing it, because I fear I would not give it a valid review and it feels somehow wrong to give it a 3 star rating, just because I didn't understand the book so clearly. However, the whole point of Bayes is to take into account our own priors and experiences, so I will stand on my opinion.
The book was hard. Really hard to read, a lot of information to crunch, data to process, backstories to understand. The author sometimes went off on some biographical backgrounds regarding big key players in statistics and sometimes one might say philosophical rants.
While I appreciate some insights of using Bayes in all sorts of situations, from science to everyday life, I do not like how the book tried to push Bayes down the reader's throat.
Of course, a book dedicated to Bayes is going to try to do exactly that, however it still feels off-putting, I find the idea that Bayes can be used on every single aspect of life straight preposterous. If all you got is a hammer, then treating everything as a nail is a dangerous way of thinking. I might delve too deep now, but shouldn't the very concept of Bayes insinuate that purely thinking in Bayes can be potential wrong and not cover correctly all the scenarios.
On the other hand, I could just be plainly wrong and failing to understand the book, after all I wasn't even able to correctly calculate at first the probability of a parent having two boys, if at least one of them is a boy (until I used Bayes on it). Either way, the book does make you pause and think, that is something which I very much appreciated.
It even seems a little off for me to be reviewing it, because I fear I would not give it a valid review and it feels somehow wrong to give it a 3 star rating, just because I didn't understand the book so clearly. However, the whole point of Bayes is to take into account our own priors and experiences, so I will stand on my opinion.
The book was hard. Really hard to read, a lot of information to crunch, data to process, backstories to understand. The author sometimes went off on some biographical backgrounds regarding big key players in statistics and sometimes one might say philosophical rants.
While I appreciate some insights of using Bayes in all sorts of situations, from science to everyday life, I do not like how the book tried to push Bayes down the reader's throat.
Of course, a book dedicated to Bayes is going to try to do exactly that, however it still feels off-putting, I find the idea that Bayes can be used on every single aspect of life straight preposterous. If all you got is a hammer, then treating everything as a nail is a dangerous way of thinking. I might delve too deep now, but shouldn't the very concept of Bayes insinuate that purely thinking in Bayes can be potential wrong and not cover correctly all the scenarios.
On the other hand, I could just be plainly wrong and failing to understand the book, after all I wasn't even able to correctly calculate at first the probability of a parent having two boys, if at least one of them is a boy (until I used Bayes on it). Either way, the book does make you pause and think, that is something which I very much appreciated.
informative
medium-paced
informative
lighthearted
relaxing
fast-paced