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loppear's review
4.0
A reasoned and reasonable heartfelt plea for the world to accept the possibility and implications of "overshoot" of the capacity of a finite world. They convincingly argue that if there are physical limits (to resources, sources, and sinks), and delays in society's response to signals of approaching these limits (due to incomplete information, capital turnover, intentional misdirection) then overshoot follows. More importantly, if those limits are "erodable" - if exceeding the limit reduces the capability of that source/sink in the future, then overshoot leads to collapse - a permanent, or at least permanent on human scales, reduction in possible global human welfare.
The core of the book is a series of scenario runs of their model of global systems - resources, industrial output, population, pollution, agriculture, etc. They reiterate that like all models, especially those in our heads, theirs is necessarily simplified - you need to evaluate if the simplifications help your understanding of the system. It's depressingly clear that in general the simplifications in their model will tend to be optimistic compared to the real world (perfect markets, no wars, no distinction between rich and poor), and the stories the scenarios tell are nonetheless not optimistic. There are "layers of limits" - if we deal with resource constraints we hit pollution constraints, if we deal with that we hit food constraints, etc.
The final message is clear, and hopefully inspiring: the longer we delay dealing with our current overshoot the harder collapse will be to avoid. Unless society embraces a sustainable understanding of the earth instead of embracing growth as a cure-all good, even very optimistic technological hopes for dealing with limits cannot cope with the exponential nature of population growth and material expectations. We can't get the whole world to live as the rich do today, but we can all live well. Maybe.
The core of the book is a series of scenario runs of their model of global systems - resources, industrial output, population, pollution, agriculture, etc. They reiterate that like all models, especially those in our heads, theirs is necessarily simplified - you need to evaluate if the simplifications help your understanding of the system. It's depressingly clear that in general the simplifications in their model will tend to be optimistic compared to the real world (perfect markets, no wars, no distinction between rich and poor), and the stories the scenarios tell are nonetheless not optimistic. There are "layers of limits" - if we deal with resource constraints we hit pollution constraints, if we deal with that we hit food constraints, etc.
The final message is clear, and hopefully inspiring: the longer we delay dealing with our current overshoot the harder collapse will be to avoid. Unless society embraces a sustainable understanding of the earth instead of embracing growth as a cure-all good, even very optimistic technological hopes for dealing with limits cannot cope with the exponential nature of population growth and material expectations. We can't get the whole world to live as the rich do today, but we can all live well. Maybe.
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