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kirstinbrie's review against another edition
hopeful
informative
reflective
medium-paced
4.0
This was a very interesting book to read, and it allowed me to think about technology and its place in my personal and professional life in a slightly different way. I'm excited about exploring some of the ideas in this book (especially around the skills humans need to future-proof ourselves), and reading more on the topic now that 7 years has passed since it was published.
workable123's review against another edition
4.0
Although the examples are a bit out-of-date, the authors do capture many of the relevant trends shaping the evolution of the workplace. The writing is incredibly approachable while incorporating an array of studies from economics, sociology, industrial relations and beyond. Their section on the superstar economy was particularly compelling.
Because they discussed that barriers (both psychological and financial) to organizational process change inhibit the productivity gains from new technologies, I can't help but wonder whether the current global pandemic and economic devastation will serve as an exogenous shock to catalyze many of the changes they discuss.
Because they discussed that barriers (both psychological and financial) to organizational process change inhibit the productivity gains from new technologies, I can't help but wonder whether the current global pandemic and economic devastation will serve as an exogenous shock to catalyze many of the changes they discuss.
cdnguardian's review against another edition
4.0
This text provides a lucid, in-depth review of the impacts of automation and artificial intelligence on the modern workforce, including examples of similar stages from history and also some examples of how this time it is different. It also includes some ideas on where AI and automation is more likely to have a bigger impact, where it is less likely to impact, the potential impact to the job force, and some ways we may be able to leverage the coming boom.
wilte's review against another edition
3.0
Techno-optimists, interesting read but because things happen so fast sometimes feels a bit dated on current affairs (eg the part on peer-sharing). But quite relevant for future trends.
Stuff I highlighted:
This work led us to three broad conclusions. The first is that we’re living in a time of astonishing progress with digital technologies.Our second conclusion is that the transformations brought about by digital technology will be profoundly beneficial ones.
It’s important to discuss the likely negative consequences of the second machine age and start a dialogue about how to mitigate them—we are confident that they’re not insurmountable. But they won’t fix themselves, either.
It is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult-level performance on intelligence tests or playing checkers, and difficult or impossible to give them the skills of a one-year-old when it comes to perception and mobility.” This situation has come to be known as Moravec’s paradox, nicely summarized by Wikipedia as “the discovery by artificial intelligence and robotics researchers that, contrary to traditional assumptions, high-level reasoning requires very little computation, but low-level sensorimotor skills require enormous computational resources.
understand the nature of technological progress in the era of digital hardware, software, and networks. In particular, we need to understand its three key characteristics: that it is exponential, digital, and combinatorial
In the second machine age, the doublings happen much faster and exponential growth is much more salient. Second-Half Technol
This surge in digitization has had two profound consequences: new ways of acquiring knowledge (in other words, of doing science) and higher rates of innovation.
Copying bits is also extremely cheap, fast, and easy to do. While the very first copy of a book or movie might cost a lot to create, making additional copies cost almost nothing. This is what is meant by “zero marginal cost of reproduction.”
Shapiro and Varian elegantly summarize these attributes by stating that in an age of computers and networks, “Information is costly to produce but cheap to reproduce.”
ost economic historians concur with the assessment that ICT meets all of the criteria given above, and so should join the club of general purpose technologies.
complexity scholar Brian Arthur summarizes in his book The Nature of Technology, “To invent something is to find it in what previously exists.”
HE PREVIOUS FIVE CHAPTERS laid out the outstanding features of the second machine age: sustained exponential improvement in most aspects of computing, extraordinarily large amounts of digitized information, and recombinant innovation. These three forces are yielding breakthroughs that convert science fiction into everyday reality, outstripping even our recent expectations and theories. What’s more, there’s no end in sight.
Daron Acemoglu and David Autor suggests that work can be divided into a two-by-two matrix: cognitive versus manual and routine versus nonroutine. They found that the demand for work has been falling most dramatically for routine tasks, regardless of whether they are cognitive or manual.
Digitization creates winner-take-all markets because with digital goods capacity constraints become increasingly irrelevant.
Instead of being confident that the bounty from technology will more than compensate for the spread it generates, we are instead concerned about something close to the reverse: that the spread could actually reduce the bounty in years to come.
This view—that automation and other forms of technological progress in aggregate create more jobs than they destroy—has come to dominate the discipline of economics. To believe otherwise is to succumb to the “Luddite Fallacy.”
So ideation, large-frame pattern recognition, and the most complex forms of communication are cognitive areas where people still seem to have the advantage, and also seem likely to hold on to it for some time to come.
legends and myths populated by fantastical automatons made of clay (like the Jewish golem or Norse giant Mokkerkalfe, built to battle Thor),
The technologies we are creating provide vastly more power to change the world, but with that power comes greater responsibility. That’s why we aren’t technological determinists, and that’s why we devoted three chapters in this book to a set of recommendations that we think will improve the odds of achieving a society with shared prosperity.
As we have fewer constraints on what we can do, it is then inevitable that our values will matter more than ever. Will we choose to have information widely disseminated or tightly controlled? Will our prosperity be broadly shared? What will be the nature and magnitude of rewards we give to our innovators? Will we build vibrant relationships and communities? Will everyone have the opportunities to discover, create, and enjoy the best of life? In the second machine age, we need to think much more deeply about what it is we really want and what we value, both as individuals and as a society. Our generation has inherited more opportunities to transform the world than any other. That’s a cause for optimism, but only if we’re mindful of our choices. Technology is not destiny. We shape our destiny.
Mankiw thought experiment: pill discovered that adds one year of life to anyone who takes it, but costs $100,000 per pill to produce—more than most people could afford. Would we ban it, ration it, or regulate it in some way? http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/09/the-price-of-magic-pills.html
Stuff I highlighted:
This work led us to three broad conclusions. The first is that we’re living in a time of astonishing progress with digital technologies.Our second conclusion is that the transformations brought about by digital technology will be profoundly beneficial ones.
It’s important to discuss the likely negative consequences of the second machine age and start a dialogue about how to mitigate them—we are confident that they’re not insurmountable. But they won’t fix themselves, either.
It is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult-level performance on intelligence tests or playing checkers, and difficult or impossible to give them the skills of a one-year-old when it comes to perception and mobility.” This situation has come to be known as Moravec’s paradox, nicely summarized by Wikipedia as “the discovery by artificial intelligence and robotics researchers that, contrary to traditional assumptions, high-level reasoning requires very little computation, but low-level sensorimotor skills require enormous computational resources.
understand the nature of technological progress in the era of digital hardware, software, and networks. In particular, we need to understand its three key characteristics: that it is exponential, digital, and combinatorial
In the second machine age, the doublings happen much faster and exponential growth is much more salient. Second-Half Technol
This surge in digitization has had two profound consequences: new ways of acquiring knowledge (in other words, of doing science) and higher rates of innovation.
Copying bits is also extremely cheap, fast, and easy to do. While the very first copy of a book or movie might cost a lot to create, making additional copies cost almost nothing. This is what is meant by “zero marginal cost of reproduction.”
Shapiro and Varian elegantly summarize these attributes by stating that in an age of computers and networks, “Information is costly to produce but cheap to reproduce.”
ost economic historians concur with the assessment that ICT meets all of the criteria given above, and so should join the club of general purpose technologies.
complexity scholar Brian Arthur summarizes in his book The Nature of Technology, “To invent something is to find it in what previously exists.”
HE PREVIOUS FIVE CHAPTERS laid out the outstanding features of the second machine age: sustained exponential improvement in most aspects of computing, extraordinarily large amounts of digitized information, and recombinant innovation. These three forces are yielding breakthroughs that convert science fiction into everyday reality, outstripping even our recent expectations and theories. What’s more, there’s no end in sight.
Daron Acemoglu and David Autor suggests that work can be divided into a two-by-two matrix: cognitive versus manual and routine versus nonroutine. They found that the demand for work has been falling most dramatically for routine tasks, regardless of whether they are cognitive or manual.
Digitization creates winner-take-all markets because with digital goods capacity constraints become increasingly irrelevant.
Instead of being confident that the bounty from technology will more than compensate for the spread it generates, we are instead concerned about something close to the reverse: that the spread could actually reduce the bounty in years to come.
This view—that automation and other forms of technological progress in aggregate create more jobs than they destroy—has come to dominate the discipline of economics. To believe otherwise is to succumb to the “Luddite Fallacy.”
So ideation, large-frame pattern recognition, and the most complex forms of communication are cognitive areas where people still seem to have the advantage, and also seem likely to hold on to it for some time to come.
legends and myths populated by fantastical automatons made of clay (like the Jewish golem or Norse giant Mokkerkalfe, built to battle Thor),
The technologies we are creating provide vastly more power to change the world, but with that power comes greater responsibility. That’s why we aren’t technological determinists, and that’s why we devoted three chapters in this book to a set of recommendations that we think will improve the odds of achieving a society with shared prosperity.
As we have fewer constraints on what we can do, it is then inevitable that our values will matter more than ever. Will we choose to have information widely disseminated or tightly controlled? Will our prosperity be broadly shared? What will be the nature and magnitude of rewards we give to our innovators? Will we build vibrant relationships and communities? Will everyone have the opportunities to discover, create, and enjoy the best of life? In the second machine age, we need to think much more deeply about what it is we really want and what we value, both as individuals and as a society. Our generation has inherited more opportunities to transform the world than any other. That’s a cause for optimism, but only if we’re mindful of our choices. Technology is not destiny. We shape our destiny.
Mankiw thought experiment: pill discovered that adds one year of life to anyone who takes it, but costs $100,000 per pill to produce—more than most people could afford. Would we ban it, ration it, or regulate it in some way? http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/09/the-price-of-magic-pills.html
craigbruney's review against another edition
4.0
Does a great job clearly identifying and describing all the problems presented by the rapid progression of technology. However, the last few chapters dedicated to various solutions oddly rambles, offers few specifics, offer solutions to problems not addressed in the book (like traffic congestion). Would have been better had they expanded on the few specific solutions they call out (education, life long training/adaptability, negative income tax, and VAT).
peter_leest's review against another edition
4.0
The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies) deals with themes that are increasingly getting a lot of attention in academic an popular discussion fora: the effect of technology on how we work and how this will impact welfare.
The first part of the book is not that interesting. Here the authors provide some examples of how technology is changing rapidly and how tasks such as driving a car can now be performed by a computerised car. If you read a lot of technology related books, work in a technology related field, or even read some tech related blogs and magazines, many of these examples will not be new to you.
However, the second part is where the book really becomes interesting. Brynjolfsson and McAfee discuss various approaches and strategies on how to deal with the second machine age. Most obvious among these are to train people to work with machines, as opposed to competing with them. Most compelling was the policy related suggestions the authors made, such a guaranteed minimum income, Pigovian tax and negative income tax .
To conclude: this is a fine book and it touches on a bunch of relevant subjects. I just wish the second part was more elaborate.
The first part of the book is not that interesting. Here the authors provide some examples of how technology is changing rapidly and how tasks such as driving a car can now be performed by a computerised car. If you read a lot of technology related books, work in a technology related field, or even read some tech related blogs and magazines, many of these examples will not be new to you.
However, the second part is where the book really becomes interesting. Brynjolfsson and McAfee discuss various approaches and strategies on how to deal with the second machine age. Most obvious among these are to train people to work with machines, as opposed to competing with them. Most compelling was the policy related suggestions the authors made, such a guaranteed minimum income, Pigovian tax and negative income tax .
To conclude: this is a fine book and it touches on a bunch of relevant subjects. I just wish the second part was more elaborate.
marrije's review against another edition
4.0
Delicious. Sensible, cautiously optimistic, and well-written - I loved this intelligent take on what's going on in technology and the economy.
ericlawton's review against another edition
2.0
I just reviewed [b:Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future|22928874|Rise of the Robots Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future|Martin Ford|https://images.gr-assets.com/books/1411605128s/22928874.jpg|42498449] which is quite similar but with much more support for its conclusions. If you read Rise of the Robots, there's not a lot of point reading this one unless you already bought this and are very interested in the topic.
marmotilla's review against another edition
4.0
Overall a quite interesting read, but I was a bit disappointed by the policy recommendations chapter, which is the topic I was most interested in.
It's ironic how some parts of the book already feel a bit outdated despite it not being old at all. Ah, technology...
It's ironic how some parts of the book already feel a bit outdated despite it not being old at all. Ah, technology...
muthuraj's review against another edition
4.0
There was a time when tractors replaced huge amounts of human labor. There were people who gained, and in some cases, technological innovations including farming machinery, ultimately created more jobs then they destroyed. However, with the advent of digital machines, this is no longer true. A single machine that eliminates thousands of humans, doesn't create ten jobs in that place.
More importantly, in a country like India, where it hasn't been so big a factor in employment, the possible influence of computers as replacement to human labor has been grossly underestimated.
This book is an excellent primer for someone who wants to understand why services companies are hiring less entry level engineers, and why there will be a net decay of employment growth in sectors that can utilize computers and machines.
We start with a tracing of human innovation vs population size. We are swiftly taken through an array of problems that have been conquered by the machines, which was once thought impossible. Moracev paradox is introduced, and the authors even try to make us understand the power of an exponential curve.
From there, there are discussions of progress made, effects of them. There is also an attempt to quantify and assign value to labor in the form of tagging Facebook photos and such misc takes that we perform online.
Employment, it's relation to social and individual welfare and eloquently put across, and the book mentions a variety of suggestions to combat this second machine age. From universal basic income to "Made by humans" label, there is no dearth for plausible and simple ideas.
It could've been more internationalized. It was too focused on America and while that is not a deal breaker, a better version would be to see the world as a whole.
Recommended read.
More importantly, in a country like India, where it hasn't been so big a factor in employment, the possible influence of computers as replacement to human labor has been grossly underestimated.
This book is an excellent primer for someone who wants to understand why services companies are hiring less entry level engineers, and why there will be a net decay of employment growth in sectors that can utilize computers and machines.
We start with a tracing of human innovation vs population size. We are swiftly taken through an array of problems that have been conquered by the machines, which was once thought impossible. Moracev paradox is introduced, and the authors even try to make us understand the power of an exponential curve.
From there, there are discussions of progress made, effects of them. There is also an attempt to quantify and assign value to labor in the form of tagging Facebook photos and such misc takes that we perform online.
Employment, it's relation to social and individual welfare and eloquently put across, and the book mentions a variety of suggestions to combat this second machine age. From universal basic income to "Made by humans" label, there is no dearth for plausible and simple ideas.
It could've been more internationalized. It was too focused on America and while that is not a deal breaker, a better version would be to see the world as a whole.
Recommended read.