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42 reviews for:
2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything
Mauro F. Guillén
3.59 AVERAGE
42 reviews for:
2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything
Mauro F. Guillén
3.59 AVERAGE
Not many of these things make sense to me... but I guess we’ll see what happens in 9 years!
I really enjoyed this! It's a solid nonfiction book that is deliberative and specific in its scope and focus. Some of the information was really familiar to me (population trends, increasing power of technology, power of cities) but there was a ton of novel information as well, particularly the connections Guillen makes, which is a main focus in this thesis. He argues that we need to look at multiple factors rather than isolated patterns, and can't look at bulk data solely, but need to break things down into smaller demographic groups. The chapter breakdowns (each between 45 minutes and an hour of reading) were really well paced, sourced, and argued, and the variety of topics covered was well-rounded and informative. His book (obviously) does not address the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world, but I'm intrigued to see how prescient his predictions will be, and how many things might change as a result (particularly in regards to his predictions about cities).
I would highly recommend this to people who love current & topical nonfiction books, those interested in nonprofit/change sectors, and those who like predictive books about current trends and demographics.
4.5 stars
I would highly recommend this to people who love current & topical nonfiction books, those interested in nonprofit/change sectors, and those who like predictive books about current trends and demographics.
4.5 stars
With all that is rapidly changing in today's society, this was exactly the book I needed to read.
It examines history patterns, current events and with that determines what our future in 2030 could look like and the conclusions it draws is very plausible.
There was a lot that I learned while reading the course of this book, even if I considered myself well versed in current events, I enjoyed the various perspectives and insights it was exposed. It is a great book for a conversation starter amongst friends/family to open up lively debate discussions.
At times, it can be seem it might not be relevant to your part of the world but it did help me connect how the impact of one nation can impact others - I'd recommend this read for an eye-opening perspective and to more interestingly to see if any of these trends/predictions come to fruition.
It examines history patterns, current events and with that determines what our future in 2030 could look like and the conclusions it draws is very plausible.
There was a lot that I learned while reading the course of this book, even if I considered myself well versed in current events, I enjoyed the various perspectives and insights it was exposed. It is a great book for a conversation starter amongst friends/family to open up lively debate discussions.
At times, it can be seem it might not be relevant to your part of the world but it did help me connect how the impact of one nation can impact others - I'd recommend this read for an eye-opening perspective and to more interestingly to see if any of these trends/predictions come to fruition.
Would Lehman Brothers have had a more encouraging prospect if it was Lehmann Sisters instead? What is the connection between block-chain technology and a national election? In his book “2030” (one of the shortest ever main titles for a book succeeded by what has to be one of the longest subtitles ever for any literary work), Mauro F. Guillen, Zandman Professor of International Management, Wharton School and Director, Lauder Institute, tackles these questions along with a whole horde of seemingly unconnected but intricately linked phenomena as he proceeds to dissect some of the most disruptive trends that the world would be a spectator to by the year 2030.
The book mulls about the tectonic trends, that by the year 2030 would put paid to the conventional, and upend received wisdom. For example, as the author highlights, the most powerful middle class both in terms of sheer population and purchasing power by the year 2030 would be in India and China. In a humorous take on Arthur R. “Pop” Momand’s memorable conception of “Keeping up with the Joneses”, Mr. Guillen mulls that in future, it would be a case of “Keeping Up With the Singhs and Wangs.” This is also in line with the funnel of innovation that seems to have sprouted in the two most populous nations on Earth. “…while in 2016, the number of patent applications filed in the United States was three times greater than in 1995, in India it was seven times greater, and in China, a whopping seventy-two times greater.”
If you are a woman and you are reading this, drop whatever it is that may be doing, do a cartwheel, or two, and whoop out in undisguised glee. For according to Mr. Guillen, women will get rich – and most importantly richer than men – by the year 2030. This trend, the author argues is in keeping with the famous, or rather infamous (depending upon how one interprets the findings), “Harvard-Yale Study” that “resonated with educated women who were trying to balance their professional goals with personal life.” From a risk aversion perspective, women tend to spend more on their own physical and mental well being and are more inclined to ensure that their parents, off-spring and grandchildren get the healthcare that is essential. The author after quoting Gloria Steinem “we can tell our values by looking at our checkbook stubs”, argues that, “its not much of a stretch to argue that if instead of Lehman Brothers we had Lehman Sisters, the crisis of 2008 might have been averted.”
Whilst holding forth on futuristic trends, one cannot afford to either neglect or ignore the existential threat of Global Warming, and neither does Mr. Guillen. Cities, according to him have become teeming masses of humanity and unless drastic and conscientious measures are instituted, these megapolises face imminent peril. “Cities occupy 1 percent of the world’s land yet are home to about 55 percent of the human population. Told another way, the total land mass on Earth is 196.9 million square miles and cities account for roughly 2 million of those. With 4 billion urban residents, that’s an average of 2,000 people per square mile in cities, which is quite a crowd. Cities account for 75 percent of total energy consumption and 80 percent of total carbon emissions.” Sobering statistic and a time for introspection in so far as humanity, that is more tightly packed than a cliched can of sardines, is concerned.
An added melancholic aspect attached to the new age city, according to the author is its dehumanization. Mr. Guillen proclaims that our cities have lost their soul and are beginning to alienate themselves. Characterised by stereotypical architecture and grotesquely towering monuments, that bear shameless testimony – in addition to paying brazen obeisance – to capitalism, one cannot but agree with Mr. Guillen. Drawing his reader’s attention to the twentieth century Italian metaphysical painter Giorgio de Chirico, Mr. Guillen mulls about the bleak paintings of the acclaimed artist. He also quotes the poet Federico Garcia Lorca, who in 1929 after a stay in New York said, “there is nothing more poetic and terrible than the skyscrapers’ battle with the heavens that cover them.”
Mr. Guillen also offers a kind of liberation and escape from the vice like grip of a city life. Drawing on the principle of “mundanity of excellence” – a term coined by the sociologist Daniel Chambliss, Mr. Guillen educates his readers that high performance is not a natural outcome or corollary of quantum leaps or innate talent, but, a product of a series of tiny and incremental improvements.
Mr. Guillen also jumps on the bandwagon of vertical farming and its perceivable benefits (if this statement comes across as an exercise in complaining, then I ask the author to pardon me.). This proposition of Dickson Despommier of Columbia University has fast gained traction, and companies such as Sky Greens, Green Collar Foods and Artesian Farms have made a veritable enterprise out of the novel concept.
But one of the most important trends identified by Mr. Guillen in “2030” appears in a chapter titled “Imagine No Possessions.” An obvious take on John Lennon and Yoko Ono’s immortal melody, this chapter deals about the inescapable rise of the gig economy. The likes of Uber and Airbnb have demonstrated with a chilling precision that the best way to enjoy possession is by not possessing the product or the service or the experience that triggers such enjoyment! As Mr. Guillen illustrates, “in 2014 Facebook paid $19 billion to purchase WhatsApp, a messaging app with virtually no physical assets to speak of and fewer than sixty employees.” Airbnb, in addition to providing hassle free accommodation to the egregious back packer also bestows upon the owner a spectacular financial benefit. A senior citizen who owns a house can now earn a steady income by letting out a part of his property without being beholden to a bank, which otherwise would have been the unfortunate case in the event loans were obtained with the house as an inevitable collateral.
However, the gig economy brings along with it, a set of unfortunate inconveniences. Crowded cities, and traffic congestion may result in a tragedy of commons, a concept pioneered by the sociologist Garrett Hardin, in 1968, and first observed by the nineteenth century British economist William Forster Lloyd, who penned the environmental hazards that might accrue as a result of grazing on unregulated lands.
Mr. Guillen rounds off his book with a Chapter on Bitcoins and Cryptocurrencies. The burgeoning rise of cryptocurrencies has ensured that there are more currencies on Earth than countries. What makes cryptocurrencies very alluring is their perceivable safety. “Consider that the odds of guessing a winning Powerball lottery number is 1 in 292 million. The probability of hacking a bitcoin private key, which uses 256-bit encryption, is a minuscule 1 in 2 to the power of 256, or 1 in over 115 quattuorvigintillion – a number with 78 digits. That’s equivalent to the odds of winning Powerball nine times in a row.”
Estonia seems to have grasped this concept perfectly well. Presenting itself to the world as “e-Estonia”, the country is a Digital Republic. The citizens, as the author points out can apply for benefits, source medical prescriptions, register their businesses, vote and even access nearly three thousand other digital services online. The author opines that from facilitating elections to funding development, blockchain technology may be the way forward.
As we are trying to tortuously untangle ourselves from the grip of an insidious pandemic, words like the “new Normal”, “social distancing etc.” are rewriting our everyday Lexicon and rewiring our attitudes and outlook. These unprecedented times are the ones where re-imagination, reinvention and repackaging would save the day for mankind. Yet more trends, perhaps for Mr. Guillen to seriously start mulling about a sequel!
(2030 How Today’s Biggest Trends will collide and reshape the future of everything by Mauro F. Guillen, a St Martin’s Press Publication published on the 25th of August 2020).
The book mulls about the tectonic trends, that by the year 2030 would put paid to the conventional, and upend received wisdom. For example, as the author highlights, the most powerful middle class both in terms of sheer population and purchasing power by the year 2030 would be in India and China. In a humorous take on Arthur R. “Pop” Momand’s memorable conception of “Keeping up with the Joneses”, Mr. Guillen mulls that in future, it would be a case of “Keeping Up With the Singhs and Wangs.” This is also in line with the funnel of innovation that seems to have sprouted in the two most populous nations on Earth. “…while in 2016, the number of patent applications filed in the United States was three times greater than in 1995, in India it was seven times greater, and in China, a whopping seventy-two times greater.”
If you are a woman and you are reading this, drop whatever it is that may be doing, do a cartwheel, or two, and whoop out in undisguised glee. For according to Mr. Guillen, women will get rich – and most importantly richer than men – by the year 2030. This trend, the author argues is in keeping with the famous, or rather infamous (depending upon how one interprets the findings), “Harvard-Yale Study” that “resonated with educated women who were trying to balance their professional goals with personal life.” From a risk aversion perspective, women tend to spend more on their own physical and mental well being and are more inclined to ensure that their parents, off-spring and grandchildren get the healthcare that is essential. The author after quoting Gloria Steinem “we can tell our values by looking at our checkbook stubs”, argues that, “its not much of a stretch to argue that if instead of Lehman Brothers we had Lehman Sisters, the crisis of 2008 might have been averted.”
Whilst holding forth on futuristic trends, one cannot afford to either neglect or ignore the existential threat of Global Warming, and neither does Mr. Guillen. Cities, according to him have become teeming masses of humanity and unless drastic and conscientious measures are instituted, these megapolises face imminent peril. “Cities occupy 1 percent of the world’s land yet are home to about 55 percent of the human population. Told another way, the total land mass on Earth is 196.9 million square miles and cities account for roughly 2 million of those. With 4 billion urban residents, that’s an average of 2,000 people per square mile in cities, which is quite a crowd. Cities account for 75 percent of total energy consumption and 80 percent of total carbon emissions.” Sobering statistic and a time for introspection in so far as humanity, that is more tightly packed than a cliched can of sardines, is concerned.
An added melancholic aspect attached to the new age city, according to the author is its dehumanization. Mr. Guillen proclaims that our cities have lost their soul and are beginning to alienate themselves. Characterised by stereotypical architecture and grotesquely towering monuments, that bear shameless testimony – in addition to paying brazen obeisance – to capitalism, one cannot but agree with Mr. Guillen. Drawing his reader’s attention to the twentieth century Italian metaphysical painter Giorgio de Chirico, Mr. Guillen mulls about the bleak paintings of the acclaimed artist. He also quotes the poet Federico Garcia Lorca, who in 1929 after a stay in New York said, “there is nothing more poetic and terrible than the skyscrapers’ battle with the heavens that cover them.”
Mr. Guillen also offers a kind of liberation and escape from the vice like grip of a city life. Drawing on the principle of “mundanity of excellence” – a term coined by the sociologist Daniel Chambliss, Mr. Guillen educates his readers that high performance is not a natural outcome or corollary of quantum leaps or innate talent, but, a product of a series of tiny and incremental improvements.
Mr. Guillen also jumps on the bandwagon of vertical farming and its perceivable benefits (if this statement comes across as an exercise in complaining, then I ask the author to pardon me.). This proposition of Dickson Despommier of Columbia University has fast gained traction, and companies such as Sky Greens, Green Collar Foods and Artesian Farms have made a veritable enterprise out of the novel concept.
But one of the most important trends identified by Mr. Guillen in “2030” appears in a chapter titled “Imagine No Possessions.” An obvious take on John Lennon and Yoko Ono’s immortal melody, this chapter deals about the inescapable rise of the gig economy. The likes of Uber and Airbnb have demonstrated with a chilling precision that the best way to enjoy possession is by not possessing the product or the service or the experience that triggers such enjoyment! As Mr. Guillen illustrates, “in 2014 Facebook paid $19 billion to purchase WhatsApp, a messaging app with virtually no physical assets to speak of and fewer than sixty employees.” Airbnb, in addition to providing hassle free accommodation to the egregious back packer also bestows upon the owner a spectacular financial benefit. A senior citizen who owns a house can now earn a steady income by letting out a part of his property without being beholden to a bank, which otherwise would have been the unfortunate case in the event loans were obtained with the house as an inevitable collateral.
However, the gig economy brings along with it, a set of unfortunate inconveniences. Crowded cities, and traffic congestion may result in a tragedy of commons, a concept pioneered by the sociologist Garrett Hardin, in 1968, and first observed by the nineteenth century British economist William Forster Lloyd, who penned the environmental hazards that might accrue as a result of grazing on unregulated lands.
Mr. Guillen rounds off his book with a Chapter on Bitcoins and Cryptocurrencies. The burgeoning rise of cryptocurrencies has ensured that there are more currencies on Earth than countries. What makes cryptocurrencies very alluring is their perceivable safety. “Consider that the odds of guessing a winning Powerball lottery number is 1 in 292 million. The probability of hacking a bitcoin private key, which uses 256-bit encryption, is a minuscule 1 in 2 to the power of 256, or 1 in over 115 quattuorvigintillion – a number with 78 digits. That’s equivalent to the odds of winning Powerball nine times in a row.”
Estonia seems to have grasped this concept perfectly well. Presenting itself to the world as “e-Estonia”, the country is a Digital Republic. The citizens, as the author points out can apply for benefits, source medical prescriptions, register their businesses, vote and even access nearly three thousand other digital services online. The author opines that from facilitating elections to funding development, blockchain technology may be the way forward.
As we are trying to tortuously untangle ourselves from the grip of an insidious pandemic, words like the “new Normal”, “social distancing etc.” are rewriting our everyday Lexicon and rewiring our attitudes and outlook. These unprecedented times are the ones where re-imagination, reinvention and repackaging would save the day for mankind. Yet more trends, perhaps for Mr. Guillen to seriously start mulling about a sequel!
(2030 How Today’s Biggest Trends will collide and reshape the future of everything by Mauro F. Guillen, a St Martin’s Press Publication published on the 25th of August 2020).
It wasn't until I was three-quarters of the way through 2030 that I could pin down why I felt so mixed about this book. The reason is simple enough. Mauro Guillen does a fantastic job of presenting possibilities but not so much in offering up predictive solutions. He says as much several times throughout the book, warning us that all predictions are merely educated guesswork.
Even while writing this review, I find myself toggling back and forth between 2 and 3 stars. Part of the problem is that the early chapters left such a bad first impression reading his take on immigration. Guillen correctly frames it as something the United States (and some other Europen countries) must embrace as their citizens have fewer babies. But he also misses the mark in understanding the subtleties of so-called immigration bias. He misses that people aren't generally concerned about immigration. They are concerned with illegal immigration and a growing unwillingness to assimilate.
This isn't the only left-leaning predictor in his book. Guillen loves many cringeworthy things. Cashless societies. Trackable everything (from driving patterns to gun control). Dismissal of private property (for most of the public). Decentralized private cryptocurrencies (that automatically grab up taxes, etc.) And the list goes on. About the only left-leaning idea he throttles down on is climate change, rightly recognizing we would be better off making small changes that have big impacts as opposed to some of the more aggressive changes pushed by politicians. It was also refreshing to see someone call out cities as being damaging to the environment.
Remove these biased bits and Guillen does a fine job lining up a litany of things on the horizon, which will be interesting to discover if you are not already familiar with them. These include the potential for 3-D printing, AI ethics, nanotech fashion, etc. These topics open up discussion and give you something to think about, talk about, and perhaps take action. For this reason, more than any other, 2030 is worth the read as long as you don't travel down the left-leaning rabbit holes.
Even while writing this review, I find myself toggling back and forth between 2 and 3 stars. Part of the problem is that the early chapters left such a bad first impression reading his take on immigration. Guillen correctly frames it as something the United States (and some other Europen countries) must embrace as their citizens have fewer babies. But he also misses the mark in understanding the subtleties of so-called immigration bias. He misses that people aren't generally concerned about immigration. They are concerned with illegal immigration and a growing unwillingness to assimilate.
This isn't the only left-leaning predictor in his book. Guillen loves many cringeworthy things. Cashless societies. Trackable everything (from driving patterns to gun control). Dismissal of private property (for most of the public). Decentralized private cryptocurrencies (that automatically grab up taxes, etc.) And the list goes on. About the only left-leaning idea he throttles down on is climate change, rightly recognizing we would be better off making small changes that have big impacts as opposed to some of the more aggressive changes pushed by politicians. It was also refreshing to see someone call out cities as being damaging to the environment.
Remove these biased bits and Guillen does a fine job lining up a litany of things on the horizon, which will be interesting to discover if you are not already familiar with them. These include the potential for 3-D printing, AI ethics, nanotech fashion, etc. These topics open up discussion and give you something to think about, talk about, and perhaps take action. For this reason, more than any other, 2030 is worth the read as long as you don't travel down the left-leaning rabbit holes.
This book is effective in highlighting what is happening in the world today and laying out the logic for the impact that this may have and why. Beyond simply discussing the trends the lens of lateral thinking, engaging with the confluence of the different trends, the collision, is a very important aspect of any discussion of the future. However at times these connections could have been explored in more depth, with a greater acknowledgement of the ambiguity inherent in such a task. The author also does a good job at using data to buttress the theories being advanced. However, the long lists of summary statistics was often easy to glaze over. It would have improved my reading experience if there was more depth taken to discussing some of the point rather than just a list of statistics, to add to the memorability and impact of the figures being used. There also could have been more discussion of the practical implications for how to respond to these disruptive forces. Overall this book provided an interesting perspective on where the world may be heading, providing a helpful focal point to consider many of the most significant current issues and ponder their effects on a global scale.
Really interesting macro view of the trends that potentially will shape the future.
1. Declining birth rates in developed countries -> Asia and Africa will rise
2. Women more educated and coming to power -> what becomes important as more leaders are now women
3. AI and ML
4. Millenials are the new baseline population and hence start driving the economy
- sharing economy (can't afford property, are more open to rent and share)
- jobs that are not permanent (task rabbit) so they have more time to do what they want
5. Climate change
1. Declining birth rates in developed countries -> Asia and Africa will rise
2. Women more educated and coming to power -> what becomes important as more leaders are now women
3. AI and ML
4. Millenials are the new baseline population and hence start driving the economy
- sharing economy (can't afford property, are more open to rent and share)
- jobs that are not permanent (task rabbit) so they have more time to do what they want
5. Climate change
I really really enjoyed this book. It was explained very concisely without missing out on clarifications. Mauro F. Guillén consistently presents pros and cons, arguments and counter-arguments through the global trends prediction he discusses. It was really fascinating to read.
Not that this matters to anyone (but to me, a literary student)..., I loved how Guillén used references to literary figures when embarking in new trends, hence, chapters. These quotes from famous novels and novelists - I think - illustrates the repetitive nature of mankind, a kind of behavioural pattern being juxtaposed.
In this sense, the literary references (Beauvoir, Wilde, Fitzgerald, Steinbeck, etc.) were illuminating in their relevance on the problems our society will still be facing in the next decade onward.
Furthermore, I like the constant use of "lateral thinking" of facing these problems highlighted in the book. In a way of approaching a sideway look instead of a linear/vertical outlook. Resulting, in new views and new solutions to age old problems. And therefore, opening our eyes by thinking laterally. While doing so, we will consistently work/create/innovate according to our global trends and find solutions when the same problems take on different turns.
Not that this matters to anyone (but to me, a literary student)..., I loved how Guillén used references to literary figures when embarking in new trends, hence, chapters. These quotes from famous novels and novelists - I think - illustrates the repetitive nature of mankind, a kind of behavioural pattern being juxtaposed.
In this sense, the literary references (Beauvoir, Wilde, Fitzgerald, Steinbeck, etc.) were illuminating in their relevance on the problems our society will still be facing in the next decade onward.
Furthermore, I like the constant use of "lateral thinking" of facing these problems highlighted in the book. In a way of approaching a sideway look instead of a linear/vertical outlook. Resulting, in new views and new solutions to age old problems. And therefore, opening our eyes by thinking laterally. While doing so, we will consistently work/create/innovate according to our global trends and find solutions when the same problems take on different turns.
hopeful
informative
slow-paced