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3.85 AVERAGE
3.85 AVERAGE
4.5 stars. Thorough, precise and accessible. Frightening yet inspiring. A great introduction to existential risk and longtermism.
challenging
hopeful
informative
inspiring
reflective
medium-paced
Eye opening in an accessible way, no degrees needed
The basic premise - that existential risk is important and we should do more to prevent it - is sound and difficult to argue with. This book is also well-written and gives a good introduction to a bunch of topics I hadn't thought much about.
I think we can be optimistic about our chances for success here. Ord gives nuclear winter as an example of a very present risk, but he also believes that nuclear annihilation of the human race is unlikely. Other risks, like asteroids hitting Earth, have actually spurred real action by governments that have reduced their odds. Ord is most worried about AI, which I'm sympathetic to, and pandemics, which is impossible not to be sympathetic to right now. It might be harder for people to imagine AI (and harder to prevent) than asteroid strikes, but it seems useful to try to increase awareness of them.
I think the book goes off the rails a bit at the end - getting into "whoaaa what if humans spread across the universe, man" - which I think will only be compelling for people who are already predisposed to be interested in this topic. But maybe that's the point, though.
I think we can be optimistic about our chances for success here. Ord gives nuclear winter as an example of a very present risk, but he also believes that nuclear annihilation of the human race is unlikely. Other risks, like asteroids hitting Earth, have actually spurred real action by governments that have reduced their odds. Ord is most worried about AI, which I'm sympathetic to, and pandemics, which is impossible not to be sympathetic to right now. It might be harder for people to imagine AI (and harder to prevent) than asteroid strikes, but it seems useful to try to increase awareness of them.
I think the book goes off the rails a bit at the end - getting into "whoaaa what if humans spread across the universe, man" - which I think will only be compelling for people who are already predisposed to be interested in this topic. But maybe that's the point, though.
Boring and the author seems to be full of himself
challenging
hopeful
informative
slow-paced
"What makes each of us special, so worthy of protection and celebration is something subtle about us, in the way that the matter of which we are comprised has been so delicately arranged as to allow us to think and love and create and dream."
I havent read a book in quite some time that has sparked such divine curiosity in topics you didnt realise existed (or the importance of) until now.
Somehow avoiding both over simplification and boring the reader with details - whilst dodging cherry picking, Toby Ord does an incredible job of explaining the complex realms of moral philosophy applied to the most pressing issues facing humanity today.
Some may find his use of notes frustrating (taking up almost 200 pages at the back of the book) but I found them rather endearing. The detail, explanations and rigorous research ensure he strikes that balance of providing clarity and understanding without removing detail.
This will be remaining close to hand for the next few months. I know I won't be able to resist picking it up as I work through the ideas in my head, or pursue some of his suggested further readings.
5/5 flawless, would reccomend.
"A key problem is that the truth of an idea is only one contributor to its memetic potential - its ability to spread and to stick. But the more that rigorous and rational debate is encouraged, the more truth contributes to memetic success. So encouraging a culture of such debate may be one way we can now help avoid this [unrecoverable dystopia]"
"A further [sic] reason some people avoid giving numbers is that they don't want to be pinned down, preferring the cloak of vagueness that comes with natural language. But I'd love to be pinned down, to lay my cards on the table and let others see if improvements can be made. It is only through such clarity and openness to being refuted that we make intellectual progress."
I havent read a book in quite some time that has sparked such divine curiosity in topics you didnt realise existed (or the importance of) until now.
Somehow avoiding both over simplification and boring the reader with details - whilst dodging cherry picking, Toby Ord does an incredible job of explaining the complex realms of moral philosophy applied to the most pressing issues facing humanity today.
Some may find his use of notes frustrating (taking up almost 200 pages at the back of the book) but I found them rather endearing. The detail, explanations and rigorous research ensure he strikes that balance of providing clarity and understanding without removing detail.
This will be remaining close to hand for the next few months. I know I won't be able to resist picking it up as I work through the ideas in my head, or pursue some of his suggested further readings.
5/5 flawless, would reccomend.
"A key problem is that the truth of an idea is only one contributor to its memetic potential - its ability to spread and to stick. But the more that rigorous and rational debate is encouraged, the more truth contributes to memetic success. So encouraging a culture of such debate may be one way we can now help avoid this [unrecoverable dystopia]"
"A further [sic] reason some people avoid giving numbers is that they don't want to be pinned down, preferring the cloak of vagueness that comes with natural language. But I'd love to be pinned down, to lay my cards on the table and let others see if improvements can be made. It is only through such clarity and openness to being refuted that we make intellectual progress."
slow-paced
An interesting reminder of how there are other ways to view "progress" than our short-term, what-will-make-money common viewpoint. Also an interesting reminder (all the way at the end of the book) of what we COULD achieve. But there are long stretches of this book where I was bored. I think if you've given any thought at all to this issue, then you won't be surprised by any of the risks he mentions, and sometimes the numbers he pulls out (esp. on the dangers of AI) seemed very pie in the sky. He often reminds us that it's hard to estimate risk, but boy, he'll do it anyway! I don't know...the book just seemed overlong for what it was trying to say, and even his proposed solutions at the end seemed of a depth suitable for an essay rather than a book.
There are a lot of ideas and bits from history that hit hard, but I feel like the delivery of this book was a bit drawn out and dragged a bit with the repetitiveness of statistics. I wish it would have had more applicational approaches to how we as individuals can help, but there are some resources at the end of the book, and after all, how can one dude tell us how to save humanity? At least it tells us where to focus our resources and energy for the most impact.
That said, it's an important read for humanity and sparked a lot of thoughts. Even though many of those thoughts are grim, it can take my four stars for simply spreading awareness about the importance of empathy for humanity, not just for near generations, but for humanity thousands of years or more from now.
Living in a world driven by consumerism and the constant desire to get the next dopamine hit to feed individual wants, the mentality of "Who cares if I won't be here to see it?" makes me wonder if we even stand a chance.
That said, it's an important read for humanity and sparked a lot of thoughts. Even though many of those thoughts are grim, it can take my four stars for simply spreading awareness about the importance of empathy for humanity, not just for near generations, but for humanity thousands of years or more from now.
Living in a world driven by consumerism and the constant desire to get the next dopamine hit to feed individual wants, the mentality of "Who cares if I won't be here to see it?" makes me wonder if we even stand a chance.
The questions tackled by this book are as grand as they get. What are the different existential risks that threaten humanity? How do we minimise them? Why this should be a priority cause especially this century?
Those, and many more, are explored by the author drawing from extensive and varied research (e.g. philosophy, ethics, statistics, science, technology, biology, astronomy etc.).
What is at stake? Well; everything.
Highly recommend reading. Feel free to skip the extensive endnotes unless something catches your interest. Book reads much more fluidly without the back and forth.
I have been interested in x-risks for a while now and this was an incredibly useful resource to inform my thinking and provide food for thought.
(BTW read the Three Body Problem trilogy for a great science fiction series covering similar topics)
Those, and many more, are explored by the author drawing from extensive and varied research (e.g. philosophy, ethics, statistics, science, technology, biology, astronomy etc.).
What is at stake? Well; everything.
Highly recommend reading. Feel free to skip the extensive endnotes unless something catches your interest. Book reads much more fluidly without the back and forth.
I have been interested in x-risks for a while now and this was an incredibly useful resource to inform my thinking and provide food for thought.
(BTW read the Three Body Problem trilogy for a great science fiction series covering similar topics)
Good overview of issues, and succeeds in reigning in some alarmism in what could easily have been a hopeless alarmist book, where exaggerations are made to elevate the material. Prescient about the dangers of pandemics and gain of function research. Has some good sections on the varying levels of existential risk but could have used more on that subject, as most of these individual parts - climate change, AI, pandemics, nuclear wars, and so on - are better covered in other books.