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mschlat 's review for:
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
One of the main arguments in Taleb's work is the difference between what he calls Mediocristan and Extremistan. Mediocristan is where you see variations that have some physical limitation (for example, height or weight). No one person has a height or weight that is magnitudes of difference from somewhere else. Extremistan is where you do see those types of differences (for example, net worth). In Mediocristan, you have a collection of statistical tools (e.g., standard deviation, hypothesis testing) that work well. Taleb is arguing, however, that those tools are totally inappropriate for variables in Extremistan and, in fact, are harmful because they radically underestimate the harm that extreme events can cause. To some extent, the book is a testimonial to power laws over Gaussian variation.
But, Taleb is arguing more than mathematics --- he's making a epistemological argument that we cannot foresee or forecast the truly rare events (Black Swans) that have disproportionate effects on our lives. Moreover, he is claiming that the vast majority of humans do not comprehend this limit on their knowledge (and thus act in ways that make them more vulnerable to extreme events).
It's an impassioned set of arguments, and Taleb appears to have the mathematical and philosophical chops to be able to support it. But having read it throughly, I'm still not sure I can endorse it as fully as he does. When someone comes around claiming that a radical rethink is needed, I tend to react more conservatively and skeptically.
As a read, it's sometimes sloggy, and I am guessing that some portions will have the most interest to the same academic professions Taleb denigrates. But, overall, it was a provoking work that gave me a better sense of limitations to knowledge.
But, Taleb is arguing more than mathematics --- he's making a epistemological argument that we cannot foresee or forecast the truly rare events (Black Swans) that have disproportionate effects on our lives. Moreover, he is claiming that the vast majority of humans do not comprehend this limit on their knowledge (and thus act in ways that make them more vulnerable to extreme events).
It's an impassioned set of arguments, and Taleb appears to have the mathematical and philosophical chops to be able to support it. But having read it throughly, I'm still not sure I can endorse it as fully as he does. When someone comes around claiming that a radical rethink is needed, I tend to react more conservatively and skeptically.
As a read, it's sometimes sloggy, and I am guessing that some portions will have the most interest to the same academic professions Taleb denigrates. But, overall, it was a provoking work that gave me a better sense of limitations to knowledge.