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daeus 's review for:
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Aggressive and arrogant, but also brilliant and practical. Definitely see why it was so influential (especially since it came out in 2007, right before the crash of 08).
Quotes
- "We do not spontaneously learn that we don't learn that we don't learn."
- "Reality provides such forced revisions of beliefs at quite a high frequency."
- "Mistaking a niiave observation of the past as something definitive or representative of the future is our one and only cause of our inability to understand the black swan." Ex. A turkey farm observing every day of the year of data before Thanksgiving.
- "We cannot manufactor more information than the past can deliver...we just don't know how much information there is in the past."
- "... principle aim is to not be a sucker in things that matter...all I care about is making a decision without being the turkey."
- 'how do you cross the street with so much risk consciousness? I'm just trying to avoid crossing the street blindfolded.'
- "We tend to use knowledge as therapy."
- "True, our knowledge does grow, but it's threatened by greater increases in confidence."
- "Looking busy can help you claim responsibility for the results in a random environment. The appearance of busyness reinforces the perception of causality, of the link between results and ones roles in them."
- "I'll never get to know the unknown.... however, I can always guess how it can affect me, and I should base my decisions around that..... I don't know the odds of an earthquake, but I can imagine how San Francisco might be affected by one."
- 'an average human would have to be half male and have female.'
- "'I had to invent my predecessors so people take me seriously' he once told me. And he used the credibility of big guns as a rhetorical device. One can always ferret out predecessors for any thought.... the brand name goes to the one who connects the dots, not the one who makes a casual observation... in the end it's those who derive consequences and seize the importance of the ideas, seeing their real value, who win the day."
- "Ideas come and go, stories stay."
Quotes
- "We do not spontaneously learn that we don't learn that we don't learn."
- "Reality provides such forced revisions of beliefs at quite a high frequency."
- "Mistaking a niiave observation of the past as something definitive or representative of the future is our one and only cause of our inability to understand the black swan." Ex. A turkey farm observing every day of the year of data before Thanksgiving.
- "We cannot manufactor more information than the past can deliver...we just don't know how much information there is in the past."
- "... principle aim is to not be a sucker in things that matter...all I care about is making a decision without being the turkey."
- 'how do you cross the street with so much risk consciousness? I'm just trying to avoid crossing the street blindfolded.'
- "We tend to use knowledge as therapy."
- "True, our knowledge does grow, but it's threatened by greater increases in confidence."
- "Looking busy can help you claim responsibility for the results in a random environment. The appearance of busyness reinforces the perception of causality, of the link between results and ones roles in them."
- "I'll never get to know the unknown.... however, I can always guess how it can affect me, and I should base my decisions around that..... I don't know the odds of an earthquake, but I can imagine how San Francisco might be affected by one."
- 'an average human would have to be half male and have female.'
- "'I had to invent my predecessors so people take me seriously' he once told me. And he used the credibility of big guns as a rhetorical device. One can always ferret out predecessors for any thought.... the brand name goes to the one who connects the dots, not the one who makes a casual observation... in the end it's those who derive consequences and seize the importance of the ideas, seeing their real value, who win the day."
- "Ideas come and go, stories stay."