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A review by pashtet31
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock
5.0
Harry Truman famously said
: Give me a one-handed economist! All my economics say, ''On the one hand? on the other.''
Philip Tetlock combines three major findings from different areas of research:
1) People don't like experts who are context specific and could not provide us with clear simple answers regarding complex phenomena in a probabilistic world. People don't like if an expert sounds not 100% confident. They reason, that confidence represents skills.
2) Experts who employ publicly acceptable role of hedgehogs (ideologically narrow-minded) and/or express ideas with 100% certainty are wrong on most things most of the time. General public is fooled by hindsight bias (on the part of experts) and lack of accountability.
3) We live in the nonlinear complex probabilistic world, thus, we need to shape our thinking accordingly. Those who do it ("foxes" comparing to "hedgehogs" can think non-simplistically) become much better experts in their own field and better forecasters in general.
I guess, nobody with sufficient IQ or relevant experience will find any new and surprising ideas in this book. However, the story is interesting in itself and many Tetlock's arguments and examples can be borrowed for further discussions with real people in the real life settings.
: Give me a one-handed economist! All my economics say, ''On the one hand? on the other.''
Philip Tetlock combines three major findings from different areas of research:
1) People don't like experts who are context specific and could not provide us with clear simple answers regarding complex phenomena in a probabilistic world. People don't like if an expert sounds not 100% confident. They reason, that confidence represents skills.
2) Experts who employ publicly acceptable role of hedgehogs (ideologically narrow-minded) and/or express ideas with 100% certainty are wrong on most things most of the time. General public is fooled by hindsight bias (on the part of experts) and lack of accountability.
3) We live in the nonlinear complex probabilistic world, thus, we need to shape our thinking accordingly. Those who do it ("foxes" comparing to "hedgehogs" can think non-simplistically) become much better experts in their own field and better forecasters in general.
I guess, nobody with sufficient IQ or relevant experience will find any new and surprising ideas in this book. However, the story is interesting in itself and many Tetlock's arguments and examples can be borrowed for further discussions with real people in the real life settings.