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A review by daniell
Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won by L. Jon Wertheim, Tobias Moskowitz
3.0
Write a review of Scorecasting? That’s easy, phrase it as a Q and A and it becomes a very small book. Obviously this also omits the arguments for the results given, really omitting the reason to read the book, but this also gives a nice digest and a portal to further review. It also proceeds in the subject-order the book itself imposes.These questions and answers are for the most part the substance of a chapter-section condensed to a few lines. Such a summary is entirely inadequate, yes, but also fascinating in that it represents so many “ah ha!” moments that I can’t help but read some of these with a contented smirk. So without further ado,
Why do officials miss calls (incorrect noncalls) in favor of home teams?
Fans support, ticket sales, overall league revenue.
Why do coaches tend to be conservative when studies show they could profit from more risks?
Pressure to conform to convention, fact that odd decisions with poor results garner particular criticism.
Why do some cities have successful _____and unsuccessful _____ teams?
The odds of a team of x skill decrease as the playing field (ha!) incorporates more leveling measures: fewer playoff spots, longer playoff series, longer seasons, longer playoffs, salary capping measures.
Why is Tiger Woods human?
He putts better for par than for birdie: he shares our frame, he participates in our dust.
Why are pitchers human?
You see fewer fastballs on 3-2 counts that started as an 0-2 than when facing the same 3-2, having got there from a 3-0 count.
Why are football coaches human?
“Faced with fourth and goal from the one-yard line, NFL teams go for it 67 percent of the time if they started first and goal from the ten-yard line but only 59 percent of the time if they started first and goal from the ten-yard line” (74).
Why are NBA players human?
Facing a loss (game within fewer than five points) starting the fourth quarter, if a team was up by more than fifteen points before that, they will start to play more aggressively than a team in the same situation who did not have a lead.
Does defense particularly win championships, that is, more so than offense?
Statistically, no.
Are all blocked shots created equally?
No. If a ball is swatted to the player or a teammate it is like way more valuable than if hit out of bounds or back to the opposing player. Blocked shots vary along these lines such that the stat itself is not too telling.
Should .300 hitters who hit the number exactly really be seen as .300 hitters?
The trend is for there to be many more .300 hitters than .299 hitters due to the way batters will be replaced when they hit their number or kept in when they have yet to reach their goal; the same idea applies to 30 HR or 100 RBI seasons.
Is this seen elsewhere?
Absolutely. Firms tend to report many more one-cent earnings surprises in favor of growth than of decline. Books get fudged and angled the right way to make things look slightly better than they would be without tweaking unrelated to performance. Nobody wants a letdown or someone who almost made it.
Is it good to see black head coaches failing in the NFL?
Indeed, it means that one need not anymore be a stellar coach before gaining the helm of a team. If those who would fail are being given a chance, they did not need to overcome race with skill.
Why home advantage?
Players play the same home and away, but officials officiate in favor of a crowd.
Is there an “I” in team?
More than 90 percent of NBA titles belong to teams with a superstar, NHL and soccer teams rarely thrive without an excellent keeper, and the effect of one player is diminished in the MLB. Individuals count to some degree more than total egalitarianism.
Do teams overvalue high draft picks?
College picks and resulting fates are very difficult to predict, and when the Cowboys in the 90s realized this their valuation of draft picks brought them great success and, as their executives moved to other teams, many imitators.
Are NFL overtimes fair?
Nope, they really depend on the coin toss. If you get it you stand to win 61% of the time, over 3:2 odds.
Why are Dominican MLB players more likely to use steroids?
Because they work, and more Dominicans find themselves in a position where the pressure to hit it big is great and where they will do anything to gain an edge.
Does calling a timeout to “ice” a player really work?
No.
Can people get “hot hands” and “go on a streak”?
No, the best indicator of someone’s success at athletic activity X is their career performance, not their single-season, single game, single quarter, or last minute of performance.
When I hear that someone has done athletic feat X “the last four of five times,” is this entirely correct?
Not really, because if it were not four of six they would say “five of the last six.” “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”—Mark Twain.
Are the Chicago Cubs particularly cursed?
No, they merely have a highly loyal fan base who has bonded to the idea of a lovable loser. Given the inelasticity of demand, the franchise has comparatively lesser motivation to sacrifice revenue for talent. The funny part: Wrigley Field sells the third-cheapest beer in the MLB.
Why do officials miss calls (incorrect noncalls) in favor of home teams?
Fans support, ticket sales, overall league revenue.
Why do coaches tend to be conservative when studies show they could profit from more risks?
Pressure to conform to convention, fact that odd decisions with poor results garner particular criticism.
Why do some cities have successful _____and unsuccessful _____ teams?
The odds of a team of x skill decrease as the playing field (ha!) incorporates more leveling measures: fewer playoff spots, longer playoff series, longer seasons, longer playoffs, salary capping measures.
Why is Tiger Woods human?
He putts better for par than for birdie: he shares our frame, he participates in our dust.
Why are pitchers human?
You see fewer fastballs on 3-2 counts that started as an 0-2 than when facing the same 3-2, having got there from a 3-0 count.
Why are football coaches human?
“Faced with fourth and goal from the one-yard line, NFL teams go for it 67 percent of the time if they started first and goal from the ten-yard line but only 59 percent of the time if they started first and goal from the ten-yard line” (74).
Why are NBA players human?
Facing a loss (game within fewer than five points) starting the fourth quarter, if a team was up by more than fifteen points before that, they will start to play more aggressively than a team in the same situation who did not have a lead.
Does defense particularly win championships, that is, more so than offense?
Statistically, no.
Are all blocked shots created equally?
No. If a ball is swatted to the player or a teammate it is like way more valuable than if hit out of bounds or back to the opposing player. Blocked shots vary along these lines such that the stat itself is not too telling.
Should .300 hitters who hit the number exactly really be seen as .300 hitters?
The trend is for there to be many more .300 hitters than .299 hitters due to the way batters will be replaced when they hit their number or kept in when they have yet to reach their goal; the same idea applies to 30 HR or 100 RBI seasons.
Is this seen elsewhere?
Absolutely. Firms tend to report many more one-cent earnings surprises in favor of growth than of decline. Books get fudged and angled the right way to make things look slightly better than they would be without tweaking unrelated to performance. Nobody wants a letdown or someone who almost made it.
Is it good to see black head coaches failing in the NFL?
Indeed, it means that one need not anymore be a stellar coach before gaining the helm of a team. If those who would fail are being given a chance, they did not need to overcome race with skill.
Why home advantage?
Players play the same home and away, but officials officiate in favor of a crowd.
Is there an “I” in team?
More than 90 percent of NBA titles belong to teams with a superstar, NHL and soccer teams rarely thrive without an excellent keeper, and the effect of one player is diminished in the MLB. Individuals count to some degree more than total egalitarianism.
Do teams overvalue high draft picks?
College picks and resulting fates are very difficult to predict, and when the Cowboys in the 90s realized this their valuation of draft picks brought them great success and, as their executives moved to other teams, many imitators.
Are NFL overtimes fair?
Nope, they really depend on the coin toss. If you get it you stand to win 61% of the time, over 3:2 odds.
Why are Dominican MLB players more likely to use steroids?
Because they work, and more Dominicans find themselves in a position where the pressure to hit it big is great and where they will do anything to gain an edge.
Does calling a timeout to “ice” a player really work?
No.
Can people get “hot hands” and “go on a streak”?
No, the best indicator of someone’s success at athletic activity X is their career performance, not their single-season, single game, single quarter, or last minute of performance.
When I hear that someone has done athletic feat X “the last four of five times,” is this entirely correct?
Not really, because if it were not four of six they would say “five of the last six.” “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”—Mark Twain.
Are the Chicago Cubs particularly cursed?
No, they merely have a highly loyal fan base who has bonded to the idea of a lovable loser. Given the inelasticity of demand, the franchise has comparatively lesser motivation to sacrifice revenue for talent. The funny part: Wrigley Field sells the third-cheapest beer in the MLB.