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A review by desertjarhead505
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
5.0
This is a refreshing presentation of a sometimes-neglected aspect of critical thinking, that of making sure our understanding of situations and our plans include allowance for unexpected, possibly unprecedented, events with huge impacts.
These events are jumbo-sized examples of what military planners tend to call "friction" (half of the pair of conditions that destroy any attempt at complete control of events in war (the other half is "fog", i.e. the information we need but don't have.)
The author eloquently makes the case that it's better to plan in general terms but stay alert and flexible in the face of possible change, rather than planning in minute detail and then using centralized-authority micromanagement to carry out the plan. As he points out, the most influential events of the last couple of hundred years (and in most people's lives) are not planned and most often not seen coming.
If I could, I'd make this required reading for all leaders and planners in every sector of our society and economy.
These events are jumbo-sized examples of what military planners tend to call "friction" (half of the pair of conditions that destroy any attempt at complete control of events in war (the other half is "fog", i.e. the information we need but don't have.)
The author eloquently makes the case that it's better to plan in general terms but stay alert and flexible in the face of possible change, rather than planning in minute detail and then using centralized-authority micromanagement to carry out the plan. As he points out, the most influential events of the last couple of hundred years (and in most people's lives) are not planned and most often not seen coming.
If I could, I'd make this required reading for all leaders and planners in every sector of our society and economy.