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A review by thejdizzler
How the World Really Works: A Scientist's Guide to Our Past, Present and Future by Vaclav Smil
2.0
This was an extremely frustrating book. For someone who claims that we need to have humility when thinking about the future, Vaclav Smil comes across as arrogant and surprisingly poorly informed. Where do I even start...
1). Decarbonization. While Smil is correct that we can't decarbonize as fast as green pundits claim, he also makes predictions for increasing carbonization across the global south. This will prove to be impossible, because of the realities of peak oil (which happened in 2018) and the economics of increasingly expensive energy extraction. Smil mentions this but somehow doesn't put two and two together? In the early days of 2022, these predictions have not aged well.
2). Nuclear. Nuclear is no more a solution to our energy issues than fossil fuels. It will be depleted in the next 100 years, and if we scale up usage, significantly faster. There are also significant issues with waste, and the general problem of electrification. Smil acknowledges all of these facts, but advocates for nuclear anyway?
3). Veganism. This one was the most annoying to me. Smil claims plant-based diets are not necessarily more healthy by looking at life expectancy in Spain and Japan and contrasting their diets, claiming that meat consumption tracks lifespan increases. He fails to take into account time lag (people eating meat rich diets now will only become sick later in life), and throws out a ton of great studies (7th day adventists, china study) because he doesn't like nutrition research. Talk about arrogance. Oh and get this: calls for more milk consumption in Africa. Despite the fact that most of the continent is lactose intolerant. And adult milk consumption is unnatural and unhealthy. What bullshit.
4). Organic Agriculture: Smil claims that we can't get enough nitrogen from organic sources to grow adequate food to support our population. This is not true. Ecology action ( John Jevons How to Grow more vegetables) has shown that we can support one person on 4,000 square feet on a vegan diet, which is about 30 people per hectare. Current global needs are 5 people per hectare. And this is without humane (specifically urine) recycling. Again: ignorance.
5). Dismissal of catastrophists: While Smil is again correct that catastrophists have been repeatedly wrong, he fails to adequately dismiss their actual arguments (rather just relying on dismissing their claimed end dates). How will we deal with key mineral (metals and fossil fuel) shortages, as well as degradation of farmland and natural waste sinks like forests and wetlands? While I agree the doomers are incorrect, Smil's emphasis on business as usual fails to take into account the very real shortages in material goods and energy that we are facing, and will face.
1). Decarbonization. While Smil is correct that we can't decarbonize as fast as green pundits claim, he also makes predictions for increasing carbonization across the global south. This will prove to be impossible, because of the realities of peak oil (which happened in 2018) and the economics of increasingly expensive energy extraction. Smil mentions this but somehow doesn't put two and two together? In the early days of 2022, these predictions have not aged well.
2). Nuclear. Nuclear is no more a solution to our energy issues than fossil fuels. It will be depleted in the next 100 years, and if we scale up usage, significantly faster. There are also significant issues with waste, and the general problem of electrification. Smil acknowledges all of these facts, but advocates for nuclear anyway?
3). Veganism. This one was the most annoying to me. Smil claims plant-based diets are not necessarily more healthy by looking at life expectancy in Spain and Japan and contrasting their diets, claiming that meat consumption tracks lifespan increases. He fails to take into account time lag (people eating meat rich diets now will only become sick later in life), and throws out a ton of great studies (7th day adventists, china study) because he doesn't like nutrition research. Talk about arrogance. Oh and get this: calls for more milk consumption in Africa. Despite the fact that most of the continent is lactose intolerant. And adult milk consumption is unnatural and unhealthy. What bullshit.
4). Organic Agriculture: Smil claims that we can't get enough nitrogen from organic sources to grow adequate food to support our population. This is not true. Ecology action ( John Jevons How to Grow more vegetables) has shown that we can support one person on 4,000 square feet on a vegan diet, which is about 30 people per hectare. Current global needs are 5 people per hectare. And this is without humane (specifically urine) recycling. Again: ignorance.
5). Dismissal of catastrophists: While Smil is again correct that catastrophists have been repeatedly wrong, he fails to adequately dismiss their actual arguments (rather just relying on dismissing their claimed end dates). How will we deal with key mineral (metals and fossil fuel) shortages, as well as degradation of farmland and natural waste sinks like forests and wetlands? While I agree the doomers are incorrect, Smil's emphasis on business as usual fails to take into account the very real shortages in material goods and energy that we are facing, and will face.