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A review by jorisvanmens
The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail by Ray Dalio
5.0
This book outlines the rise and fall of empires in the last 500 years, primarily various Chinese empires, the Dutch, English, US and modern Europe. It judges where in their life cycle empires / nations are by looking at factors relating to the economy, innovation, debt & currency systems, civil disorder and wars of various kinds (trade wars, capital wars, military wars, etc.) It argues that all empires go through roughly the same arc: starting with a new world order, a new leading empire experiences peace and rapid progress, a stable currency used globally and low debt. It ends in a situation of over-indebtedness and strife of many kinds, at which point a new empire takes over (generally violently) and a new world order is established.
The book argues that the US, the current dominant "empire", is in its late stages, with China on the brink of becoming the new largest global power. It points to signals such as US debt, US civil unrest and political disorder, US trade wars with China, etc. though (on the upside) also still a strong US economy, military, dollar reserve currency, educated population and technological excellence. However with China improving rapidly in almost all dimensions (excluding perhaps reserve currency status of the renminbi), it is set to take over in the next decade or so.
I very much enjoyed how the book gives structure (numerical - lots of graphs!) to such a complex topic, providing a great analytical glimpse into the history of empires and what it means for our current geopolitical situation. The book is surprisingly kind on China (perhaps to allow Ray Dalio to do business there), I'd say to a fault, but it makes for a refreshing, provocative view.
The book argues that the US, the current dominant "empire", is in its late stages, with China on the brink of becoming the new largest global power. It points to signals such as US debt, US civil unrest and political disorder, US trade wars with China, etc. though (on the upside) also still a strong US economy, military, dollar reserve currency, educated population and technological excellence. However with China improving rapidly in almost all dimensions (excluding perhaps reserve currency status of the renminbi), it is set to take over in the next decade or so.
I very much enjoyed how the book gives structure (numerical - lots of graphs!) to such a complex topic, providing a great analytical glimpse into the history of empires and what it means for our current geopolitical situation. The book is surprisingly kind on China (perhaps to allow Ray Dalio to do business there), I'd say to a fault, but it makes for a refreshing, provocative view.