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While we know that history has cycles, useful theories on what drives these cycles have been lacking. Peter Turchin’s structural-demographic theory (SDT) is the first that I have encountered that is reasonably parsimonious, matches actual data and provides predictive power. ‘Ages of Discord’ is an excellent entry into this theory. It uses the history of the United States as a very convincing case study, to both show how the theory applies to historical events and to give predictions for how these cycles will play out going forward. Fundamentally, SDT attempts to understand how structural and demographic measures drive social well-being and violence. The measures include labor supply and demand, elite overproduction and state fiscal stability and policy.
Turchin shows that the theory works quite well in relation to US data from the revolutionary war to 2010. His findings indicate two ages of discord, one lasting from the 1840s until the 1930s with peaks of violence during the Civil War and the early 20th century. The second age of discord is now. It started in the later decades of the 20th century and is set to hit a peak in the 2020s. Interestingly, Turchin stated his 2020s prediction around 2010, before the publication of this book. All indications point to Turchin’s prediction being correct. Political polarization and violence are high now, and may get higher.
If you want to understand what drives this increasing societal rift, this is the book for you. We tend to blame polarizing figures for this state of affairs (hello recent politics). But SDT indicates that these figures are more symptom than cause. This is hopeful, because the structural and demographic drivers of discord are subject to corrections based in policy and culture. Knowing about and understanding SDT may be a way for us to counter-act the worst possibilities of discord. Reading this book is the first step.
Turchin shows that the theory works quite well in relation to US data from the revolutionary war to 2010. His findings indicate two ages of discord, one lasting from the 1840s until the 1930s with peaks of violence during the Civil War and the early 20th century. The second age of discord is now. It started in the later decades of the 20th century and is set to hit a peak in the 2020s. Interestingly, Turchin stated his 2020s prediction around 2010, before the publication of this book. All indications point to Turchin’s prediction being correct. Political polarization and violence are high now, and may get higher.
If you want to understand what drives this increasing societal rift, this is the book for you. We tend to blame polarizing figures for this state of affairs (hello recent politics). But SDT indicates that these figures are more symptom than cause. This is hopeful, because the structural and demographic drivers of discord are subject to corrections based in policy and culture. Knowing about and understanding SDT may be a way for us to counter-act the worst possibilities of discord. Reading this book is the first step.