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A review by wintermute47
The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States by Jeffrey Lewis
4.0
The other day I read a Tom Clancy novel where misguided American policy provokes an Asian nation to attack the US with the goal of ensuring their own national survival. Acknowledging that the book was 23 years old, it was still pretty laughable, because the sheer implausibility of the concept made it hard to swallow the blank-faced seriousness with which the story proceeded.
Not so, here. This book doesn't so much extrapolate currents trends forward to imagine what the future might look like as speculate how things which are happening in the world right now could align differently with catastrophic effect. No part of this account felt at all exaggerated or far-fetched (though I did enjoy a moment where former-president Trump insists that the committee report mention the score of his golf game on the day of the nuclear attack). The events of this book could unfold now, or a year from now, or they could have happened a year ago. As long as there's a mentally-deranged toddler in the White House, the threat remains.
There's one very understated moment in the book that I think is worth amplifying. When the first word of the nuclear attack comes, the president calls for the military attache carrying the nuclear launch codes. The attache, believing the president is planning to order a nuclear strike on both North Korea and China, refuses and removes himself and the nuclear launch capability from the president's hands. In this narrative, that may be the only reason that a nuclear attack doesn't become a fully nuclear World War III. So the question every American should ask is: how confident are you that a career military officer, given an irrational order to launch nuclear weapons, will break with all his training and refuse? How comfortable are you with Donald Trump in the White House, in light of that?
[Edited to add on 1/23/2018]
On a second read, possibly the least believable thing in this entire book is the bit where after learning of a nuclear attack on DC and New York City, Donald Trump's immediate reaction is concern about where his family is (though I note that even in this fictional account, no worries are expressed for either Eric or Donald, Jr.).
Not so, here. This book doesn't so much extrapolate currents trends forward to imagine what the future might look like as speculate how things which are happening in the world right now could align differently with catastrophic effect. No part of this account felt at all exaggerated or far-fetched (though I did enjoy a moment where former-president Trump insists that the committee report mention the score of his golf game on the day of the nuclear attack). The events of this book could unfold now, or a year from now, or they could have happened a year ago. As long as there's a mentally-deranged toddler in the White House, the threat remains.
There's one very understated moment in the book that I think is worth amplifying. When the first word of the nuclear attack comes, the president calls for the military attache carrying the nuclear launch codes. The attache, believing the president is planning to order a nuclear strike on both North Korea and China, refuses and removes himself and the nuclear launch capability from the president's hands. In this narrative, that may be the only reason that a nuclear attack doesn't become a fully nuclear World War III. So the question every American should ask is: how confident are you that a career military officer, given an irrational order to launch nuclear weapons, will break with all his training and refuse? How comfortable are you with Donald Trump in the White House, in light of that?
[Edited to add on 1/23/2018]
On a second read, possibly the least believable thing in this entire book is the bit where after learning of a nuclear attack on DC and New York City, Donald Trump's immediate reaction is concern about where his family is (though I note that even in this fictional account, no worries are expressed for either Eric or Donald, Jr.).