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cathy718 's review for:
The Premonition: A Pandemic Story
by Michael Lewis
Who would have thought that "A Pandemic Story" from the non-fiction department could be such a page turner? Well, Michael Lewis thought it, and anyone who has read other works by him should have thought it, too. After all, this is the guy who wrote a riveting book about measuring the right things (with Moneyball.)
I reserve 5 star reviews for books that change me in some way, change my thinking, or challenge my assumptions, even my self-identity. Premonition does all those things.
By its nature, a pathogen can only be stopped if those charged with stopping it are able to make decisions before there is any data to back them up. Those decision makers could be right, and ever after lauded as heroes. Or they might be wrong, in which case they become the goats, perhaps scapegoats. The upshot is that leaders must have the courage of their convictions. Even - and this is the really hard part - the courage to trust their instincts (premonitions) and take action before they can explain why. Yikes.
This book challenged my strongly-held belief that the pandemic could have been avoided if someone else, anyone else, had been president. Probably that is still true with regard to its worst effects, its super high numbers, the stuff that caused America to lose more people per capita than any other country. Truly disastrous decisions did come out of the Trump White House and Trump CDC that would not have been made had George Bush or Barack Obama or Hilary Clinton been president. His disdain for expertise of any kind empowered the peddlers of disinformation to overrule experts. But what Lewis reveals is that Bush or Obama or Clinton might well have exacerbated a whole different problem: the paralysis of analysis.
Decision making in the absence of data takes courage, and our systems are not designed to promote that. While state and local public health officials are waiting on guidance from the CDC, the CDC is working to develop more information to support their guidance writing. The flaw in "we will make decisions based on science" is that science is too slow in a pandemic. The carefully-crafted reputation the CDC had for being correct came at the cost of being speedy. Rather than being the Centers for Disease Control, the author notes, it might more accurately be called The Centers for Disease Observation and Reporting. With a rapidly-spreading virus, not acting until we are certain has deadly consequences. If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.
The lead characters in Premonition took action based on their hunches. Charity Dean had a history of closing things down before she could prove a pathogen could spread if she didn't. Carter Mecher didn't know if the reproductive rate of the virus was 2 or 3 but he could still go forward with calculations that demonstrated the utility of interventions like distancing and masks. But who wants to take responsibility for a decision like closing the schools before we can prove the virus spreads in schools? No one in our government. And that is a problem.
Michael Lewis doesn't mean to lead people to the same conclusions he has. He means to find and present stories that inform the reader's own thinking so that we take from it what we will. So, what does it profit me to have read this book, to have met these characters? What could be different about me now? It's the courage bit. It's in acting according to what I believe is right, based on instinct or based on data. The courage to live with the consequences of my decisions, no matter whether I am judged right or wrong by others afterwards. That's the inspirational part. That's my takeaway. Thank you, Mr. Lewis. What a gift!
I reserve 5 star reviews for books that change me in some way, change my thinking, or challenge my assumptions, even my self-identity. Premonition does all those things.
By its nature, a pathogen can only be stopped if those charged with stopping it are able to make decisions before there is any data to back them up. Those decision makers could be right, and ever after lauded as heroes. Or they might be wrong, in which case they become the goats, perhaps scapegoats. The upshot is that leaders must have the courage of their convictions. Even - and this is the really hard part - the courage to trust their instincts (premonitions) and take action before they can explain why. Yikes.
This book challenged my strongly-held belief that the pandemic could have been avoided if someone else, anyone else, had been president. Probably that is still true with regard to its worst effects, its super high numbers, the stuff that caused America to lose more people per capita than any other country. Truly disastrous decisions did come out of the Trump White House and Trump CDC that would not have been made had George Bush or Barack Obama or Hilary Clinton been president. His disdain for expertise of any kind empowered the peddlers of disinformation to overrule experts. But what Lewis reveals is that Bush or Obama or Clinton might well have exacerbated a whole different problem: the paralysis of analysis.
Decision making in the absence of data takes courage, and our systems are not designed to promote that. While state and local public health officials are waiting on guidance from the CDC, the CDC is working to develop more information to support their guidance writing. The flaw in "we will make decisions based on science" is that science is too slow in a pandemic. The carefully-crafted reputation the CDC had for being correct came at the cost of being speedy. Rather than being the Centers for Disease Control, the author notes, it might more accurately be called The Centers for Disease Observation and Reporting. With a rapidly-spreading virus, not acting until we are certain has deadly consequences. If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.
The lead characters in Premonition took action based on their hunches. Charity Dean had a history of closing things down before she could prove a pathogen could spread if she didn't. Carter Mecher didn't know if the reproductive rate of the virus was 2 or 3 but he could still go forward with calculations that demonstrated the utility of interventions like distancing and masks. But who wants to take responsibility for a decision like closing the schools before we can prove the virus spreads in schools? No one in our government. And that is a problem.
Michael Lewis doesn't mean to lead people to the same conclusions he has. He means to find and present stories that inform the reader's own thinking so that we take from it what we will. So, what does it profit me to have read this book, to have met these characters? What could be different about me now? It's the courage bit. It's in acting according to what I believe is right, based on instinct or based on data. The courage to live with the consequences of my decisions, no matter whether I am judged right or wrong by others afterwards. That's the inspirational part. That's my takeaway. Thank you, Mr. Lewis. What a gift!