Scan barcode
A review by dda9
Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? by Graham Allison
3.0
Graham Allison's "Destined for War" is a thought provoking book if you have any interest in international relations or the future of America (or China). I enjoyed it from beginning to end.
For those who don't know, Thucydides's Trap is named after the Greek historian Thucydides's description of the Peloponnesian War and the dynamics that led up to it. Sparta, the ruling power in Greece at the time, was threatened by the rise of Athens. Athens felt that Sparta was trying to keep it down and determined to destroy it. Neither city wanted war, but they ended up in an enormously destructive war anyway.
Allison explores the question of whether or not the US and China can avoid this same dynamic. He describes the phenomenon of Thucydides's Trap, the recent history, current situations, and likely futures of the United States and China. He also goes through a collection of historical examples, some of which feature countries that successfully managed their rivalries without war, and many more that ended up in bloody conflict. He also discusses several hypothetical scenarios that could lead the US into a war with China.
Allison then talks about weaknesses in the current US approach to dealing with China and some possible--and more coherent--alternative approaches to dealing with Beijing. Allison does a great job presenting these option without any discernible bias, despite the various approaches running the gamut from a conciliatory approach where the US abandons Taiwan and South Korea, to a full on Cold-War-style containment policy where the US would actively try to subvert the Chinese Communist Party.
Although Allison's book is engaging and thought provoking, it is not without substantial weaknesses. The biggest weakness is that his analysis of China is simplistic and leans in China's favor. He treats China's continued rise and eclipsing of the United States as a foregone conclusion, despite some very real and difficult challenges in China's future. Mounting debt, ethnic unrest, and declining economic growth are a few of these.
His analysis of China is also nearly completely dependent on a single source - Lee Kuan Yew, the first Prime Minister of Singapore. Allison treat Lee Kuan Yew as if he were the only opinion worth hearing and definitely doesn't explore any alternative views on China's nature or future.
Although the analysis of China could be much more sophisticated or nuanced, this isn't a book about China, but instead focuses on the dynamics between rising and established powers, so I don't think this is a huge detraction. "Destined for War" is well worth a read, and the issues it discusses are worth much more thought.
For those who don't know, Thucydides's Trap is named after the Greek historian Thucydides's description of the Peloponnesian War and the dynamics that led up to it. Sparta, the ruling power in Greece at the time, was threatened by the rise of Athens. Athens felt that Sparta was trying to keep it down and determined to destroy it. Neither city wanted war, but they ended up in an enormously destructive war anyway.
Allison explores the question of whether or not the US and China can avoid this same dynamic. He describes the phenomenon of Thucydides's Trap, the recent history, current situations, and likely futures of the United States and China. He also goes through a collection of historical examples, some of which feature countries that successfully managed their rivalries without war, and many more that ended up in bloody conflict. He also discusses several hypothetical scenarios that could lead the US into a war with China.
Allison then talks about weaknesses in the current US approach to dealing with China and some possible--and more coherent--alternative approaches to dealing with Beijing. Allison does a great job presenting these option without any discernible bias, despite the various approaches running the gamut from a conciliatory approach where the US abandons Taiwan and South Korea, to a full on Cold-War-style containment policy where the US would actively try to subvert the Chinese Communist Party.
Although Allison's book is engaging and thought provoking, it is not without substantial weaknesses. The biggest weakness is that his analysis of China is simplistic and leans in China's favor. He treats China's continued rise and eclipsing of the United States as a foregone conclusion, despite some very real and difficult challenges in China's future. Mounting debt, ethnic unrest, and declining economic growth are a few of these.
His analysis of China is also nearly completely dependent on a single source - Lee Kuan Yew, the first Prime Minister of Singapore. Allison treat Lee Kuan Yew as if he were the only opinion worth hearing and definitely doesn't explore any alternative views on China's nature or future.
Although the analysis of China could be much more sophisticated or nuanced, this isn't a book about China, but instead focuses on the dynamics between rising and established powers, so I don't think this is a huge detraction. "Destined for War" is well worth a read, and the issues it discusses are worth much more thought.