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boomt 's review for:
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
by Philip E. Tetlock
In the wake of two of the greatest intelligence failures of the early 21st century, the intelligence community undertook a wide-ranging self-examination to understand what went wrong. As part of that effort, a little known agency, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity or IARPA, undertook a competition to rigorously examine the factors that improve the accuracy of predictions by 50% or more. Philip Tetlock was at the center of this effort and he summarizes the findings in this compelling summary.
In the process, he eviscerates our culture that celebrates leaders and talking heads who speak with certainty about what will happen without ever being held accountable for accuracy. Even if their predictions are sufficiently specific to determine if they were right or wrong, which is rare, they are adept at explaining why things turned out differently in a foreseeable way such that their reputation for wisdom and insight is untarnished.
The research identifies superforecasters, individuals who consistently make predictions with the highest accuracy. They are distinguished by philosophic outlook, habits of thinking, methods, and work ethic. Superforecasters are actively open-minded and pragmatic. They seek a range of perspectives and actively avoid being biased by pre-conceived notions or beliefs. Further, they actively update their forecasts in light of new evidence, recalling the (apocryphal) Keynes quote, "When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?"
Tetlock also considers the requirements for teams of forecasters to be effective and how leaders must balance the need to actively seek diverse views that explicitly incorporate uncertainty with the need to establish clear direction around which the organization can align.
Superforecasting is hard to categorize, so I'll just say it is one of the best business, social science, economics, and public policy books of 2015.
In the process, he eviscerates our culture that celebrates leaders and talking heads who speak with certainty about what will happen without ever being held accountable for accuracy. Even if their predictions are sufficiently specific to determine if they were right or wrong, which is rare, they are adept at explaining why things turned out differently in a foreseeable way such that their reputation for wisdom and insight is untarnished.
The research identifies superforecasters, individuals who consistently make predictions with the highest accuracy. They are distinguished by philosophic outlook, habits of thinking, methods, and work ethic. Superforecasters are actively open-minded and pragmatic. They seek a range of perspectives and actively avoid being biased by pre-conceived notions or beliefs. Further, they actively update their forecasts in light of new evidence, recalling the (apocryphal) Keynes quote, "When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?"
Tetlock also considers the requirements for teams of forecasters to be effective and how leaders must balance the need to actively seek diverse views that explicitly incorporate uncertainty with the need to establish clear direction around which the organization can align.
Superforecasting is hard to categorize, so I'll just say it is one of the best business, social science, economics, and public policy books of 2015.