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supperhey 's review for:
When you think that you "know", you set yourself up to a world of hurt by the unknowns that you don't know about. That is the central thesis of this book. The tools of mathematics and statistics have blind us into the ultra-certainty of the near and far future, and we make economic gambles, political decisions and social policies on these flimsy foundations. That does not increase the frequency of Black Swan Events (they are only black because we do not know of, or dismiss them based on our models), but the severity of their impacts.
Written with wit and philosophical erudition, this book was an eye-opening read in time of crisis (COVID19), with the events unfolding in real time about how "models" are failing at every turn to "predict" the severity of the event, while delaying and disrupting the reopening of the economy.
Written with wit and philosophical erudition, this book was an eye-opening read in time of crisis (COVID19), with the events unfolding in real time about how "models" are failing at every turn to "predict" the severity of the event, while delaying and disrupting the reopening of the economy.