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A review by takeshi_1
Чорний лебідь. Про (не)ймовірне у реальному житті by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
4.0
The Black Swan was an unusual reading; a list of thoughts, opinions and author's ideas about absolutely unpredictable but extremely impactful events in our life. The title refers to the opening of Black Swan’s in Australia, a groundbreaking event in the 17th century when Europeans believed that swans could be only white. Interestingly, people tend to easily find clear reasons for “black swans“ after it has occurred and are powerless to predict them in advance.
An author differentiates two categories of areas widely spread in our life - one where such events are frequent - Extremistan (economy, politics, wealth), and the other more stable - Mediocristan. And we are almost living in Extremistan, where you can win a lot eventually and lose everything in a day. Since we are there, the huge recommendation is to remember about extremum cases, swans. Prefer fractal instead of gaussian distribution for analytics, which is relevant for Mediocristan. Barbell Strategy is a recommendation for doing staff safely in Extremistan. When you want to do some risky action, have a stable backup, and probably invest 80% in stable things and the other 20% in venture and risky but beneficial ones.
The main idea the author has inspired me is to focus on our reaction in case of such an event happens, but not on thinking when or if it happens. A funny but clear example of future prediction described in this book was the “turkey challenge”. Every day turkey is fed well; it thinks everything is going better and better. But in reality, turkey is one day closer to being roasted for some family celebration every holy day, and eventually, it happens. Paradox...
An author differentiates two categories of areas widely spread in our life - one where such events are frequent - Extremistan (economy, politics, wealth), and the other more stable - Mediocristan. And we are almost living in Extremistan, where you can win a lot eventually and lose everything in a day. Since we are there, the huge recommendation is to remember about extremum cases, swans. Prefer fractal instead of gaussian distribution for analytics, which is relevant for Mediocristan. Barbell Strategy is a recommendation for doing staff safely in Extremistan. When you want to do some risky action, have a stable backup, and probably invest 80% in stable things and the other 20% in venture and risky but beneficial ones.
The main idea the author has inspired me is to focus on our reaction in case of such an event happens, but not on thinking when or if it happens. A funny but clear example of future prediction described in this book was the “turkey challenge”. Every day turkey is fed well; it thinks everything is going better and better. But in reality, turkey is one day closer to being roasted for some family celebration every holy day, and eventually, it happens. Paradox...