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3.72 AVERAGE
3.72 AVERAGE
In terms of substance, this is unquestionably a great book. A thought provoking read, The Black Swan deals with the nature of uncertainty and the flawed manner in which we grapple with it. So flawed is the conventional way in which we discuss uncertainty - using concepts like the Gaussian distribution - that Taleb has to invent a whole new language to describe uncertainty; a language with words and concepts like "Mediocristan", "Extremistan", "Mandelbrotian" and "ludic fallacy".
The 298 pages aren't an easy read. It takes a while to get used to Taleb's new language. But like Anthony Burgess' A Clockwork Orange, once you start learning the rudiments of Taleb's new tongue, the world he's constructing for you begins to make more sense.
Where this book fell short of 5 stars for me was in the style department. Translation difficulties aside, the most challenging thing about navigating The Black Swan was getting past Taleb's arrogance. I know there are some pp out there who think that Taleb's arrogance and disdain for the (blinkered) establishment is perfectly justified, entertaining even. I don't know about entertaining but there are certainly many occasions in the book where Taleb appears more intent on provoking than provoking thought, offending rather than offering an alternative view. Taleb might make his point more effectively if he'd stuck to using examples and illustrations to cut down his opponents, rather than verbal abuse.
The 298 pages aren't an easy read. It takes a while to get used to Taleb's new language. But like Anthony Burgess' A Clockwork Orange, once you start learning the rudiments of Taleb's new tongue, the world he's constructing for you begins to make more sense.
Where this book fell short of 5 stars for me was in the style department. Translation difficulties aside, the most challenging thing about navigating The Black Swan was getting past Taleb's arrogance. I know there are some pp out there who think that Taleb's arrogance and disdain for the (blinkered) establishment is perfectly justified, entertaining even. I don't know about entertaining but there are certainly many occasions in the book where Taleb appears more intent on provoking than provoking thought, offending rather than offering an alternative view. Taleb might make his point more effectively if he'd stuck to using examples and illustrations to cut down his opponents, rather than verbal abuse.
This book was very frustrating as Taleb's main point about the unpredictability of high impact events is very important. However, his "arguments" for the idea all seem to be based on our cognitive biases for why we tend to find patterns that we project into the future (and how that is wrong, but if you have read anything about the psychology of decision making, then none of these are particularly interesting). I was hoping that he would talk more about the historical impact of the idea of the black swan and less condescension of people for their [natural] cognitive biases.
This book was fine overall - Taleb's main point is fair and important (how to make robust decisions to prepare for inevitable "black swan" or seemingly unexpected events). My primary gripe here is with the author himself. Taleb comes off as dismissive and self-aggrandizing. His "black swan" idea does not seem to be nearly as novel as he makes it out to be. Perhaps he could have articulated what exactly it is that makes it more unique without simply dismissing the critique as unfounded. Overall, I would recommend reading a brief review of the book, but you don't need to put yourself through reading the entire volume to get the main point. Importantly, I think there was a bit that I did not follow and I think those with backgrounds in finance/statistics might be able to take more away from this (some deeper understanding) than I did.
Great first half of the book. Part 3 & 4 more technical, still interesting, but less engaging than the first 2 parts.
Taleb certainly has good points to make with good advice on how to approach the risks from surprise events and the failure of standard statistical approaches to risk.
However, the book suffers in places from a descent into diatribe. Taleb could certainly have cut this back considerably and made the book about half as long. It also takes a while to get going, so stick with it. Overall worth reading, but not an enjoyable read.
However, the book suffers in places from a descent into diatribe. Taleb could certainly have cut this back considerably and made the book about half as long. It also takes a while to get going, so stick with it. Overall worth reading, but not an enjoyable read.
A very convincing argument - the events that we can't predict have the most influence on the world's future, so forecasting based on past occurrences is an exercise in futility. Taleb makes his case without getting too bogged down in the technicalities of probability theory and philosophy - his particular specialties. He's also very funny, and totally unashamed to attack those with whom he disagrees. The book was published prior to the current financial crisis, but you can easily see how it fits his model.
informative
slow-paced
1,5
La idea del libro merece 5 estrellas, pero el libro merece puntuación negativa. Se repite lo mismo una y otra vez durante 500 páginas, sin orden ni concierto, con un estilo insoportable por parte del autor. Debo reconocer que no lo he terminado, no sé ni cómo he aguantado tanto tiempo intentando tragármelo. Recomiendo ver o leer un resumen, porque la idea central es realmente importante, pero ni acercarse al libro.
La idea del libro merece 5 estrellas, pero el libro merece puntuación negativa. Se repite lo mismo una y otra vez durante 500 páginas, sin orden ni concierto, con un estilo insoportable por parte del autor. Debo reconocer que no lo he terminado, no sé ni cómo he aguantado tanto tiempo intentando tragármelo. Recomiendo ver o leer un resumen, porque la idea central es realmente importante, pero ni acercarse al libro.
Very novel contrarian view to the traditional method of reacting to and behaving with uncertainty; very practical.
The super-fast diminishing of returns as you read the book and the author's (super-obvious) insecurities make the reading a pain. It's surprising that nobody close to the author pointed out the faux-pas throughout the book to him. Very surprising.
The super-fast diminishing of returns as you read the book and the author's (super-obvious) insecurities make the reading a pain. It's surprising that nobody close to the author pointed out the faux-pas throughout the book to him. Very surprising.
informative
slow-paced