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3.72 AVERAGE
3.72 AVERAGE
Aggressive and arrogant, but also brilliant and practical. Definitely see why it was so influential (especially since it came out in 2007, right before the crash of 08).
Quotes
- "We do not spontaneously learn that we don't learn that we don't learn."
- "Reality provides such forced revisions of beliefs at quite a high frequency."
- "Mistaking a niiave observation of the past as something definitive or representative of the future is our one and only cause of our inability to understand the black swan." Ex. A turkey farm observing every day of the year of data before Thanksgiving.
- "We cannot manufactor more information than the past can deliver...we just don't know how much information there is in the past."
- "... principle aim is to not be a sucker in things that matter...all I care about is making a decision without being the turkey."
- 'how do you cross the street with so much risk consciousness? I'm just trying to avoid crossing the street blindfolded.'
- "We tend to use knowledge as therapy."
- "True, our knowledge does grow, but it's threatened by greater increases in confidence."
- "Looking busy can help you claim responsibility for the results in a random environment. The appearance of busyness reinforces the perception of causality, of the link between results and ones roles in them."
- "I'll never get to know the unknown.... however, I can always guess how it can affect me, and I should base my decisions around that..... I don't know the odds of an earthquake, but I can imagine how San Francisco might be affected by one."
- 'an average human would have to be half male and have female.'
- "'I had to invent my predecessors so people take me seriously' he once told me. And he used the credibility of big guns as a rhetorical device. One can always ferret out predecessors for any thought.... the brand name goes to the one who connects the dots, not the one who makes a casual observation... in the end it's those who derive consequences and seize the importance of the ideas, seeing their real value, who win the day."
- "Ideas come and go, stories stay."
Quotes
- "We do not spontaneously learn that we don't learn that we don't learn."
- "Reality provides such forced revisions of beliefs at quite a high frequency."
- "Mistaking a niiave observation of the past as something definitive or representative of the future is our one and only cause of our inability to understand the black swan." Ex. A turkey farm observing every day of the year of data before Thanksgiving.
- "We cannot manufactor more information than the past can deliver...we just don't know how much information there is in the past."
- "... principle aim is to not be a sucker in things that matter...all I care about is making a decision without being the turkey."
- 'how do you cross the street with so much risk consciousness? I'm just trying to avoid crossing the street blindfolded.'
- "We tend to use knowledge as therapy."
- "True, our knowledge does grow, but it's threatened by greater increases in confidence."
- "Looking busy can help you claim responsibility for the results in a random environment. The appearance of busyness reinforces the perception of causality, of the link between results and ones roles in them."
- "I'll never get to know the unknown.... however, I can always guess how it can affect me, and I should base my decisions around that..... I don't know the odds of an earthquake, but I can imagine how San Francisco might be affected by one."
- 'an average human would have to be half male and have female.'
- "'I had to invent my predecessors so people take me seriously' he once told me. And he used the credibility of big guns as a rhetorical device. One can always ferret out predecessors for any thought.... the brand name goes to the one who connects the dots, not the one who makes a casual observation... in the end it's those who derive consequences and seize the importance of the ideas, seeing their real value, who win the day."
- "Ideas come and go, stories stay."
Definitely an interesting read...author is very bright and writes well, but he dwells a bit too much on his anti-establishment/academia rants.
Black swans are unknown unknowns and we tend to season our facts with untested causation to make the "knowledge" digestible. The author dismisses statistics and economics but I think these fields have grown as a result. I'll read Antifragile next but honestly, the Incerto just seems like his own rehashing of the same book as some form of bet-hedging that one of them will become a best seller.
Solid coverage of an interesting subject, but it's a slog at times. As I've come to expect with Taleb, you must withstand a barrage of anecdotes and character assassinations to come away with a relative few key points (all anointed with ham-fisted "novel" names, such as Extremistan vs Mediocristan). I'm glad I ended up with the later expanded edition because some of the more interesting arguments were added in a long (100+ pages?) essay addendum.
He writes with extreme arrogance and delights in trash-talking as many people as possible. I find that somewhat annoying but he's a colorful personality so at least it gives him a unique voice.
The general points/techniques I took away were:
- Identification of which things are/aren't scalable (body weight and height live in Mediocristan because they are confined to a relatively narrow range of values, while net worth or books sold live in Extremistan because they scale almost infinitely)
- Importance of how unknown unknowns cause Black Swan events, both negative (stock market collapse) and positive (runaway bestselling novel)
- Error in assuming most randomness can be modeled by Gaussian distributions (the concepts of standard deviation and variance, for example, are used in way too many situations where they make no sense)
- Futility of modeling the future only on past history (excludes possibility of Black Swans, leads us to believe that something that has never happened can't happen in the future, or is so unlikely as to be safely excluded)
- Ludic fallacy: our over-simplification of most randomness/uncertainty to reference points in games (dice, etc)
All told, some good new ideas. Worth the work but not a purely enjoyable read.
He writes with extreme arrogance and delights in trash-talking as many people as possible. I find that somewhat annoying but he's a colorful personality so at least it gives him a unique voice.
The general points/techniques I took away were:
- Identification of which things are/aren't scalable (body weight and height live in Mediocristan because they are confined to a relatively narrow range of values, while net worth or books sold live in Extremistan because they scale almost infinitely)
- Importance of how unknown unknowns cause Black Swan events, both negative (stock market collapse) and positive (runaway bestselling novel)
- Error in assuming most randomness can be modeled by Gaussian distributions (the concepts of standard deviation and variance, for example, are used in way too many situations where they make no sense)
- Futility of modeling the future only on past history (excludes possibility of Black Swans, leads us to believe that something that has never happened can't happen in the future, or is so unlikely as to be safely excluded)
- Ludic fallacy: our over-simplification of most randomness/uncertainty to reference points in games (dice, etc)
All told, some good new ideas. Worth the work but not a purely enjoyable read.
As you read this imagine the author as your somewhat inebriated irascible uncle, filled with odd and wonderful tales but in need of the occasional mute or fast-forward button. Absolutely worth reading, but don't worry about handing him off to the bed stand when he starts repeating himself.
A fascinating perspective on the likelihood of improbable events and their impact.
I will note, the author is fairly openly arrogant. The tone of this can as a result be somewhat grating at times, but I took it as something to be entertained by rather than annoyed about and enjoyed the result. The thoughts in it were well worth a bit of grating tone to hear.
I will note, the author is fairly openly arrogant. The tone of this can as a result be somewhat grating at times, but I took it as something to be entertained by rather than annoyed about and enjoyed the result. The thoughts in it were well worth a bit of grating tone to hear.
I read this book a few years ago but when I saw it again now I felt such an upwelling of hatred I had to immediately write a review. I just... I hated it so much.
There are a few problems that are common to many in this genre--the writing is a little indulgent, a little bloated, a little repetitive, sometimes boring.
But the main characteristic and the thing that still sticks with me after more than two years is that this book is pure, liquid smug. Taleb is so ridiculously self-righteous, pompous and smug that I still choke on it now. And it's not a subtle, slightly self-deprecating, forgivable thing. It is constant, slapping you in the face LOOK AT ME I WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG HAHAHA YOU BASTARDS. It is every page.
I can't remember much of his actual theories since the chip on his shoulder kind of obscured everything else, but I do remember thinking it wasn't really new. 'Stockbrokers are kinda winging it'. Well, duh.
Clearly, an economist touched him in a weird way at some point and now he has a raging vendetta against the entire profession. If you like people who constantly pat themselves on the back and you enjoy being coated in a greasy film of smugness, this book is for you.
There are a few problems that are common to many in this genre--the writing is a little indulgent, a little bloated, a little repetitive, sometimes boring.
But the main characteristic and the thing that still sticks with me after more than two years is that this book is pure, liquid smug. Taleb is so ridiculously self-righteous, pompous and smug that I still choke on it now. And it's not a subtle, slightly self-deprecating, forgivable thing. It is constant, slapping you in the face LOOK AT ME I WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG HAHAHA YOU BASTARDS. It is every page.
I can't remember much of his actual theories since the chip on his shoulder kind of obscured everything else, but I do remember thinking it wasn't really new. 'Stockbrokers are kinda winging it'. Well, duh.
Clearly, an economist touched him in a weird way at some point and now he has a raging vendetta against the entire profession. If you like people who constantly pat themselves on the back and you enjoy being coated in a greasy film of smugness, this book is for you.
“Snub your destiny. I have taught myself to resist running to keep on schedule. This may seem a very small piece of advice, but it registered. In refusing to run to catch trains, I have felt the true value of elegance and aesthetics in behavior, a sense of being in control of my time, my schedule, and my life. Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Likewise, not matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if that’s what you are seeking. You stand above the rat race and the pecking order, not outside of it, if you do so by choice.”
- Ever since my embark upon this book I have grappled with its challenging ideas which strangely enough, never occured to me and they changed the way I view the world to a decent sense. I have always been the type of a guy which would typically think that with increased work come increased rewards, failing to realize that a true distinguishing factor between many great people wasn't due to their lack of hard work but rather to luck and chance, an unexpected event that dramatically influenced their lives or as Taleb calls it; a Black Swan. Even though I have been admittedly under influence to drop the book and pick up another, I kept myself trying to grasp what Taleb aimed at delivering, which wasn't easy at all but certainly a payoff. Also a worthy point of note, there is similarities of projection and thought with Thinking Fast And Slow by Danniel Kahneman which I read about 3-4 years ago. On my conclusion, such a book is one I'd like to revisit, along with Thinking Fast And Slow, another time, perhaps once I get a better grasp of my understanding of these ideas through more books revoloving around its subject
- Ever since my embark upon this book I have grappled with its challenging ideas which strangely enough, never occured to me and they changed the way I view the world to a decent sense. I have always been the type of a guy which would typically think that with increased work come increased rewards, failing to realize that a true distinguishing factor between many great people wasn't due to their lack of hard work but rather to luck and chance, an unexpected event that dramatically influenced their lives or as Taleb calls it; a Black Swan. Even though I have been admittedly under influence to drop the book and pick up another, I kept myself trying to grasp what Taleb aimed at delivering, which wasn't easy at all but certainly a payoff. Also a worthy point of note, there is similarities of projection and thought with Thinking Fast And Slow by Danniel Kahneman which I read about 3-4 years ago. On my conclusion, such a book is one I'd like to revisit, along with Thinking Fast And Slow, another time, perhaps once I get a better grasp of my understanding of these ideas through more books revoloving around its subject
Helped me to figure out I can listen to specific audiobooks that focuses on one story.