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3.72 AVERAGE
3.72 AVERAGE
challenging
reflective
medium-paced
I have essentially the same complaints here as with Fooled by Randomness (though there are thankfully much fewer trading anecdotes). Mostly,
1) Much of the book goes like this: Taleb introduces a really interesting idea in a few pages, then basically repeats himself for 20 pages.
2) He’s really quite arrogant, even though I normally have a high tolerance for that sort of thing if the person knows what they’re talking about. But it’s pretty endless in this book: If you don’t like his exact set of pet intellectuals or disagree with him you’re obviously a moron.
I did not even read the expanded essays from the 2nd edition because I was quite tired of this book by the end and felt like he was just repeating himself again. Despite all this, the ideas are still pretty interesting and novel 15 years later, and so I will probably read Antifragile.
1) Much of the book goes like this: Taleb introduces a really interesting idea in a few pages, then basically repeats himself for 20 pages.
2) He’s really quite arrogant, even though I normally have a high tolerance for that sort of thing if the person knows what they’re talking about. But it’s pretty endless in this book: If you don’t like his exact set of pet intellectuals or disagree with him you’re obviously a moron.
I did not even read the expanded essays from the 2nd edition because I was quite tired of this book by the end and felt like he was just repeating himself again. Despite all this, the ideas are still pretty interesting and novel 15 years later, and so I will probably read Antifragile.
When you think that you "know", you set yourself up to a world of hurt by the unknowns that you don't know about. That is the central thesis of this book. The tools of mathematics and statistics have blind us into the ultra-certainty of the near and far future, and we make economic gambles, political decisions and social policies on these flimsy foundations. That does not increase the frequency of Black Swan Events (they are only black because we do not know of, or dismiss them based on our models), but the severity of their impacts.
Written with wit and philosophical erudition, this book was an eye-opening read in time of crisis (COVID19), with the events unfolding in real time about how "models" are failing at every turn to "predict" the severity of the event, while delaying and disrupting the reopening of the economy.
Written with wit and philosophical erudition, this book was an eye-opening read in time of crisis (COVID19), with the events unfolding in real time about how "models" are failing at every turn to "predict" the severity of the event, while delaying and disrupting the reopening of the economy.
I was browsing in the local book store and my eyes caught NNT's The Black Swan. I reminisced briefly on my first read through the extraordinarily non-conformist treatise that the book is but I was halted by the sight of two words that instantly induced a state of excitement. "Second Edition." With a new post-script essay. Ten minutes later I had a copy of the book. This one meant for my small and healthy library in New York.
A caveat is in order. I am an economist or am on the route to be one. A person with even superficial familiarity with NNT should know the disgust he carries for my profession. Yet, the truth is I actually appreciate the heat. Of course, my association with NNT's work predates my decision to enter the economics-finance profession. 5 years ago, I liked him because he was a delightful balance of a practitioner and a connoisseur. Now I realize I like him, in addition, because he is an honest trenchant critic. The world needs people who are thoughtful iconoclasts.
To the book. (I may add on a review of the post-script essay but let that not be the main course for the day.) The book makes the forceful point that the world, at least in matters that increasingly concern human-kind, is not Gaussian. In other words, extreme events matter because they are possible compared to a world with exponential tails. What's the probability of that extreme event taking place? That's not the point. The point is that the consequences are real and possibly damaging enough -- in the case of a negative black swan -- for us to worry about them. Related to this is the problem of induction. The world cannot be understood by following the rules of induction because it takes one counter-example to throw everything out of the window. Taleb writes the book in his unique (compared to his contemporaries) autobiographical way, peppering the text with digressions that add value to the main text, and holding nothing back in his criticism of thinkers, old and new.
There are many little snippets and anecdotes Taleb makes that made this revisit worth it for me. 10 years on. Having read some mediocre books recently, The Black Swan made me feel alive again.
A caveat is in order. I am an economist or am on the route to be one. A person with even superficial familiarity with NNT should know the disgust he carries for my profession. Yet, the truth is I actually appreciate the heat. Of course, my association with NNT's work predates my decision to enter the economics-finance profession. 5 years ago, I liked him because he was a delightful balance of a practitioner and a connoisseur. Now I realize I like him, in addition, because he is an honest trenchant critic. The world needs people who are thoughtful iconoclasts.
To the book. (I may add on a review of the post-script essay but let that not be the main course for the day.) The book makes the forceful point that the world, at least in matters that increasingly concern human-kind, is not Gaussian. In other words, extreme events matter because they are possible compared to a world with exponential tails. What's the probability of that extreme event taking place? That's not the point. The point is that the consequences are real and possibly damaging enough -- in the case of a negative black swan -- for us to worry about them. Related to this is the problem of induction. The world cannot be understood by following the rules of induction because it takes one counter-example to throw everything out of the window. Taleb writes the book in his unique (compared to his contemporaries) autobiographical way, peppering the text with digressions that add value to the main text, and holding nothing back in his criticism of thinkers, old and new.
There are many little snippets and anecdotes Taleb makes that made this revisit worth it for me. 10 years on. Having read some mediocre books recently, The Black Swan made me feel alive again.
Highly recommended if you genuinely hate any of the following:
• normal distribution
• Nobel prizes
• economists
• economists winning Nobel prizes
• The New York Times
• book editors
• social sciences in general
• normal distribution
• Nobel prizes
• economists
• economists winning Nobel prizes
• The New York Times
• book editors
• social sciences in general
Nassim Nicholas Taleb gathers everything that contemporary economics and statistics are, throws it on the ground, steps on it with both his feet, and then starts jumping on it repeatedly. Those were my thoughts when I was reading the parts of the book that concerned the Bell-shaped curve and the Gaussian methods and the Law of Large Numbers. No normal distribution in reality?! I was shocked after realizing how true all he is saying is and what a victim of the ludic fallacy I have become (that is, the inappropriateness of applying theories to real life situations). After giving it a thought I can say that I agree with him to an extent that seems unbelievable to me, and I want to stress that I am currently a student in econometrics! But why no one seems to do something about it?!? It is indeed true that most of the time after some data are used to make a decision based on predictions about the future, hardly ever anyone looks back to verify how much of them became true. This may sound a bit generalized, but think of social planning and public welfare systems and shoot me if I’m wrong. Important to note here is that although I am, in general, a proponent of funded social systems, still there is something that doesn't seem right to me with the whole “count on your own investments’ return” idea when it comes to old-age pensions. But to go back on the never looking back though, even if someone does turns back, how come the realized failure of the past predictions isn't scrutinized, but instead it somehow remains unspoken of? Does it suit some interests, or is it just human ignorance? Taleb says that to him, ‘science is about how not to be a sucker’. Well, judging from his successes and wealth I’d say: BRAVO, Mr. Taleb, well done not being a sucker. Too bad most of us use science to be suckers, but the worst is that most of us don’t bother to care. Something to think before going to bed....
informative
slow-paced
Despite a few flaws and Taleb's characteristic and unapologetic meandering style, this was really good. All his books should be required reading for anyone in business, policy making, decision making, or breathing. I really enjoyed the discussion about empiricism vs rationalism, and their strengths and limitations. The concepts of extremistan vs mediocristan are very useful. He goes over falsification, the scientific method, the filtering effect on ancient processes, the problem of silent evidence, and a lot more. He discusses really well the phenomenon of why those who find cures are recognised and rewarded far more than those who find preventions, and how we should think about this (the answer is not to throw up our hands and say "well what else can we do?"). I've always thought about these kinds of things, especially how someone who had implemented a policy of locked airline cabin doors on September 10, 2001 would never have been credited with saving 1000s of lives and preventing a long war, but would have actually prevented that nonetheless. I think we're often confused by the lack of empirical results of preventionism, so we give up. We need best practices, and robustness (aka antifragility), even when we can't show the results. We also can't be fooled by thinking that post-black swan fixes make us safe. Putting locks on cabin doors on September 12 would prevent another September 11 style takeover, but wouldn't prevent the next black swan. Locks are good, but feeling confident that we've fixed the problem is bad.
Taleb talks about silent evidence, and naive empiricism, but I thought he should have covered (emphasised) beneficial empiricism, and when an argument from silence is valid, ie, when there's a lack of evidence when there shouldn't be (eg, finding no archaeological remains of a city in a particular place doesn't mean it's theoretically impossible that the place existed but was thoroughly and systematically erased, but its lack of evidence is so unexpected that we'd consider that to be a valid argument from silence that the place most probably didn't ever exist).
Taleb's distinction of the 4 quadrants was also helpful, because it clarified when and how black swans are a problem.
The other thing I really liked is the discussion about how some of the greatest scientific discoveries were serendipitous discoveries, not ones that the scientist planned to find. The trick is to put yourself in the path of good luck and not be too blinkered by your plan and projected outcomes, but be on the lookout for opportunities. I've found that some of the best opportunities in life and work have come when least expected and in a way that I could never have planned for. The trick isn't to plan to have a specific thing happen, but to put yourself in situations and frames of mind to recognise those opportunities. Sometimes from the outside this can look like wasted time because it's not following a specific plan, but it's very intentional. After a while people may wonder why you're so lucky, and it's hard to explain to them. You're no luckier than the next person, you're just more open to it and putting yourself in situations where more lucky things can find you, due to the laws of large numbers and probabilities.
I'm not sure if this is a review anymore or a journal, but Taleb makes me think....
(2nd time through now, it's still a very relevant book. His style is a bit meandering, and I think a lot of that could be cut without losing much. His newer essays toward the end are excellent, and I may review just those one day. It's interesting, in 2020, to read how many times he mentions the possibility of a global pandemic....)
Taleb talks about silent evidence, and naive empiricism, but I thought he should have covered (emphasised) beneficial empiricism, and when an argument from silence is valid, ie, when there's a lack of evidence when there shouldn't be (eg, finding no archaeological remains of a city in a particular place doesn't mean it's theoretically impossible that the place existed but was thoroughly and systematically erased, but its lack of evidence is so unexpected that we'd consider that to be a valid argument from silence that the place most probably didn't ever exist).
Taleb's distinction of the 4 quadrants was also helpful, because it clarified when and how black swans are a problem.
The other thing I really liked is the discussion about how some of the greatest scientific discoveries were serendipitous discoveries, not ones that the scientist planned to find. The trick is to put yourself in the path of good luck and not be too blinkered by your plan and projected outcomes, but be on the lookout for opportunities. I've found that some of the best opportunities in life and work have come when least expected and in a way that I could never have planned for. The trick isn't to plan to have a specific thing happen, but to put yourself in situations and frames of mind to recognise those opportunities. Sometimes from the outside this can look like wasted time because it's not following a specific plan, but it's very intentional. After a while people may wonder why you're so lucky, and it's hard to explain to them. You're no luckier than the next person, you're just more open to it and putting yourself in situations where more lucky things can find you, due to the laws of large numbers and probabilities.
I'm not sure if this is a review anymore or a journal, but Taleb makes me think....
(2nd time through now, it's still a very relevant book. His style is a bit meandering, and I think a lot of that could be cut without losing much. His newer essays toward the end are excellent, and I may review just those one day. It's interesting, in 2020, to read how many times he mentions the possibility of a global pandemic....)
challenging
informative
reflective
slow-paced