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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
1amtarth's review against another edition
informative
medium-paced
4.0
Some interesting stuff. Heavy emphasis on stock trading, which I don't do even a little, but still some things that I can learn from.
stephenwhedlund's review against another edition
4.0
I was especially hopeful he would prove that the market was random, but instead he spent the majority of the book talking probabilities and psychology. While interesting, I found the book titled inaccurately. He proved that success in the market is statistically probable due to luck, but that doesn't mean that luck caused someone's success...I think haha
Chapter 8 was, in my opinion, the best section. Frequency doesn't matter, only magnitude does. If I make $1 a day for 1,000 days, it is all worthless if I lose $10,000 in 1 day.
Chapter 8 was, in my opinion, the best section. Frequency doesn't matter, only magnitude does. If I make $1 a day for 1,000 days, it is all worthless if I lose $10,000 in 1 day.
dave_peticolas's review against another edition
4.0
A remarkable book about human fallibility in estimating probability.
wintermute47's review against another edition
1.0
The thing about white swans, Nassim Nicholas Taleb might tell you, is that no matter how many of them you observe, they give you no ability to assess the likelihood that tomorrow you might find a black swan. The thing about Nassim Nicholas Taleb books, I might tell you, is that no matter how many of them you read, it's impossible to tell if he's as smart as he thinks he is, or if he's just an amazingly conceited jackass. Read this if you invest heavily in the stock market or if you want to see a philosopher pat himself on the back for three hundred pages.
chris_hendriks's review against another edition
3.0
Geeft mooi aan dat het leven uit kansen bestaat en niet uit zekerheden, dat mensen succes altijd wijten aan hun vaardigheden en ongeluk aan toeval, zelden kom je iemand tegen die zijn succes aan het toeval wijt.
Voor mij helaas speelt het werkveld van de auteur een te grote rol in het boek. Zijn werkveld bestaat uit de financiële markten.
Tweet:
Read. Am I proficient in luck (the luck factor) or fooled by randomness?
Voor mij helaas speelt het werkveld van de auteur een te grote rol in het boek. Zijn werkveld bestaat uit de financiële markten.
Tweet:
Read. Am I proficient in luck (the luck factor) or fooled by randomness?
ahmedh409's review against another edition
5.0
A trader-turned-statistician explains the role of probability and randomness in everyday life in an informative yet casual tone. This book is about dealing with uncertain events, which make up the majority of events in life. Many people seem to be complaining about Taleb’s seemingly pretentious and snarky tone throughout the book, as well as his anecdotes which he provides as evidence for his theories, but I prefer to look at it as a memoir of someone who has specialized in dealing with noisy data throughout his life. He’s a bit arrogant, but he has extremely useful things to say, so it’s okay.
Some notes:
- Scientists are seeing more and more evidence that we are specifically designed by mother nature to fool ourselves. Carefully pick insurances and pick them often; limit downsides from negative randomness, take advantage of positive randomness.
- Luck is fragile. It cannot be repeated reliably, so never rely on luck (but take advantage of it when you have it).
- It does not matter how frequently something succeeds if the potential downside is catastrophic. For example, if there is a 99% chance of winning $1 million and 1% chance of death of yourself and family members, NEVER take the bet.
- Signal over noise: the majority of life’s events come from noise (randomness), do not try to extract meaning from noise.
- Anxiety is the result of thinking of about an issue constantly and mistaking noise for signal. Check on your anxieties and examine your bets infrequently, this will lead to a higher signal-to-noise ratio in your emotions and clearer thinking.
Some notes:
- Scientists are seeing more and more evidence that we are specifically designed by mother nature to fool ourselves. Carefully pick insurances and pick them often; limit downsides from negative randomness, take advantage of positive randomness.
- Luck is fragile. It cannot be repeated reliably, so never rely on luck (but take advantage of it when you have it).
- It does not matter how frequently something succeeds if the potential downside is catastrophic. For example, if there is a 99% chance of winning $1 million and 1% chance of death of yourself and family members, NEVER take the bet.
- Signal over noise: the majority of life’s events come from noise (randomness), do not try to extract meaning from noise.
- Anxiety is the result of thinking of about an issue constantly and mistaking noise for signal. Check on your anxieties and examine your bets infrequently, this will lead to a higher signal-to-noise ratio in your emotions and clearer thinking.
shaanbharwani's review against another edition
4.0
Writing this 1/5/25, like 4 months after I read it. Not sure why I didn't review. Will read again once I read Black Swan, Skin in the Game, and Antifragile, and then actually review with it fresh in my mind. Just a reminder here
bbatsov's review against another edition
3.0
I have to admit that reading this book was somewhat painful for me. It touches upon some great ideas, but it's super repetitive and disjointed. Taleb touches upon a ton of ideas in a very superficial manner, and often goes overboard with references to the work of others. I respect him for doing things his way, but that's not my way.
The book's core message is quite simple, even though it may be hard to understand (and apply):
Anyways, I think the book is an interesting read regardless.
The book's core message is quite simple, even though it may be hard to understand (and apply):
We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible; we scorn the abstract. Everything good (aesthetics, ethics) and wrong (Fooled by Randomness) with us seems to flow from it.
Anyways, I think the book is an interesting read regardless.