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dda9's review against another edition
3.0
Graham Allison's "Destined for War" is a thought provoking book if you have any interest in international relations or the future of America (or China). I enjoyed it from beginning to end.
For those who don't know, Thucydides's Trap is named after the Greek historian Thucydides's description of the Peloponnesian War and the dynamics that led up to it. Sparta, the ruling power in Greece at the time, was threatened by the rise of Athens. Athens felt that Sparta was trying to keep it down and determined to destroy it. Neither city wanted war, but they ended up in an enormously destructive war anyway.
Allison explores the question of whether or not the US and China can avoid this same dynamic. He describes the phenomenon of Thucydides's Trap, the recent history, current situations, and likely futures of the United States and China. He also goes through a collection of historical examples, some of which feature countries that successfully managed their rivalries without war, and many more that ended up in bloody conflict. He also discusses several hypothetical scenarios that could lead the US into a war with China.
Allison then talks about weaknesses in the current US approach to dealing with China and some possible--and more coherent--alternative approaches to dealing with Beijing. Allison does a great job presenting these option without any discernible bias, despite the various approaches running the gamut from a conciliatory approach where the US abandons Taiwan and South Korea, to a full on Cold-War-style containment policy where the US would actively try to subvert the Chinese Communist Party.
Although Allison's book is engaging and thought provoking, it is not without substantial weaknesses. The biggest weakness is that his analysis of China is simplistic and leans in China's favor. He treats China's continued rise and eclipsing of the United States as a foregone conclusion, despite some very real and difficult challenges in China's future. Mounting debt, ethnic unrest, and declining economic growth are a few of these.
His analysis of China is also nearly completely dependent on a single source - Lee Kuan Yew, the first Prime Minister of Singapore. Allison treat Lee Kuan Yew as if he were the only opinion worth hearing and definitely doesn't explore any alternative views on China's nature or future.
Although the analysis of China could be much more sophisticated or nuanced, this isn't a book about China, but instead focuses on the dynamics between rising and established powers, so I don't think this is a huge detraction. "Destined for War" is well worth a read, and the issues it discusses are worth much more thought.
For those who don't know, Thucydides's Trap is named after the Greek historian Thucydides's description of the Peloponnesian War and the dynamics that led up to it. Sparta, the ruling power in Greece at the time, was threatened by the rise of Athens. Athens felt that Sparta was trying to keep it down and determined to destroy it. Neither city wanted war, but they ended up in an enormously destructive war anyway.
Allison explores the question of whether or not the US and China can avoid this same dynamic. He describes the phenomenon of Thucydides's Trap, the recent history, current situations, and likely futures of the United States and China. He also goes through a collection of historical examples, some of which feature countries that successfully managed their rivalries without war, and many more that ended up in bloody conflict. He also discusses several hypothetical scenarios that could lead the US into a war with China.
Allison then talks about weaknesses in the current US approach to dealing with China and some possible--and more coherent--alternative approaches to dealing with Beijing. Allison does a great job presenting these option without any discernible bias, despite the various approaches running the gamut from a conciliatory approach where the US abandons Taiwan and South Korea, to a full on Cold-War-style containment policy where the US would actively try to subvert the Chinese Communist Party.
Although Allison's book is engaging and thought provoking, it is not without substantial weaknesses. The biggest weakness is that his analysis of China is simplistic and leans in China's favor. He treats China's continued rise and eclipsing of the United States as a foregone conclusion, despite some very real and difficult challenges in China's future. Mounting debt, ethnic unrest, and declining economic growth are a few of these.
His analysis of China is also nearly completely dependent on a single source - Lee Kuan Yew, the first Prime Minister of Singapore. Allison treat Lee Kuan Yew as if he were the only opinion worth hearing and definitely doesn't explore any alternative views on China's nature or future.
Although the analysis of China could be much more sophisticated or nuanced, this isn't a book about China, but instead focuses on the dynamics between rising and established powers, so I don't think this is a huge detraction. "Destined for War" is well worth a read, and the issues it discusses are worth much more thought.
dale_kooyenga's review against another edition
4.0
Want to be scared? Shake Stephen King and read this book. It's real, America will be challenged for the rest of my lifetime by the unknown intentions of China. The book fired me up personally. America will never be the largest nation - India is larger, China is larger and even Nigeria will pass us up in population shortly. Technology and productivity keep us ahead of potential adversaries and allow our nation (freedom and liberty loving) to fill vacuums over communist and totalitarianism regimes. What if they steel technology? What if America backs down from our global leadership position? Who will feel the vacuum. Forget being a military intelligence officer, businessman and elected official - being a father is enough to light a fire. America needs to come together, solve problems and ensure we're dealing with threats that may arise. China is a threat. America, let's get it together.
mj470's review against another edition
4.0
This book never loses sight of it's thesis which really helps the reader maintain the context for historical points. I learned a lot about the importance of cold war diplomacy. I wouldn't have come across this book on my own but when Elon Musk posted about it I decided to give it a try. I'm glad I did. I feel like I understand what's at stake now between the US and China. I also have the historical context to understand the patterns in the balance of power.
mayatentoni's review
informative
tense
fast-paced
3.0
The writing style is easy to comprehend, without sacrificing the complexity that the topic requires.
I appreciated practical and specific examples, as well as some suggestions from the author on how to proceed with regards to keeping US-China relations peaceful.
The approach is definitely historical, though it seemed to me that some events were treated with insufficient depth.
Overall interesting ideas, presented in an accessible way.
I appreciated practical and specific examples, as well as some suggestions from the author on how to proceed with regards to keeping US-China relations peaceful.
The approach is definitely historical, though it seemed to me that some events were treated with insufficient depth.
Overall interesting ideas, presented in an accessible way.
carriebethreads's review against another edition
4.0
Very interesting. Not as doomsday as the title may suggest. I knew very little about the details of China's Rising power, but though complex, this book was written clearly for an audience with just a bit of knowledge. networking cable news do not have the time nor attention span to go into depth on issues. I appreciate deeper dives written for lay audience.