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carolyn1504's review against another edition
5.0
Limits to Growth is a powerful reminder that infinite growth on a finite planet is not possible. We are already living well beyond anything that is sustainable and yet very little is being done to curb the exponential growth in areas that matter. This book was first published in 1972. We have just passed it’s 50th anniversary and in recent interviews with Dennis Meadows his sense of despair is tangible. So what can we do? The authors describe 5 tools needed for the survival of society - visioning, networking, truth-telling, learning and loving. Will this be enough? Perhaps not, but what they will do is provide your life with meaning, purpose and the courage required to transverse the challenging times ahead.
thejdizzler's review
5.0
Hard to believe this book was written 16 years ago. Since then, both the environmental movement and the denialist movement have both grown in strength, but we seem to have made little progress in making the changes that the three authors lay out here.
The authors make the case through computer models that the way our current system is set up, we will overshoot our planets resources, which will lead to a collapse in human flourishing. I am a computer scientist, I haven't looked deeply at their model, but from the explanations they give in the text, their math seems sound.
This book, and the other things I have read or watched this summer have convinced me that I need to do more to fight climate change. I'm already vegan, but I can reduce my impact more, by reducing waste but most of all through being politically active and contributing to change in my community.
The authors make the case through computer models that the way our current system is set up, we will overshoot our planets resources, which will lead to a collapse in human flourishing. I am a computer scientist, I haven't looked deeply at their model, but from the explanations they give in the text, their math seems sound.
This book, and the other things I have read or watched this summer have convinced me that I need to do more to fight climate change. I'm already vegan, but I can reduce my impact more, by reducing waste but most of all through being politically active and contributing to change in my community.
ernestleberbe's review against another edition
5.0
Although the 30 year update to a 1972 MIT systems modelling study may seem extremely niche and irrelevant to most, I genuinely see this book as an unmissable staple for anybody wanting to seriously consider the problem of sustainability on a global scale. The first edition is of relatively strong historical importance and is often quoted in ulterior environmental literature (any JMJ-curious reader ought to check Limits to Growth), but I would say it is well worth reading this updated version instead, as there is a lot of added content and value from 30 years' worth of observations accumulated since the initial publication. It is quite striking in some places, for example when the authors discuss their conclusion that achieving sustainability with standards of living similar to that of Western Europeans was possible for the whole world population still in 1972, but no longer was in 2002 as the pollution and environmental overshoot continued practically unopposed for three decades in the interim.
Before the modelling or its interpretations are even discussed, the book lays basic principles that, although they may seem obvious to some, are fundamental in understanding how sustainability issues arise and how they can lead to collapse - yet are largely absent from public debate. The very principles of exponential growth and its tendency to suddenly turn unmanageable, the issues arising from noisy signals and adjustment delays, and the implication on demographic growth and the rise of environmental impact govern the way human society and its environment interact, and are key foundations that should underpin any political agenda on the matter. The book also does a great job of giving the reader a sense of just how rapid and uncontrolled human growth has been as it lays out dire statistics on land use, deforestation, industrial output, drops in mining yields, and many others - statistics which become all the more ominous when one considers they are now 20 years old -, without falling into the trap of drowning the reader in endless numbers. The numbers the authors do give are concise, relevant, and despair-inducing.
The modelling itself starting in chapter 4 is equally despairing as it shows just how narrow the window of opportunity is - even worse, how narrow it already was 20 years ago - for humans to achieve a society that isn't likely to collapse. The actual graphs and details of the study are completely secondary to their discussion by the authors - including the aforementioned long prefacing section -, which is where most of the book's value lies. In their desire to provide a scientifically robust discussion, the authors employ a language and writing style that may deter some (although this remains very far from the dryness of an academic paper), but which provides invaluable lessons still. In their desire to show the reader glimmers of hope, the authors also do feel a bit overly optimistic or utopian almost in places, especially as the chapters go, which isn't necessarily detrimental to the book but certainly was not my favourite aspect of it.
The Limits to Growth is not a long book. Its first three chapters especially are an essential read. Although it is not at all meant to function as a predictive model, which the authors stress several times in the text, several later works have found a remarkable correlation between reality and the projections of its 'business as usual' model developed to describe what happens when human society does not take efficacious action towards sustainability. Looking at the continuation of the projection makes this a deeply scary thought.
Before the modelling or its interpretations are even discussed, the book lays basic principles that, although they may seem obvious to some, are fundamental in understanding how sustainability issues arise and how they can lead to collapse - yet are largely absent from public debate. The very principles of exponential growth and its tendency to suddenly turn unmanageable, the issues arising from noisy signals and adjustment delays, and the implication on demographic growth and the rise of environmental impact govern the way human society and its environment interact, and are key foundations that should underpin any political agenda on the matter. The book also does a great job of giving the reader a sense of just how rapid and uncontrolled human growth has been as it lays out dire statistics on land use, deforestation, industrial output, drops in mining yields, and many others - statistics which become all the more ominous when one considers they are now 20 years old -, without falling into the trap of drowning the reader in endless numbers. The numbers the authors do give are concise, relevant, and despair-inducing.
The modelling itself starting in chapter 4 is equally despairing as it shows just how narrow the window of opportunity is - even worse, how narrow it already was 20 years ago - for humans to achieve a society that isn't likely to collapse. The actual graphs and details of the study are completely secondary to their discussion by the authors - including the aforementioned long prefacing section -, which is where most of the book's value lies. In their desire to provide a scientifically robust discussion, the authors employ a language and writing style that may deter some (although this remains very far from the dryness of an academic paper), but which provides invaluable lessons still. In their desire to show the reader glimmers of hope, the authors also do feel a bit overly optimistic or utopian almost in places, especially as the chapters go, which isn't necessarily detrimental to the book but certainly was not my favourite aspect of it.
The Limits to Growth is not a long book. Its first three chapters especially are an essential read. Although it is not at all meant to function as a predictive model, which the authors stress several times in the text, several later works have found a remarkable correlation between reality and the projections of its 'business as usual' model developed to describe what happens when human society does not take efficacious action towards sustainability. Looking at the continuation of the projection makes this a deeply scary thought.
janlo26's review against another edition
5.0
Each and every one of us has a reason to read this book. The survival of our species is at stake and we cannot ignore it any longer. Some possiblities for changing our course are offered.
inquiry_from_an_anti_library's review against another edition
challenging
informative
reflective
medium-paced
4.0
The purview of this book is the physical economy which are constrained by physical laws of a planet. Money economy is a social invention which is not bound to physical laws. Resources and sinks are needed to sustain the ecosystem. Renewable resources do regenerate, but these resources need time to regenerate. Should their extraction rate be faster than the rate they regenerate will reduce the stock. Nonrenewable resources are those which continuously reduce the total stock and will need to be substituted for should the stock run out. New source discoveries can increase the available stock, but the total stock of the resource will still diminish. The environment can recycle pollutants but if there are too many pollutants in the environment can overwhelm and destabilize ecosystem. The authors findings indicate that resources are being used too quickly and that the burden of waste on the environment is already showing negative impacts on health.
The authors created varies simulations based on system dynamics to show potential futures. The models show that resources needed for an expanding population and physical products will have to cope with many problems arising due to varied constraints. More and more capital inputs will be needed to deal with the problems. Eventually, capital will not be able to cope with increased problems thereby making further industrial growth impossible. The authors do not profess to accurately predict events, but they do claim to be able to rule out potentialities given current knowledge. They attempt to properly define expectation of resources use in the future. Their hope is that their predictions will be a catalyst to take action to make their predictions wrong. The authors use their expertise in dynamic systems to elaborate their values. They try to have an internally consistent paradigm which focuses on the changes in interconnections between material and immaterial elements.
The authors express three potential futures which are sigmoid growth, overshoot and oscillation, and overshoot and collapse. Sigmoid growth occurs when limits are respected and the responses to signals are quick and accurate which results in a smooth accommodation to the limits. Overshoot and oscillation occur when limits are surpassed and there is a delay in response. The corrections reduce stress on limits while over time overshooting them again until some equilibrium is set. Overshoot and collapse occur when the there is a delay to overstressed environmental limits which degrade the resource base leading to collapse.
Many systems tend to overshoot due to rapid change, limits to change, and limits in controlling the change. The problem is not with growth but exponential growth. With linear increase, the new stock does not depend on how much has already been accumulated which means that problems can be foreseen more easily and corrected. Exponential increase in new stock is proportional to what is already accumulated which means harder to control, predict interactions, and course corrections. Exponential growth cannot continue ad infinitum as there are only a finite amount of resources and space. With exponential growth, there is less time to take effective action.
Growth oriented policies are favored because they seem to fix a variety of national ailments. The authors favor a sustainable society which has the ability to rectify mistakes and increase quality of life rather than reckless abandon consumption. To rectify many problems will take a structural change in the system, not growth. Current practices need to change to sustain life within the ecosystem. Resources are needed to sustain life but the resources may not be sufficient. Agriculture is able to feed many more people but feed them inadequately. Recent increased agricultural was due to many policies which damaged the very environment needed to produce food.
The book is well written and provide some epistemological references to understanding the model. There are sections of the book which read like a technical manual on resources which at times can distract from the general situation. They provide complexity within the details. They do provide evidence that world change can save devastation with policies such as those which prevented further damage to the ozone layer. Even though this is a 30-year update to the original book, the authors do not give much references any major changes within the predictions and results.
What is needed is a structural change away from growth policies to a sustainable system. Technology can reduce some stress on the ecosystem but it will take social consumption changes to get to the root problem. Within the current economy, there are many techniques which can utilize resources more efficiently thereby providing more time to make other changes. What is needed is more accurate and constant information regarding the various sources and sinks. Transitioning to a sustainable system does not require no economic growth. Economic growth is permissible in the system, but that resources need to be used in a sustainable manner.
The authors created varies simulations based on system dynamics to show potential futures. The models show that resources needed for an expanding population and physical products will have to cope with many problems arising due to varied constraints. More and more capital inputs will be needed to deal with the problems. Eventually, capital will not be able to cope with increased problems thereby making further industrial growth impossible. The authors do not profess to accurately predict events, but they do claim to be able to rule out potentialities given current knowledge. They attempt to properly define expectation of resources use in the future. Their hope is that their predictions will be a catalyst to take action to make their predictions wrong. The authors use their expertise in dynamic systems to elaborate their values. They try to have an internally consistent paradigm which focuses on the changes in interconnections between material and immaterial elements.
The authors express three potential futures which are sigmoid growth, overshoot and oscillation, and overshoot and collapse. Sigmoid growth occurs when limits are respected and the responses to signals are quick and accurate which results in a smooth accommodation to the limits. Overshoot and oscillation occur when limits are surpassed and there is a delay in response. The corrections reduce stress on limits while over time overshooting them again until some equilibrium is set. Overshoot and collapse occur when the there is a delay to overstressed environmental limits which degrade the resource base leading to collapse.
Many systems tend to overshoot due to rapid change, limits to change, and limits in controlling the change. The problem is not with growth but exponential growth. With linear increase, the new stock does not depend on how much has already been accumulated which means that problems can be foreseen more easily and corrected. Exponential increase in new stock is proportional to what is already accumulated which means harder to control, predict interactions, and course corrections. Exponential growth cannot continue ad infinitum as there are only a finite amount of resources and space. With exponential growth, there is less time to take effective action.
Growth oriented policies are favored because they seem to fix a variety of national ailments. The authors favor a sustainable society which has the ability to rectify mistakes and increase quality of life rather than reckless abandon consumption. To rectify many problems will take a structural change in the system, not growth. Current practices need to change to sustain life within the ecosystem. Resources are needed to sustain life but the resources may not be sufficient. Agriculture is able to feed many more people but feed them inadequately. Recent increased agricultural was due to many policies which damaged the very environment needed to produce food.
The book is well written and provide some epistemological references to understanding the model. There are sections of the book which read like a technical manual on resources which at times can distract from the general situation. They provide complexity within the details. They do provide evidence that world change can save devastation with policies such as those which prevented further damage to the ozone layer. Even though this is a 30-year update to the original book, the authors do not give much references any major changes within the predictions and results.
What is needed is a structural change away from growth policies to a sustainable system. Technology can reduce some stress on the ecosystem but it will take social consumption changes to get to the root problem. Within the current economy, there are many techniques which can utilize resources more efficiently thereby providing more time to make other changes. What is needed is more accurate and constant information regarding the various sources and sinks. Transitioning to a sustainable system does not require no economic growth. Economic growth is permissible in the system, but that resources need to be used in a sustainable manner.
marmottestar's review against another edition
hopeful
informative
inspiring
reflective
slow-paced