Take a photo of a barcode or cover
4.3 AVERAGE
4.3 AVERAGE
Having read and enjoyed more of Michael Lewis' books, this one feels like the odd one out. While the subject of the book is of course highly relevant, the balance between context, backstory and actual observations and narrative feels way off, with a huge emphasis on the former elements. Some parts, like how the head of the CDC became a political appointee instead of a career civil servant are lightly touched upon and additionally this is only covered in the final part of the book whereas there are key insights in the workings of the CDC in earlier sections where this would have been relevant information. This lack of logical structure, which happens more often does not help either.
Reading the acknowledgements gives a hint as to why the book is, the way it is: it is a weave of personal narratives that Lewis got into contact with, instead of an overarching narrative supported by personal stories.
Not a recommended read.
Reading the acknowledgements gives a hint as to why the book is, the way it is: it is a weave of personal narratives that Lewis got into contact with, instead of an overarching narrative supported by personal stories.
Not a recommended read.
The story of all the potential help and preparations that were available before and after the start of the pandemic that were ignored, diminished, and dismissed because they didn't fit someone's politics or someone's narrative. There's enough blame to go around twice, but this book will leave you pissed, and disappointed, in equal measures, with the CDC. Americans shouldn't die because "that's the way we've always done it".
Fantastic
A riveting read and a searing indictment of the CDC's inability to DO anything, whether about COVID or anything before the pandemic. Fortunately Lewis also tends a story about several people who WOULD do, or say, something...
A riveting read and a searing indictment of the CDC's inability to DO anything, whether about COVID or anything before the pandemic. Fortunately Lewis also tends a story about several people who WOULD do, or say, something...
Who would have thought that "A Pandemic Story" from the non-fiction department could be such a page turner? Well, Michael Lewis thought it, and anyone who has read other works by him should have thought it, too. After all, this is the guy who wrote a riveting book about measuring the right things (with Moneyball.)
I reserve 5 star reviews for books that change me in some way, change my thinking, or challenge my assumptions, even my self-identity. Premonition does all those things.
By its nature, a pathogen can only be stopped if those charged with stopping it are able to make decisions before there is any data to back them up. Those decision makers could be right, and ever after lauded as heroes. Or they might be wrong, in which case they become the goats, perhaps scapegoats. The upshot is that leaders must have the courage of their convictions. Even - and this is the really hard part - the courage to trust their instincts (premonitions) and take action before they can explain why. Yikes.
This book challenged my strongly-held belief that the pandemic could have been avoided if someone else, anyone else, had been president. Probably that is still true with regard to its worst effects, its super high numbers, the stuff that caused America to lose more people per capita than any other country. Truly disastrous decisions did come out of the Trump White House and Trump CDC that would not have been made had George Bush or Barack Obama or Hilary Clinton been president. His disdain for expertise of any kind empowered the peddlers of disinformation to overrule experts. But what Lewis reveals is that Bush or Obama or Clinton might well have exacerbated a whole different problem: the paralysis of analysis.
Decision making in the absence of data takes courage, and our systems are not designed to promote that. While state and local public health officials are waiting on guidance from the CDC, the CDC is working to develop more information to support their guidance writing. The flaw in "we will make decisions based on science" is that science is too slow in a pandemic. The carefully-crafted reputation the CDC had for being correct came at the cost of being speedy. Rather than being the Centers for Disease Control, the author notes, it might more accurately be called The Centers for Disease Observation and Reporting. With a rapidly-spreading virus, not acting until we are certain has deadly consequences. If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.
The lead characters in Premonition took action based on their hunches. Charity Dean had a history of closing things down before she could prove a pathogen could spread if she didn't. Carter Mecher didn't know if the reproductive rate of the virus was 2 or 3 but he could still go forward with calculations that demonstrated the utility of interventions like distancing and masks. But who wants to take responsibility for a decision like closing the schools before we can prove the virus spreads in schools? No one in our government. And that is a problem.
Michael Lewis doesn't mean to lead people to the same conclusions he has. He means to find and present stories that inform the reader's own thinking so that we take from it what we will. So, what does it profit me to have read this book, to have met these characters? What could be different about me now? It's the courage bit. It's in acting according to what I believe is right, based on instinct or based on data. The courage to live with the consequences of my decisions, no matter whether I am judged right or wrong by others afterwards. That's the inspirational part. That's my takeaway. Thank you, Mr. Lewis. What a gift!
I reserve 5 star reviews for books that change me in some way, change my thinking, or challenge my assumptions, even my self-identity. Premonition does all those things.
By its nature, a pathogen can only be stopped if those charged with stopping it are able to make decisions before there is any data to back them up. Those decision makers could be right, and ever after lauded as heroes. Or they might be wrong, in which case they become the goats, perhaps scapegoats. The upshot is that leaders must have the courage of their convictions. Even - and this is the really hard part - the courage to trust their instincts (premonitions) and take action before they can explain why. Yikes.
This book challenged my strongly-held belief that the pandemic could have been avoided if someone else, anyone else, had been president. Probably that is still true with regard to its worst effects, its super high numbers, the stuff that caused America to lose more people per capita than any other country. Truly disastrous decisions did come out of the Trump White House and Trump CDC that would not have been made had George Bush or Barack Obama or Hilary Clinton been president. His disdain for expertise of any kind empowered the peddlers of disinformation to overrule experts. But what Lewis reveals is that Bush or Obama or Clinton might well have exacerbated a whole different problem: the paralysis of analysis.
Decision making in the absence of data takes courage, and our systems are not designed to promote that. While state and local public health officials are waiting on guidance from the CDC, the CDC is working to develop more information to support their guidance writing. The flaw in "we will make decisions based on science" is that science is too slow in a pandemic. The carefully-crafted reputation the CDC had for being correct came at the cost of being speedy. Rather than being the Centers for Disease Control, the author notes, it might more accurately be called The Centers for Disease Observation and Reporting. With a rapidly-spreading virus, not acting until we are certain has deadly consequences. If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.
The lead characters in Premonition took action based on their hunches. Charity Dean had a history of closing things down before she could prove a pathogen could spread if she didn't. Carter Mecher didn't know if the reproductive rate of the virus was 2 or 3 but he could still go forward with calculations that demonstrated the utility of interventions like distancing and masks. But who wants to take responsibility for a decision like closing the schools before we can prove the virus spreads in schools? No one in our government. And that is a problem.
Michael Lewis doesn't mean to lead people to the same conclusions he has. He means to find and present stories that inform the reader's own thinking so that we take from it what we will. So, what does it profit me to have read this book, to have met these characters? What could be different about me now? It's the courage bit. It's in acting according to what I believe is right, based on instinct or based on data. The courage to live with the consequences of my decisions, no matter whether I am judged right or wrong by others afterwards. That's the inspirational part. That's my takeaway. Thank you, Mr. Lewis. What a gift!
What a timely page turner. Wasn't sure I was ready to read about the COVID-19 pandemic yet, but I'm really glad I did. Read it.
A must read
This book brought out so many emotions. Rage, incredulity, sadness. Our government systems are broken and this book shines a light on that fact with a laser focus. Its Nike a Democratic or Republican issue. Both sides are complicit in breaking the system.
The worst part is that we lived through a pandemic that was badly mismanaged and probably haven't learned anything from it.
This book brought out so many emotions. Rage, incredulity, sadness. Our government systems are broken and this book shines a light on that fact with a laser focus. Its Nike a Democratic or Republican issue. Both sides are complicit in breaking the system.
The worst part is that we lived through a pandemic that was badly mismanaged and probably haven't learned anything from it.
In the final weeks of 2019 and first weeks of 2020, a few Americans among us saw a potential public health disaster approaching from across the Pacific. Who knew what might happen, and what we should -- and could -- do about the novel coronavirus sickening people in Wuhan? This book tells the behind-the-scenes story of some of the experts in the U.S. who best knew how to respond, and the political roadblocks complicating that response.
As a layperson, I thought this book was an excellent contemporary history of the U.S. coronavirus response. Actually, it doesn't even reach the coronavirus pandemic until more than halfway in. The beginning establishes the main players in the story and the reality of the public health system in the U.S., which Charity Dean characterizes as a patchwork of thousands of local health offices with little central leadership from national institutions. To my surprise, I thought that all of the background history leading up to coronavirus was the strongest part of the book.
The final chapter is also as gripping as it is dispiriting, as it details the process of politicization within the CDC starting with the Reagan administration, which helped foster an environment where -- as Michael Lewis describes it -- courageous leadership is more likely to result in punishment than reward.
The emergence of any new threatening pathogen naturally creates a "damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't" challenge for leaders. If you overreact and implement preventative measures for a pandemic that never arrives, you cried wolf. If you under-react -- or react too slowly -- well, you could have over 600,000 dead in a little over a year.
The best any leader can do is make an educated prediction of what might happen, and try their best to implement a plan for the rest of us. And then, rather unfairly, we all get to judge their decisions afterwards with the enormous benefit of hindsight. If I have one main takeaway from this book, it's that there are really smart, really good people out there, and we are all better off when the best people for the job are in the driver seats when things go south.
As a layperson, I thought this book was an excellent contemporary history of the U.S. coronavirus response. Actually, it doesn't even reach the coronavirus pandemic until more than halfway in. The beginning establishes the main players in the story and the reality of the public health system in the U.S., which Charity Dean characterizes as a patchwork of thousands of local health offices with little central leadership from national institutions. To my surprise, I thought that all of the background history leading up to coronavirus was the strongest part of the book.
The final chapter is also as gripping as it is dispiriting, as it details the process of politicization within the CDC starting with the Reagan administration, which helped foster an environment where -- as Michael Lewis describes it -- courageous leadership is more likely to result in punishment than reward.
The emergence of any new threatening pathogen naturally creates a "damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't" challenge for leaders. If you overreact and implement preventative measures for a pandemic that never arrives, you cried wolf. If you under-react -- or react too slowly -- well, you could have over 600,000 dead in a little over a year.
The best any leader can do is make an educated prediction of what might happen, and try their best to implement a plan for the rest of us. And then, rather unfairly, we all get to judge their decisions afterwards with the enormous benefit of hindsight. If I have one main takeaway from this book, it's that there are really smart, really good people out there, and we are all better off when the best people for the job are in the driver seats when things go south.
4.75 stars
Because of various health issues, my family has kept up with Covid from the beginning so I thought I was pretty well versed in the virus but I learned a lot from this book. There is no doubt it would be in the US no matter what was done - that’s the nature of today’s world - but it didn’t need to be as devastating as it has been. Our government chose not to listen to experts and pretend nothing was happening. Our public health system is a mess - it’s full of political appointees who only want to please their bosses.
Even with such a grim topic, the book is engaging. I thought it was well researched and informative but be forewarned, it is discouraging and disturbing.
Because of various health issues, my family has kept up with Covid from the beginning so I thought I was pretty well versed in the virus but I learned a lot from this book. There is no doubt it would be in the US no matter what was done - that’s the nature of today’s world - but it didn’t need to be as devastating as it has been. Our government chose not to listen to experts and pretend nothing was happening. Our public health system is a mess - it’s full of political appointees who only want to please their bosses.
Even with such a grim topic, the book is engaging. I thought it was well researched and informative but be forewarned, it is discouraging and disturbing.
The destruction from COVID was so, so preventable, if only the government had actually cared…