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3.72 AVERAGE
3.72 AVERAGE
A must read. Our whole world is crazy, thinking that the average is normal and the extreme is abnormal. In fact, it’s the extreme and unpredictable events that are becoming more and more normal and influential.
There is always the possibility of a change that will upend our lives and beliefs.
informative
slow-paced
Il Cigno Nero di Nassim Nicholas Taleb è un’analisi affascinante e provocatoria degli eventi rari e imprevedibili che hanno un impatto enorme sulla nostra vita e sulla storia. Il libro introduce il concetto di "Cigno Nero" per sfidare le teorie tradizionali sulla previsione e sulla causalità, suggerendo che molti eventi significativi sono imprevisti e non seguono modelli lineari.
Taleb offre una prospettiva unica e controcorrente, incoraggiando a focalizzarsi sugli effetti di tali eventi piuttosto che sulle probabilità di occorrenza. Nonostante la narrazione ricca di esempi e ironia renda il testo stimolante, la lettura può risultare complessa e difficoltosa per chi cerca una divulgazione più semplice. Tuttavia, per chi è pronto a confrontarsi con idee complesse sull'incertezza e il rischio, Il Cigno Nero è una lettura altamente stimolante e illuminante.
Taleb offre una prospettiva unica e controcorrente, incoraggiando a focalizzarsi sugli effetti di tali eventi piuttosto che sulle probabilità di occorrenza. Nonostante la narrazione ricca di esempi e ironia renda il testo stimolante, la lettura può risultare complessa e difficoltosa per chi cerca una divulgazione più semplice. Tuttavia, per chi è pronto a confrontarsi con idee complesse sull'incertezza e il rischio, Il Cigno Nero è una lettura altamente stimolante e illuminante.
informative
reflective
medium-paced
NNT has a lot of good ideas in Black Swan.
It would be a better book if NNT spent less time telling us how smart these ideas are.
It would be even better still if he spent less time inventing needlessly flowery terminology and admitted that not all of the content is wholly original. There's one section in particular where he gives a comprehensive explanation of survivorship bias without ever using the term survivorship bias whilst actively complaining that there isn't a proper term in use for what he is describing (survivorship bias).
It would be a better book if NNT spent less time telling us how smart these ideas are.
It would be even better still if he spent less time inventing needlessly flowery terminology and admitted that not all of the content is wholly original. There's one section in particular where he gives a comprehensive explanation of survivorship bias without ever using the term survivorship bias whilst actively complaining that there isn't a proper term in use for what he is describing (survivorship bias).
informative
reflective
slow-paced
informative
medium-paced
challenging
informative
reflective
slow-paced
I feel that many non-fiction "idea" books could be better summarized in a lengthy essay; The Black Swan is no exception. While the idea is fantastic and important, Taleb's writing would benefit greatly from the editors he so deplores. Read for the ideas, not the writing.
Aggressive and arrogant, but also brilliant and practical. Definitely see why it was so influential (especially since it came out in 2007, right before the crash of 08).
Quotes
- "We do not spontaneously learn that we don't learn that we don't learn."
- "Reality provides such forced revisions of beliefs at quite a high frequency."
- "Mistaking a niiave observation of the past as something definitive or representative of the future is our one and only cause of our inability to understand the black swan." Ex. A turkey farm observing every day of the year of data before Thanksgiving.
- "We cannot manufactor more information than the past can deliver...we just don't know how much information there is in the past."
- "... principle aim is to not be a sucker in things that matter...all I care about is making a decision without being the turkey."
- 'how do you cross the street with so much risk consciousness? I'm just trying to avoid crossing the street blindfolded.'
- "We tend to use knowledge as therapy."
- "True, our knowledge does grow, but it's threatened by greater increases in confidence."
- "Looking busy can help you claim responsibility for the results in a random environment. The appearance of busyness reinforces the perception of causality, of the link between results and ones roles in them."
- "I'll never get to know the unknown.... however, I can always guess how it can affect me, and I should base my decisions around that..... I don't know the odds of an earthquake, but I can imagine how San Francisco might be affected by one."
- 'an average human would have to be half male and have female.'
- "'I had to invent my predecessors so people take me seriously' he once told me. And he used the credibility of big guns as a rhetorical device. One can always ferret out predecessors for any thought.... the brand name goes to the one who connects the dots, not the one who makes a casual observation... in the end it's those who derive consequences and seize the importance of the ideas, seeing their real value, who win the day."
- "Ideas come and go, stories stay."
Quotes
- "We do not spontaneously learn that we don't learn that we don't learn."
- "Reality provides such forced revisions of beliefs at quite a high frequency."
- "Mistaking a niiave observation of the past as something definitive or representative of the future is our one and only cause of our inability to understand the black swan." Ex. A turkey farm observing every day of the year of data before Thanksgiving.
- "We cannot manufactor more information than the past can deliver...we just don't know how much information there is in the past."
- "... principle aim is to not be a sucker in things that matter...all I care about is making a decision without being the turkey."
- 'how do you cross the street with so much risk consciousness? I'm just trying to avoid crossing the street blindfolded.'
- "We tend to use knowledge as therapy."
- "True, our knowledge does grow, but it's threatened by greater increases in confidence."
- "Looking busy can help you claim responsibility for the results in a random environment. The appearance of busyness reinforces the perception of causality, of the link between results and ones roles in them."
- "I'll never get to know the unknown.... however, I can always guess how it can affect me, and I should base my decisions around that..... I don't know the odds of an earthquake, but I can imagine how San Francisco might be affected by one."
- 'an average human would have to be half male and have female.'
- "'I had to invent my predecessors so people take me seriously' he once told me. And he used the credibility of big guns as a rhetorical device. One can always ferret out predecessors for any thought.... the brand name goes to the one who connects the dots, not the one who makes a casual observation... in the end it's those who derive consequences and seize the importance of the ideas, seeing their real value, who win the day."
- "Ideas come and go, stories stay."