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3.71 AVERAGE
3.71 AVERAGE
This book took me 10 months to read. It was interesting; it made me think; I don't understand enough to provide a coherent summary.
This is a refreshing presentation of a sometimes-neglected aspect of critical thinking, that of making sure our understanding of situations and our plans include allowance for unexpected, possibly unprecedented, events with huge impacts.
These events are jumbo-sized examples of what military planners tend to call "friction" (half of the pair of conditions that destroy any attempt at complete control of events in war (the other half is "fog", i.e. the information we need but don't have.)
The author eloquently makes the case that it's better to plan in general terms but stay alert and flexible in the face of possible change, rather than planning in minute detail and then using centralized-authority micromanagement to carry out the plan. As he points out, the most influential events of the last couple of hundred years (and in most people's lives) are not planned and most often not seen coming.
If I could, I'd make this required reading for all leaders and planners in every sector of our society and economy.
These events are jumbo-sized examples of what military planners tend to call "friction" (half of the pair of conditions that destroy any attempt at complete control of events in war (the other half is "fog", i.e. the information we need but don't have.)
The author eloquently makes the case that it's better to plan in general terms but stay alert and flexible in the face of possible change, rather than planning in minute detail and then using centralized-authority micromanagement to carry out the plan. As he points out, the most influential events of the last couple of hundred years (and in most people's lives) are not planned and most often not seen coming.
If I could, I'd make this required reading for all leaders and planners in every sector of our society and economy.
An expansion on the ideas of Fooled by Randomness.
I really liked the earlier book; this one not so much. Book two of the Incerto series seems less well organized without much expansion on the ideas in book one.
The author spends a lot of time digging into his detractors, hitting the same issues from different approaches, and name dropping.
Nevertheless, I was following along until he started making weird assumptions, like "one person, one vote," and how poor people control the system in a democracy, that we know not to be effectively true, even if true in theory. I started questioning what he was saying. It feels like he's advocating gaming the system while decrying those who treat real life systems like games, and advocating survival of the fittest while claiming that people shouldn't have to absorb risks caused by others. I notice that he has stopped harping on how randomness determines a lot of success, now that he is a successful author.
Yet a lot of this is good advice, or at least seems good advice. It's hard to know. But the good advice seems very general: Don't assume you can predict the unpredictable. Eliminating stupid risks is an overall success strategy, because you tend not to weed yourself out. Theories should be built from facts, not the reverse.
I recommend Fooled by Randomness, but not Black Swan, despite this being the more famed book. The same ideas are presented more simply and clearly, at less length.
I've decided to keep reading the series, since this line of thinking seems likely to influence others, but I'm not going to rely on finding much more wisdom than was in book one.
I really liked the earlier book; this one not so much. Book two of the Incerto series seems less well organized without much expansion on the ideas in book one.
The author spends a lot of time digging into his detractors, hitting the same issues from different approaches, and name dropping.
Nevertheless, I was following along until he started making weird assumptions, like "one person, one vote," and how poor people control the system in a democracy, that we know not to be effectively true, even if true in theory. I started questioning what he was saying. It feels like he's advocating gaming the system while decrying those who treat real life systems like games, and advocating survival of the fittest while claiming that people shouldn't have to absorb risks caused by others. I notice that he has stopped harping on how randomness determines a lot of success, now that he is a successful author.
Yet a lot of this is good advice, or at least seems good advice. It's hard to know. But the good advice seems very general: Don't assume you can predict the unpredictable. Eliminating stupid risks is an overall success strategy, because you tend not to weed yourself out. Theories should be built from facts, not the reverse.
I recommend Fooled by Randomness, but not Black Swan, despite this being the more famed book. The same ideas are presented more simply and clearly, at less length.
I've decided to keep reading the series, since this line of thinking seems likely to influence others, but I'm not going to rely on finding much more wisdom than was in book one.
Amazing. Perspective changing. Everyone should read it. It's a bit of a slog at times and feels a bit long but I also didn't find it inaccessible and he mentions that some math heavier sections are totally skipable
A modern philosophy masterpiece. If it was up to me this would be required reading in schools. Almost as good as Antifragile as a whole but certainly complementary. I will try to read Antifragile for a 3rd time now that I'm finished with this one, probably not the whole thing but definitely the parts I misunderstood on "Extremistan" vs "Mediocristan".
Durcheinander. Wirtschaft ist eben keine Mathematik.
slow-paced
I love statistics but I had a hard time connecting with the writing or organization of the book.
Since I've read some of Taleb's other books reading this too was almost overkill. Still, I like the ideas that he champions and I couldn't resist thinking about them again now that I'm living in France, where things may be less efficient but otherwise seem more time-proven and resilient to unforseen shocks than in the US.
Found meat of the book around page 200, will soon go back with a pencil to underline. After getting through the meat you can safely ignore the rest - I didn't and it was a loss of time. Somehow I haven't googled Mandelbrot yet...
Found meat of the book around page 200, will soon go back with a pencil to underline. After getting through the meat you can safely ignore the rest - I didn't and it was a loss of time. Somehow I haven't googled Mandelbrot yet...
Let me save you 400 pages of reading:
DON’T WEAR TIES.
ECON NOBEL BAD.
FAT TAILS GOOD.*
* for analysis of social matters
DON’T WEAR TIES.
ECON NOBEL BAD.
FAT TAILS GOOD.*
* for analysis of social matters